I’d like to leave behind, for now, the debates over whether health care reform (especially in its current state) should pass; there are plenty of threads for that.
All signs in the media (which could very well be wrong; feel free to debate this if you think so) say that if it’s going to happen at all, it will happen sometime in the next week. Certainly Republicans (not necessarily THE Republicans) think so, given the new TV ads opposing the plan. So, my questions are:
Will it pass, by hook, crook, or whatever method you care to imagine?
If not, is it completely dead for all time and forevermore?
Is this the absolute key to Democratic chances in November, for good or ill?
Is this the absolute key to Obama’s chances in '12, as Jim DeMint has said? Or is that the economy? Or whoever is put up to run against him?
If the media/pundit hype is wrong, when will the final push be? For that matter, do you agree that it would be “final”?
There’s pretty much only one available choice for passing it, which is the method their using. Pass the Senate bill through the House, then pass some changes through reconciliation. I think that will probably work, though the House vote will be close. If it doesn’t work, however, I don’t think there’s any other do-able option. If the vote this week fails, its dead as far as the current Congress is concerned.
The problems it seeks to address are just going to keep getting worse and worse with time. The expense of care will grow, forcing more people off insurance and tearing a larger and larger hole in the federal budget. I don’t think that can continue indefinately into the future, someone at some point is going to have to address it with some sort of legislation (even if the current bill passes, it will just be a first step, further bills will probably be necessary), but their job will be much harder if the current bill fails.
Not “absolutely key”, but I think the Dems will be better off if they pass it. Voters hate loosers, not delivering on their major policy proposal is gonna further lock in the voters view of the Dems as worthless and ineffectual.
I think the economy will be a much larger factor, one way or the other. Obviously failing in one of his primary campaingn goals from the '08 election wouldn’t help him, though.
With respect to the second question, note that they’ve been trying to do some kind of universal health care since FDR, and every time it fails it gets pushed down the road 10/15 years and, more importantly, the next effort is less ambitious. So if this isn’t done now, it’ll be a long time before anyone tries again, and it’ll do even less to address the core problems than this bill does.
Will it pass, by hook, crook, or whatever method you care to imagine?
You can believe that the arm twisting and back room deals being done right now are off the chart. Right now I’d give even money. Too close to call.
If not, is it completely dead for all time and forevermore?
Dead for a least a decade
Is this the absolute key to Democratic chances in November, for good or ill?
Yes. After the loss in Massachusetts, the Dems had a choice. They could reposition themselves the way Clinton did in '94, or they could go all in. They have chosen to go all in. Barring a 9/11 level event or another economic crash, this will be the defining event of the next election.
Is this the absolute key to Obama’s chances in '12, as Jim DeMint has said? Or is that the economy? Or whoever is put up to run against him?
Yes. Same reason as above.
If the media/pundit hype is wrong, when will the final push be? For that matter, do you agree that it would be “final”?
The Dems themselves have made this the “now or never” moment. I think that it will be done in the next 2 weeks or not at all.
Yes I think it will pass by the end of this week. There is an overwhelming political incentive for the Dems to pass it including those Dems who are most vulnerable in November. Dropping the bill won’t win them any moderates but will thoroughly demoralize their base in a mid-term election: a certain recipe for disaster. This is all the more true because a House majority has already voted for a health bill and will be attacked for it even if this bill fails.
On balance I think passage will help Democrats. There is enough in the bill which will kick in the next few months and they can campaign on it. Success on such a huge bill will itself generate momentum and energize their base. It will also divide the Republican party. The Tea Party set will want the GOP to campaign in November for a repeal but others will be reluctant to repeal a bill of which significant parts, at the least, will be popular.
Ultimately, however the state of the economy in November will matter more than the health bill.
1) Will it pass, by hook, crook, or whatever method you care to imagine?
Maybe. The Roman Catholic Church is the single mightiest religious body in the country, & they ostensibly want it to pass.
2) If not, is it completely dead for all time and forevermore?
This proposal? Maybe. But UHC in general? Of course not.
Is this the absolute key to Democratic chances in November, for good or ill?*
No. It may be part of the whole, but really there are several things going: There’s a certain fatigue with the Tea Party noise which may induce some potential Dem voters to just give up & let them in to try to block Obama. This probably wouldn’t help the anti-Obama side except for a particular mix of economic pessimism & unwillingness to lay the blame for that on the GOP. On the other hand, Obama is very popular for a Prez mid-recession, & the Dems can count on holding most of their House districts.
4) Is this the absolute key to Obama’s chances in '12, as Jim DeMint has said? Or is that the economy? Or whoever is put up to run against him?
Nope. DeMint is engaging in exaggeration. Something else will be the “absolute key to Obama’s defeat” if this passes. Obama is probably going to be re-elected whether this passes or not. The outcome of the UHC fight will be (falsely) credited with the nature of the rest of his term–whether he’s more an FDR or a Bubba Clinton–by future historians & most likely by future me.
5) If the media/pundit hype is wrong, when will the final push be? For that matter, do you agree that it would be “final”?
There is no final until we get single-payer. But I suppose you mean the final push this session? October?
If this goes down to defeat, I would love to run for Congress on single-payer this year. I don’t believe in giving up. Right now, the clock is running out for me to register with a party–& I may have to do the petition thing anyway.
Really, the great disaster for the Dems is that they don’t already have their campaign in place for the fall. Nomination moments are passing by. They should be putting candidates out there to represent UHC, but they’ve let the GOP define UHC as somehow against the voters, which is silly.
Too early to tell. It depends on the state of the economy at that time.
Possibly. At this stage, though, I think that passage of the bill through the process they are trying will hurt the Dems and Obama more than if it doesn’t passes.
