I’m not even thinking in terms of which position would sell better, Biden’s centrism or Warren’s not-so-centrism; I’m thinking Trump won against Hillary Clinton not so much due to her positions, but by attacking the messenger rather than the message (and if I’m wrong about that — if Hillary’s loss to Trump was due to the message and not the messenger — then I figure the Dems have waaay bigger problems).
And the thing is, while the Dems are already able to rail against Trump, we still don’t know if it’ll be Biden or Warren or Sanders or Harris or Buttigieg or whoever: the GOP hasn’t yet started throwing absolutely everything they’ve got at one designated target. I don’t know what that is, but it seems a lot like the oft-stated point about how (a) the polls might show the incumbent losing to A Generic Democrat, but (b) he of course actually winds up running against Some Specific Candidate; and they’re not going to break out the big guns now, even if we assume arguendo that they have excellent stuff to use against one or two of the candidates and nothing much for use against the rest — because it’d be unimaginably dumb for them to presently torpedo any candidacy they’d be expecting to ably torpedo later.
Bernie’s health scare is a big blow to his campaign and will probably hurt Biden too since he is almost as old and Democrats are terrified of exactly this scenario in the general election especially in the final months. Warren’s chances of getting the nomination are looking even better though she will still be very much a beatable candidate in the general not least because her candidacy will open the floodgates to massive amounts of corporate money trying to stop her. It’s going to be a nerve-wracking 13 months with the future of liberal democracy hanging in the balance…
Monmouth (A+ rated) now with Warren nationally up 3. YouGov up 4.
Whether or not she’s taken the title yet, this is enough I think to declare that Biden is no longer a clear frontrunner. I’m beginning to view this as hers to lose. Which once she gets tested as presumptive frontrunner is quite possible to happen … or not! I really hope she proves she has the stuff.
Bernie’s done for, although I’m not so sure his support goes to Warren.
Although I have made no secret of the fact that I think Warren is a very poor choice of nominee, I’m not convinced massive corporate money goes against her in 2020. Trump is not exactly doing the economy any favors with his chaotic incompetence. They might sit this one out and then go big against her in 2024 if the Republicans nominate a normal corporate type a la Romney. And that’s the real problem with nominating Warren. She can beat Trump because almost anyone can, but she will be very vulnerable to being defeated for reelection.
This Hunter Biden thing gives Joe an opportunity to show his ability to reach across the aisle to talk to all those Republican Senators he gets along so famously with, right?
Was this really that long ago, before the GOP started throwing everything they have against Biden? I’m still of the opinion that Harris of Buttigieg would be better at representing the more centrist wing of the party in a general election compared to Biden. OTOH I think they should stand in solidarity with Biden against what is happening and shouldn’t use this to try to benefit themselves. I still think best case scenario is Biden and Sanders step aside. If they both drop out I think it would turn into a Warren on the left vs. either Harris or Buttigieg from the center during the primaries.
Here is Nathan Robinson explaining why it absolutely must be Bernie and not Elizabeth Warren. Robinson is an influential writer on the left and my guess is that there are a lot of people out there who think exactly like this. This explains why Bernie’s support will stay hovering around 15%, and combined with the big fundraising haul, I expect that will be sufficient to convince Bernie to stay in the race to the bitter end, health problems and third-place standing in polls be damned.
Yeah, the GOP and the Kremlin are still attacking Joe and not Warren.
Mayor Pete can’t win the general. A openly gay man wont play in Peoria, not in 2020. I hope and prey that America changes enough so that he can win in 2028. But not in 2020.
Harris is not a moderate and doesn’t even poll well in California. She also joined Beto and Booker in advocating Gun Grabbing, so she also can’t win in the general.
I don’t know why people keep pointing to his being gay as the major problem. If he were an experienced senator or something, I think that could actually be OK. It’s the fact that he is the mayor of a small city and looks like a teenager that is much more of the problem.
I live near South Bend and what strikes me is that in the national media, no one seems to care whether he’s actually done a good job as mayor. The city has a reputation for bad government and corruption, and just reading the South Bend Tribune would give anybody plenty of material to work with if they wanted to imply that the city is badly run under Buttigieg:
Apparently he’s surprised that, if present trends continue, the first openly gay president is more likely to be quite young, rather than a more typical age for presidents.
I, too, was taken aback by the verbiage. (I think he’s using “flamer” incorrectly, anyway — AFAIK, it doesn’t imply a age range).