How about you say why you think that? Wisconsin isn’t particularly gun crazy. Looking at a few places, it seems in the bottom ten of gun ownership by state. Nor do I see why it’s an obvious truth that swingable Trump voters are disproportionately gun lovers.
Motown sings the Dem debates (from Colbert): Motown Sings The Debates - YouTube
Let’s be a little more precise. They have virtually no predictive value for results in The next general election that far away. They still are good reflections of where voter thoughts are today. That is of some value. Just not predictive value.
As to gun control. SCOTUS had made it very clear that extreme measures can’t get through and gun rights people know that. It is a more important issue now in the minds who want some control than to those who fear gun grabbing. The NRA right now is on its heels.
Gun rights are not going to be the issue of most importance to those Obama-Trump voters but gun control within the SCOTUS framework may contribute to increased turnout for D nominee.
Specific to WI a 3/18 poll New Marquette Law School Poll finds Wisconsin voters divided on benefits of Foxconn deal, but together in support of background checks for gun sales – Marquette Law School Poll
Increased background checks inclusive of gun shows and private sales has wide support. 42% of those in gun owning households even support the banning of assault style weapons.
Odds are that the overlap between being gun owners opposed to those sorts of gun control measure and those who might be convinced to move from Trump to a D nominee is near zero. Those are the Trump base people.
There are tens of millions of them.
There are around 80 Million gun owners in the USA, all adults. The NRA commands 5 Million of them, leaving like 70 million or so as 'swing". That’s more than voted for either Hillary or trump. Many casual gun owners voted for Hillary- like I did. Hardly a “shrinking minority”.
Yes, the 5 Million or so NRA voters are pretty solid as a "tribe’, and are solid GOP. Those are a tiny minority, like 5% or so.
Because the vast majority of casual gun owners dont care that much about assault weapon bans. They dont own one, and in general are Ok with mild gun control, laws that wont stop them from owning their guns. They own perhaps a .22 rifle, a shotgun, a deer rifle, maybe a handgun for defense. NRA gun nuts call them “Fudds”.
But a law that would force them to get a national gun permit? Nope, nope, nope. Won’t fly in Peoria.
The data disagrees.
Going more broadly than WI here’s a recent (3/22/19) Quinnipiac poll.
“50. Do you support or oppose requiring individuals to obtain a license before being able to purchase a gun?”
Support is 65% of Republicans and 75% of Independents. (Ds not surprisingly up at 92%.)
White no college degree support it at 72%!
Heyell!.. support is at 60% for gun owners.
Being against it is what doesn’t fly … anywhere, Peoria inclusive (but IL pretty safe).
Ok, hopefully you are right. (No guns in my household, or in those of anyone I know AFAIK, so maybe I am making assumptions about people in my general region that are not correct.)
As for those Dem contenders who think the path to winning is denigrating President Obama like they did in the last debate, those are nothing more than lowlife fucks. But I would still vote for them over Chump, just be holding my nose while I do it. Lookin’ at YOU, Kamala Harris.
Go, Biden!
I am going to assume here that a lot of the respondents interpreted the word “license” as “some form of ID”, like a driver’s license. I cannot believe that such a high number of Republicans would be in favor of some kind of gun-specific license.
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B0v_F5VHkN_/?igshid=1rf83n8wjjx58
I believe Beto is on strong moral ground here, but it could be politically risky to use language this unhedging in calling out the president. Of course he doesn’t have much to lose, given his diminished standing in the race, so it will be interesting to see what happens to his campaign as a result.
I think speaking that way is an asset in the primary. It would have been even more of an asset if he deployed that kind of emotional and off-the-cuff statement during the actual debate - it would have raised his profile tremendously. I don’t think it would help in the general election, the candidate needs to run on something other than “fuck Trump”, though.
Good points.
I watched Beto debate Cruz before these two democratic debates. I just don’t think debating is his strength. He talks too fast, hands all over the place and takes on too much at once.
What makes him a captivating candidate is his ground game and personality. He is real. He is passionate about people and getting to engage with them and speak to them about their lives, their hopes and their fears. That’s what can propel his candidacy — debates are great for talking heads and soundbite narratives but generally they don’t create a big difference. Certainly not this early.
Of course, a great ground game in one state (even a state as large as Texas) is not the same thing as a great ground game nationwide. It was possible for Senate candidate O’Rourke to personally visit every county in Texas. It’s not possible for Presidential candidate O’Rourke to personally visit every county in the US.
But if O’Rourke ends up taking an active role in the Texas branch of the eventual nominee’s ground game, that’s all to the good.
Do you really believe that the vast majority of Republicans and gun owners are that stupid? I don’t. I’ve come across some very very intelligent people who happen to own a gun or more.
But for kicks, and not a national survey, just Delaware, but SurveyUSA …
Pretty hard to misunderstand that.
Strong R support or strongly support together is 65%. R 71%. Majorities of gun owners too.
Across the spectrum this is mainstream thinking.
Well, yes maybe, but that’s not what Booker wants. That is requiring a license in order to purchase a firearm. Booker wants a license in order to OWN a firearm, which is a entirely different idea. And that wont play in Peoria.
Texas is a very weird state to make this argument about if you ask me. How many states into the primary calendar do we have to get before we have covered as much population and/or land area as Texas?
I agree completely.
He looks nervous when he’s on stage debating with other people, but he’s in his element when he’s working crowds or just one-on-one with people.
I guess it depends on the suburb.