I think Biden is definitely the candidate MOST likely to rebound from a third or fourth place finish here, but obviously he wouldn’t be considered the front runner anymore.
They’re actually talking about this on the 538 live chat: apparently New York and Illinois come pretty close.
Sorry, Iowa shit kickers, but your idiocy just cost you first in the nation status – or at least it should.
I think the Dems outsourced App creation to Blizzard. You never get a day-one working launch with those clowns.
Fuck it, I’m going home.
So it looks like the candidates gave their speeches in the order in which their supporters had to go to bed.
Hmm. Biden is demanding that candidates be briefed about the reporting issues and have a chance to respond…BEFORE any results can be made public. Doesn’t sound like he’s got great expectations.
tweet from Norah O’Donnell with the Biden letter
I saw a comment on the Yang sub that I hope is a joke. He said that he was stuck at the caucus site, waiting for the app to function, because he was told that his vote wouldn’t count if he left.
The whole thing sounds like a crazy process.
ETA: The wild rumors swirling around. Wow.
They are not voting by app. You are misunderstanding the process used in the Democratic caucuses in Iowa.
The process starts with some opening and admin stuff.
Then they sit around and talk for a bit.
After the talking, everybody goes to stand in different parts of the room while caucus officials count them. That is “voting.” There are no ballots cast let alone secret ballots. This year they introduced improved paper trails and taking photos of the groupings to try and reduce concerns about the counts. Those counts will be reported this year as the first alignment. The state party didn’t even used to report that count. Those that stood in the area for a candidate who has enough people to break threshold, called being viable, are then locked in. They can stay to try to convince other people or go home.
Then they sit down and talk some more while people try to convince each other to change their minds. It is followed by another round of breaking into groups and being counted for those that supported a non-viable candidate in the first round. That didn’t use to be reported either. This year we will get the numbers for the second alignment reported.
- There used to be a third round of talking and standing in corners that wasn’t reported. This year they stop at two.
The caucuses are then over. The actual delegate selection process to the national convention is just beginning. The caucuses select precinct level delegates to a serious of conventions that culminate in the state convention. That state convention actually decides on the final delegates to the national convention…usually in June. That isn’t a result that anybody wants to hear. So based on the reports from all the precincts of their final alignment the state party creates an estimate of how those delegates will break out. That gets reported. It used to be the only result Iowa reported.
That is where the app comes in this year. It is a way for precincts to report their results to the state party so the state party can make a totally non-binding but usually reasonably accurate estimate. More numbers are being reported than ever before. Iowa tried being a little bit higher tech than just making a phone call. There weren’t any votes happening by app.
Combined they have a little over 17% of the national convention delegates this year. They also have some of the most expensive media markets in the country. Mix big fields, like this year, with proportional delegate allocation and it can be hard for even a solid winner in both states to break 50% of total pledged delegates.
If your goal is increasing the importance of money in presidential politics and increasing the likelihood of Democratic nominees being selected in smokey back rooms at brokered conventions this is a good plan. If that is not your goal… :smack:
Damn, Buttigieg is long winded. Of course, how often does a candidate get basically unlimited free national airtime?
This shit just keeps getting weirder. The Iowa Democratic Party held a conference call with representatives of all the campaigns which got heated (duh) and ended with the IDP guys HANGING UP ON the campaigns. WTF is the matter with these people?
When the establishment pivots away from Bidens uselessness and puts all its chips in Buttigieg.
I thought you might be talking about Bernie, who definitely gets more airtime than he deserves. And, I think Bernie knows a few things himself about being long winded.
OK, which small state, then?
Actually, how about ‘which small state is most demographically similar to the ~60% of the U.S. that you’d have left, after you toss out the ~40% that would never ever ever vote for a Dem?’
Connecticut? Rhode Island? Delaware?
Damn.
Really, can this be the LAST FREAKIN’ IOWA CAUCUS EVER???
One can only hope.
Remember when it took over a month to figure out who won the 2000 election? (OK, they didn’t really ever figure it out, but let that be.) Remember when they took about six months to decide the race for Minnesota’s Senate seat in 2008-2009? Let’s see if Iowa can compete with the big boys. 
I like the system proposed here a few months ago by I don’t remember who: the states go in order of their absolute margin of victory in the last Presidential election, the purplest states first. That would take into account both their swinginess and their smallness.
That is such an awesome idea.
Thanks, dale–for awhile now I’ve been wanting your hot take on Bernie Sanders! Now that I have it, I feel satisfied!