Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

I like Warren just as much as I like Bernie in terms of policy. Right now I favor Bernie because I believe he’s a more effective politician and messenger, and thus more likely to win in the general election. But this is just my perception, and I think it’s entirely reasonable to favor Warren for a variety of reasons.

I voted for Warren last week in the Texas primary. If we had ranked voting I would’ve gone Harris, Castro, Warren… but it is as it is.

Biden now leading in Florida:

I had never heard anyone suggest ranked voting, until I heard a pundit do just that, last night.

It sure would have been nice this year – it would solve the hand-wringing dilemma of “Do I vote for the one I like the most? Or the one I think everyone else likes the most?” Why not both? :slight_smile:

Ranked-choice voting’s already being used in Maine elections. My aunt is a voter there and loves it: Ranked-choice voting: Maine proved the concept in 2018 midterms

Warren seems much more electable to me than Bernie. There are things that bother me about her, but most people bother me…

This was great - thanks!

You’re talking like it’s a horse race and seem to have no stake so yes, you’re confused.

Someone is going to stop Americans dying from not having health care and fix global warming without destroying jobs, after decades of generic democrats doing nothing.

Seeing reports that Bloomberg has not booked a single $ of TV time post Super Tuesday.

I wouldn’t make much of that. He can turn his advertising on at a moment’s notice. Once you get past Super Tuesday, there’s an important primary in Michigan and somewhat less important primaries in Washington and Missouri on March 10, then another big round on March 17.

Nice, Steyer just spent $$ helping trumpo get re-elected.:frowning:

What was Obama, chopped liver??

Obamacare wasn’t as complete as we would have liked, but it made a hell of a big dent in the uninsured rate, mostly via the Medicaid expansion. (Still can’t believe FL, TX, GA, etc. are still denying coverage to poor people just because.) And it was as much as could have gotten through Congress at the time.

I think Bloomberg got into the race for two reasons:

  1. in case Biden had a catastrophic collapse, he thought maybe, possibly he could be the replacement.

  2. he wanted to stop Bernie and wanted a brokered convention, and he could probably even accept Elizabeth Warren as the nominee

The thinking might be - I stress might because I’m not a mind reader - is that he blocks Bernie but Bernie’s voters might dig Warren, who comes might be acceptable enough as Bernie Light.

My own Super Tuesday math suggests that Bernie will win the delegate count, but that his victories might not be nearly as impressive as we’re thinking. In fact Biden might actually win more contests, but Bernie might win the big states. I’m thinking that Bernie will pull anywhere from 850-950 delegates on Tuesday but that Biden might get 700 or more. So while Bernie clearly scores, he might not be delivering the knockout punch.

Having said that, if Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Mike Bloomberg can bump Biden out of second place in some contests, then it could be bad - not just for Biden but for everyone. The problem the Dems have is that there are too many pretender candidates.

I think Bloomberg got into the race for two reasons:

  1. in case Biden had a catastrophic collapse, he thought maybe, possibly he could be the replacement.

  2. he wanted to stop Bernie and wanted a brokered convention, and he could probably even accept Elizabeth Warren as the nominee

The thinking might be - I stress might because I’m not a mind reader - is that he blocks Bernie but Bernie’s voters might dig Warren, who comes might be acceptable enough as Bernie Light.

My own Super Tuesday math suggests that Bernie will win the delegate count, but that his victories might not be nearly as impressive as we’re thinking. In fact Biden might actually win more contests, but Bernie might win the big states. I’m thinking that Bernie will pull anywhere from 850-950 delegates on Tuesday but that Biden might get 700 or more. So while Bernie clearly scores, he might not be delivering the knockout punch.

Having said that, if Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Mike Bloomberg can bump Biden out of second place in some contests, then it could be bad - not just for Biden but for everyone. The problem the Dems have is that there are too many pretender candidates.

You might even say it was a big f’ing deal.

Right now 538 has Biden at 32% for winning a delegate plurality. Bernie is 62% and Bloomberg is 5%. I think the key issue is going to be the 10% of so in the national polls that Biden lost after his weak early results. Can he get most of them back if he wins strongly in SC? Some of those voters went to Bernie but probably more went to Bloomberg. So a lot is going to depend on if and when Bloomberg drops out. Almost certainly not before Super Tuesday so he is going to play the role of a spoiler and ensuring that a bunch of non-Bernie votes are wasted because they fall below the 15% threshold. But will he at least drop out after Super Tuesday if Biden finishes a strong second?

It would be deeply ironic if Bloomberg’s entry leads to the nomination of a socialist and equally ironic if that in turn leads to Trump’s re-election. I suppose that when the global liberal order is collapsing during Trump’s second term we can pass our time contemplating the ironies of history…

Wow. :confused: " … horse race … have no stake"? I’m sorry my diction confused you but I was quite sincere. I’d make great personal sacrifice if it would somehow prevent the impending November catastrophe.

Are you by any chance one of those bitter Bernie Boyz we’ve been hearing so much about?

Let a rational thinker suggest that Bernie MIGHT not be the best chance to defeat Trump, and we hear absurd tirades (“Biden and Trump are in the pockets of the same billionaires”?). Get a grip, Bratz!

That’s not a conservative guess on Bernie’s delegate count on Super Tuesday. At all. In fact, Biden getting 700 and Bernie getting ~900 isn’t actually possible since there’s only about 1300 up for grabs that day.

Buttigieg keeps Iowa caucuses lead after partial recount
Buttigieg wins Iowa !! (for the third time) But the AP still refuses to call the results.

Bernie Sanders campaign challenges Iowa recount results
But Bernie still refuses to accept the results. He thinks his campaign should have been allowed recounts, but Buttigieg’s campaign should not. I hate this man more and more every day.

From your second link:
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So, Mayor Pete’s boy are counting the ballots and your problem is Bernie is mad about the thumb on the scale?? :rolleyes: