In this poll, Bernie has indisputably pulled into the lead.
Another national poll with Sanders leading released today, pushing him a few tenths of a percent ahead of Biden in the 538 average.
Good. That should freak out a few more people to Bloomberg’s camp!
The numbers are far apart, but I wasn’t expecting to see Biden right next to Yang on the NH RCP.
My lord, get a grip. There is a top 4 currently. It should not surprise you that the lowest of the top 4 is “next to” someone from the lower pack.
Klobuchar has now moved to 3rd ahead of Biden and Warren, which pretty much seals Biden’s fate going forward. Klobuchar will take away the precious ‘centrist’ oxygen that Biden needs to keep going. The problem is, Klobuchar might also blunt Bloomberg’s rise.
Top 5 actually; Klobuchar is also ahead of Biden. And that average isn’t even counting Bloomberg.
Why is that a problem? 
For all the worry in certain quarters that the Dem establishment will sabotage Bernie, they certainly seem to be doing a terrible job of it!
Bernie vs. all of the non-Bernies would be the dream scenario for Bernie. Repeat of Trump-in-GOP-land 2016.
Yes, I realized too late I’d forgotten Klobuchar.
As far as the next tier goes: Yang, Stier, Gabbard and Bloomberg are 2-3% on 538.
No. There is an important difference between Dem and Repubs. Dems have no winner-take-all primaries.
But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally.
(I noticed a good article and wanted to bump our “Politics today are controlled by Liars” thread or whatever it’s called. But I couldn’t find that thread. Where is it? It is the Number #1 headline of today’s politics. I’ll post a link here as a place-holder and hope some eloquent Doper will start the important thread on this topic.)
Political discourse and elections today are controlled by liars — whoever is adept at clever lies win. Good-spirited parties — like the Democrats — don’t approve of lying; thus they are destined to lose. This is not true just in the U.S. — some other countries around the world are following in the U.S.'s footsteps. All other political issues pale besides this one. Elections are naturally won by criminals and liars; and this dire situation is just getting worse and worse.
Here’s an Atlantic article which takes yet another look at this sad trend.
Bloomberg is now at 15% in Texas and 11% in Cali on 538. 3 weeks to go. I think implications above are not unlikely: He’s built some decent city level alliances that could suprise pollsters with GOTV.
So the first national poll conducted completely after Iowa has three at 15% or higher nationally - Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg - with Warren just below. Biden and Warren of course are both falling off the cliff while meanwhile Bloomberg and Sanders are on the rise.
But of course the 15% threshold is not in a national race, but in individual state and even Congressional district level thresholds for delegates. We’ll be seeing state level Super Tuesday polling in the next few weeks …
Just on the basis of funding to be able to compete in those states it may quickly be functionally down to Sanders v Bloomberg with Buttigieg and maybe Warren continuing to nip at their heels but barely, but picking up some delegates here and there. Not sure if Biden even keeps enough funding to be a heel nipper, but who knows? His personality type is to try to get back up after being knocked down more than most I think.
Would not have guessed two weeks ago that I’d be hoping for Biden’s numbers to improve.
Haha. You and me both. Which is weird in itself.
But it has that ‘be careful what you wish for’ vibe to it.
Nate Silver’s model leaves only about a 3% chance for Bloomberg to get a majority of delegates. I suppose stranger things have happened, but it’s very hard to see what his path could be.
Calm down. Democrats are not in disarray.
I find his words reassuring. Criticizing other campaigns and candidates is part of the process; defending one’s preferred candidates and campaigns is, too. And so is the hand-fluttering about whether such criticism means that WE’RE ALL GONNA LOSE.
Klobmentum is coming!