So you simply reject that past performance can be predictive of future performance? Do you not have a regular barber, plumber or anything?
I’ll let Slacker go hunt for the cite if he wants to, but I’m pretty sure the 538 article that discussed Warren’s relatively anemic performance in MA did include data showing that historically, underperformance in State elections is highly correlated with underperformance in Federal elections.
Hello, Mr. Excluded Middle! How are you today?
Yup. It’s almost like we are all part of the same American culture, and the voters who know her best now can tell us something (adjusted for demographics just like pollsters do) about the voters who will get to know her well in a general election race. Imagine that!
And what are the voters who know her best telling us, beyond “not as many of us voted for her as you would expect”?
I think Warren has gotten considerably better, even in just the last few months, at campaigning. I don’t know if this explains why she didn’t win by huge margins in Massachusetts, but it might explain why she’s continuing her slow-but-steady rise in the primary.
But I’m not even sure if she’s my top choice – just that she’s grown considerably on me, and I think she has considerable potential. But we’ll see.
That her appeal is limited to those who never vote for Republicans. The voters we can get with any nominee.
Mike Gravel just dropped out and endorsed Bernie. This could be just the break…well, no, probably not.
Aren’t we done with this yet? Let’s stipulate:
- You really don’t like Elizabeth Warren as the dem nominee.
- She underperformed in MA in the last senate election.
OK? We all agree with these two things. Let’s move on…
I won’t be done with it as long as people keep writing posts about how she looks electable to them.
That could work, I am not fond of that idea, but I dont hate it and I could see it being acceptable. Of course the devil is in the details. If they have one qualifying class a year, costing $5000 then that’s just banning guns.
Perhaps we could all spend less time attacking the other Dem candidates and instead talking about issues and who you support?
I’m not convinced that any of the top 5 dems have an especially strong case to make for electability.
Biden is too old to even speak coherently any more, which means he will only continue to drop in the polls as people realize that.
Sanders is a socialist who is feared by moderates but also doesn’t speak convincingly to racial justice issues, cutting out two important Dem constituencies.
Harris has no coherent policy or values and so she comes across as inauthentic–progressives don’t believe she is progressive and moderates don’t believe she is moderate.
Buttigieg is a gay, 30-something, ex-McKinsey mayor of a small town.
Warren is a wonky professor and so-so public speaker who people, especially a certain kind of man, seem to instinctively dislike.
All of them can beat Trump. None of them will do so easily. And if you think it is obvious which one is best I think you’re fooling yourself. Which means in the primary we should probably just vote for who we think would be the best President.
I agree that the Top 5 is far from the most electable group. I am still holding out hope that someone from the lower tiers, preferably one of the governors, will rise into contention.
I don’t support candidates based on “issues”. I wish they would spend a lot less time committing themselves to specific positions, and a lot more mouthing gauzy platitudes that sound inspirational to low-information swing voters.
QFT.
Biden just gave an immense speech.
I understand the concerns about Biden’s age and stamina but increasingly I think he is the best bet. The biggest reason are the general election polls and every month that passes they should be taken more seriously. He continues to blow Trump out of the water, by much bigger margins than any other candidate. I am increasingly convinced that they represent something real. I think the last few weeks have been a valuable robustness check for his campaign. He had a bad first debate got pilloried in the media and his numbers did drop sharply. However they seem to have recovered almost completely which suggests that his support isn’t weak and just based on name recognition. He also improved his debating performance which shows that he can adapt and raise his game.
I think a central fact of US politics is that the voters are moving left but quite slowly while many Democrats are moving left too fast making them more electorally vulnerable than they should be. Bernie and Warren are betting on the belief that voters want a “revolution”. I don’t think that is true. I think they want a competent decent administration similar to Obama’s maybe a bit to his left on some economic issues. That is what Biden is offering.
Yes.
BUT- he needs a young, progressive Veep, in case he can’t make to a second term. I think his health will hold out, at least as much as trump’s will.
Most coherent speech he has given in years. Maybe he has it in him after all.
I agree with almost all of this, but wow does it require serious grading on a curve to say that was a strong debate performance.