Regardless of whether the margin of error is 2% or 6%, the main takeaway is that Biden no longer has a big lead over everyone else.
Morning Consult has released a new poll
“The latest results are based on 17,303 survey interviews conducted between August 19-25, 2019”
Biden 33%, Sanders 20%, Warren 15%, Harris 8%
According to that Biden has gone up 2 points
My point is, no you can’t. You are comparing it to previous polls that didn’t have such a large margin of error.
You’re unduly focused on margin of error. Lots of things affect the accuracy of polls. Margin of error is just one of them. You are wrong to conclude that the Monmouth poll is necessarily less accurate than prior polls just because it has a larger MOE.
One pretty important factor in accuracy is how long before the thing you’re interested in the poll was taken. If I have a poll with an MOE of 6% and a poll that is three months older with an MOE of 3%, I’d make my predictions off the new one, all else being equal.
Another important factor is how good the pollster is, since they make all kinds of expert decisions and decisions about resources in the design and operation of a poll.
I tend to think the Monmouth poll is probably an outlier that understates Biden’s support. But it’s pretty silly to disregard it because of the MOE if you’re otherwise interested in analyzing single polls.
But the point is, even if Monmouth did everything else perfectly, they still have a 6% margin of error due to their large sample size. That’s a margin large enough that it means that this result is actually consistent with other polls that put Biden in a large lead.
I’m sorry but that is very wrong. If you are analyzing a single poll, the MOE is quite important. What this poll said was that with 95% accuracy , Biden is polling within 13-25% and Warren/Sanders at 14-26%. That’s a big range.
That’s not how polling works, in my understanding – yes, there could be an error, but it’s just as likely to be the other direction as in Biden’s favor. It’s consistent with other polls that show an extremely tight 3-way race between Sanders, Warren, and Biden (if there are any such polls). It’s no more consistent with polls that show Biden with a big lead than it is with polls that show Biden way behind.
For comparison, if this poll had an MOE of 2%, we’d be looking at 17-21% Biden and 18-22% Warren&Sanders. Does that not look like a tighter race?
Eta: what polls show Biden way behind iiandyiiii?
If all we had was this one poll, then yes, it’d be equally consistent with Biden being a good bit ahead or Biden being a good bit behind. But we don’t just have this one poll. We have lots and lots of other polls that show Biden a good bit ahead, and none at all that show him a good bit behind.
Right, so it may well be an outlier. But this poll isn’t “consistent” with other polls that just so happen to lie with the MoE – that’s not what MoE means. It’s consistent with itself or other extremely close 3-way ties (if there are any). It’s not consistent with polls that show very different results. At least by my understanding of the word “consistent”. If you just mean that this doesn’t disprove other polls, then fine – I agree with that.
This is way more discussion than needed for a single poll this early. It’s almost meaningless, just like any other single poll this early. Only trends and aggregates tell us anything… and this early, even trends and aggregates don’t tell us much.
None that I’m aware of.
point of fact, iiandyiiii is trailing way behind Biden, by like, a lot.
Also, commas!
I bet in a poll of the Dope, I could get a decent percentage if I were matched up against Biden… 
Ok, could you stop acting like we’re living in a magical world where nothing has happened yet? Biden has not been way behind in any polls and this is the first 3 way tie. Those can inform your opinion, we aren’t living in Theoreticalia. What do you disagree or not understand about these posts:
I’m not sure what you’re disputing that I’ve said. None of these posts appear to conflict with mine, AFAICT.
Well the problem is that all you’re saying is “I like this poll” and “hey, let’s not worry about the MOE”. So, yeah you’re disagreeing with me. And frankly, since your disagreements are so nonsensical and you don’t seem to really be engaging with my actual argument, that’s enough for me.
I don’t think that’s what I’m saying, but thanks for the discussion!
EDIT: If you think I’m wrong, please point to the specific posts, and the specific sentences, that you think are incorrect. AFAICT you haven’t really done that, and IMO you seem to be disagreeing with straw men.
That is what you’re saying, you just aren’t bright enough to see it.
Best wishes to you and family! I hope y’all are doing great.
Chill out. Disagree but keep personal shots to the Pit.
[/moderating]
Something about my posting style seems to really piss off a very small but still non-zero percentage of Dopers. I’m usually just trying my best to explain my opinions. Apologies for whatever it is that’s a turnoff for some.