If they fail this week, we’ll have to wait for the next congress.
Question: What if some of the changes they try to pass through reconciliation are not what the reconciliation process is for? What actions may be taken at that point?
My understanding is that the Senate Parliamentarian is responsible for deciding what can be passed using reconciliation. Things that do not pass muster are subject to a re-opening of debate (i.e., filibuster), and thus would derail the entire process.
I am aware of that. I should have been clearer. Is the Senate Parliamentarian the final word? What happens if his judgement runs afoul of constitutional principals, for instance. Or against the spirit of the Reconciliation Act? Can the Republican leadership challenge his rulings?
He’s in charge of making sure Senate rules are followed, I doubt constitutional principals would be relevant. But in any case, he can be over-ruled with 60 votes.
It’s going to be close, but yeah…I think it will. It will be a watered down and bastardized end product, even after they ‘fix’ it on the fly, and it will be essentially rammed down the Republican’s throats with little or no support from them, which is going to come back to bite bottom in the future…but, yeah, I think they will get it done. Were I a betting man, however, I wouldn’t wager any of MY money on the outcome…
Naw…reform is coming. If it doesn’t happen this time it will probably be a while, but as with Social Security, eventually we are going to need to do something about the real underlying issues.
What form that this will take, either this time or in the future, is really up in the air…but SOME reform is, IMHO, inevitable.
I doubt it. The key for the Democrats will be how the wars in Iraq (and the withdrawal) and in Afghanistan are going, how the job market is doing, and the general state of the economy. If things are still shitty come the election from the perspective of jobs or the economy, then I think some Dems will probably lose their seats…with or without this reform going through.
I seriously doubt it. Clinton didn’t get many of his programs through in his first term, yet pretty easily got re-elected. As with the above, I think Obama’s re-election will hinge on how the economy is doing. If it’s good, then he’ll get his second term. If it remains flat or gets worse, then things will be up in the air. It also depends on who the Republican’s actually run.
Just a nitpick – many Dems will lose seats this year, period. The current Democratic majority is huge – 75 seats. There are a lot of reasons for that, the two biggest being George W. Bush and Barack Obama. But in the House, where the whole thing resets every cycle, such majorities are simply unsustainable. There pretty much aren’t any Republican incumbents in competitive districts who can be picked off, because they all lost in '06 or '08. At the same time, there are a ton of vulnerable Dems in districts that by all rights should have never elected a Democrat. A success for the Dems is losing 15-20 seats. Losing 30 seats still gives them a comfortable majority (about what the GOP had in 2005-06).
Now, I agree that whether this bill passes isn’t nec. going to be the most important consideration for voters in November. However, passage is good for the Dems politically for all sorts of reasons. First, they already passed a version of the bill, so any political heat they could get, they’re already going to get. But nothing succeeds like success, so the “it didn’t pass, it must suck” assumption will be replaced by “it passed, it must have something going for it” assumption. And it will take away the impotence argument. Finally, it’s a great bill, and it will on day one start making big improvements in the lives of many people (even if, admittedly, the really big payoffs are years down the line). Some of those people will vote.
Learned a new word today: “deeming”. I guess Pelosi has figured out a way to pass the Senate bill without having to actually vote on it, or at least that’s how it was explained on MSNBC this AM. There isn’t even a wikipedia link on “deeming” yet.
Will it pass, by hook, crook, or whatever method you care to imagine?
It will pass by the means most people think- razor thin margin in House, reconciliation to fix it, then win about 55-45 in Senate and maybe 220 votes in House.
If not, is it completely dead for all time and forevermore? At least for a generation, or the death of the Republican Party.
Is this the absolute key to Democratic chances in November, for good or ill?
No, once it’s done with then the sole metric will be unemployment. >10% = Republican Congress, <8% = Goodbye GOP chances.
Is this the absolute key to Obama’s chances in '12, as Jim DeMint has said? Or is that the economy? Or whoever is put up to run against him? No way. The economy or a terrorist attack.
If the media/pundit hype is wrong, when will the final push be? For that matter, do you agree that it would be “final”? If not this week, then never.
Eh, it’s nothing new. Pelosi in fact was party to a lawsuit claiming it unconstitutional. The suit failed. So, “deem and pass” is perfectly valid.
There is a vote. The vote just says “we approve these things, and oh by the way, we also deem the Senate bill to be passed”.
There is some variation in how it could work (whether the Senate bill is deemed passed as soon as the House votes on the reconciliation package or whether it is deemed passed once the Senate approves the reconciliation package) but none of it is new or particularly concerning.
As for my answers to the OP’s questions:
Yes, it will pass. Probably with 218-220 votes in the House and 53-55 in the Senate.
If it doesn’t pass it won’t until the Dems get 60 again, or until the situation gets so untenable that the GOP gets on-board.
It is not the key to the fall elections, but it is important. A win is a win, and victories breed victories in politics (likewise defeats breed defeats). A more important issue is unemployment, IMO.
It is somewhat irrelevent to 2012. Other issues (including the economy, the state of the wars, and plain ol’ personal charisma) are much more important in presidential elections.
If it fails in the House vote this week (probably Friday or Saturday) then it is dead for this presidential term at a bare minimum.
What really annoys me is all the headlines today saying some variation of “House trying to pass Senate bill without vote”. Which is a blatant distortion of what they are doing. There will obviously be a vote, on a bill which will contain language that affirms assent to the Senate bill, as well as modifications to said bill.
In the end it’s all laughable though - the public doesn’t give two shits about process. They just want to know who won and who loss. Knowing the Dems, they’ll find a way to lose, but I’m Charlie-Brown-level optimistic today.