She hates Pete so if she dropped out I could see her endorsing Biden and/or getting offered the VP slot.
I like Amy but she’s got nowhere to go after New Hampshire. Her numbers with black voters are as bad as Pete but less talked of since he stole the thunder of being the young, moderate alternative to Biden.
I’m still hesitant to make a hard call, but again if these numbers remain the same, all I can say is that Biden has had his own lane to run in for the last year, and the result could be a fourth place finish - that’s not a strong candidate. That’s not an Obama-like performance. That’s not a Hillary-like performance. The donors who spotted him tens of millions of campaign cash wanted better than that, I can assure you. And Biden isn’t going to beat Bernie at grassroots online fundraising, so he’d better convince big benefactors that he’s worth their time and money.
I don’t put too much in Iowa caucus results, despite its past predictive record. But if Biden again is out of the top three in New Hampshire, a real primary, then his one big selling point, his electability, deflates.
I personally am of the impression that Biden’s support among Black voters is less based on his Obama association than the perception that he has the best odds of beating Trump. Remember that Obama did not have much Black voter support until he won Iowa proving whites really would vote for him. With that belief in doubt they are ripe for being sold on others’ electability pitches.
I think he can survive even a third in New Hampshire and still recover in South Carolina enough to stay a real contender, but not another 4th place finish.
ISTM that the Iowa results increase the chances of a multiple votes convention dramatically. Be curious to see how 538’s model cranks it out!
I think Biden needs to do well in either NH or NV in order to have a chance of winning big in SC. If it develops that Black voters are the only group solidly in his camp, and that they are there mostly because they perceive him as being electable, well…
My WAG is that Nate’s model will spit out something like
Sanders 40%
Contested Convention 25%
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 12%
Warren 3%
Field <1%
I’m not sure about that model, though. It appears from this recent article that the model will give Pete a 26% chance of winning the nomination if he ends up finishing .01% ahead of Bernie in Iowa, and a zero percent chance if he finishes .01% behind. Intuitively that seems dubious.
His plan is working perfectly!
This article notes, among other things, that Biden was hoping for a straight up Biden vs. Bernie fight, which would have played to Uncle Joe’s advantage. Now that popular perception is starting to see it as a 6-person race instead of just Biden vs. Bernie, Biden is now in big trouble. There’s no particular *reason *for Democratic centrists to go Biden when they still have multiple alternatives to *both *Biden and Bernie.
And Nate JUST dropped his analysis while I was typing that!
If we consider Buttigieg the winner: Sanders 36, CC 26, Biden 21, Buttigieg 10, Warren 7
If we consider Sanders the winner: Sanders 64, CC 16, Biden 14, Warren 6, Buttigieg 1
If we call it a tie: Sanders 48, CC 23, Biden 17, Warren 7, Buttigieg 5
So his model obviously gives a huge bonus for winning in Iowa, even very narrowly. I think in this case, with no clear winner and the actual results being overshadowed in the media by the vote counting fiasco, the best guess would probably be a cross between the “tie” scenario and the pre-Iowa probabilities (i.e. the “Iowa bump” is likely to be smaller than usual this cycle).
Averaging those two together, we’d get
Sanders 40
Biden 30
CC 20
Warren 6
Buttigieg 4
Voters in NH will react to this result. Biden’s main selling point has been his inevitability. But you can’t claim inevitability with a 4th place finish on a date that’s been on everyone’s calendar since January 2017.
Consider this: Biden was leading the national polls. Moreover, two candidates, Biden and Buttigieg, had a unique advantage in that they could tour the state while Sanders and Warren were confined to the Senate for impeachment – and yet it appears Biden placed last out of those 4.
Buttigieg simply outworked Biden, doing 5 stops for Biden’s 3. But more than that, both Warren and Sanders just seem to connect with voters more.
Yeah, I agree that Biden’s chances are probably lower than the projections above, given how badly he lost.
Is Buttigieg just as acceptable (to the establishment) as Biden?
In terms of his policies being nonthreatening to the oligarchic ruling class, yes. I think many of them may have doubts about his electability, either because of his youth or gayness or because they can read the polls which show him as the weakest of the major candidates in matchups against Trump.
No way can a openly gay man win in 2020. That is very sad. I hope things will be different and Pete can get some national experience and run in 2028.
I still think Biden is the best bet to beat Trump and before this I thought he was in a very good position to win the nomination. However, based on polls, I was expecting an OK performance in Iowa, maybe second or a close third at worst. Right now it is looking like fourth place which does put him in a tough spot. Still, NH does have an independent streak as displayed in 2008 and the whole counting mess will probably provide him some cover. His worry now is that Pete will get a big bounce and push him to third place and Warren is not that far behind either.
I agree that electability and being the front-runner has been a big part of Biden’s strength and he doesn’t have a lot going for him if he loses it. He is not the best campaigner. He doesn’t have a lot of money. The media doesn’t like him much.
On the flip side the moderate lane still looks very divided between him, Pete,Bloomberg and Klobuchar. He may not need that many votes to win this lane and if he does that the endorsements and money will start to pour in helping him to beat Bernie.
People bristled at the idea that things like Citizens United would end up with elections being decided by those with big bucks. This primary is going to go to the guy with big bucks: It’s Bloomberg all the way. Money will buy it all.
Well, let’s not get carried away. The Iowa results will shake things up somewhat, but right now he’s still getting more support in national polls than the other three moderates put together.
But no doubt, he’s gone from being the favorite to playing catch-up here. Sanders looks like a near lock to win NH, but Biden, Warren and Buttigieg are all bunched up behind him, and even Klobuchar is trending up. The difference between second and fifth could be quite small in terms of votes, but huge in terms of perception.
Holy shit! 538 model now has Sanders as the favorite in South Freakin’ Carolina.
Got a link for that? Biden still ahead on this page.
Nope, that’s what I was looking at. Looks like some new polls have been added in the last couple hours. He did say the model would be prone to dramatic swings for the next few days.
But both the new polls have Biden way ahead, one by double digits. Musta been some backstage flub up.