Joaquin heard me and will be challenging Cornyn in 2020. So Beto is no longer needed for this role.
Colorado’s Hickenlooper and Minnesota’s Klobuchar are candidates from purple states.
Both of these seem likeable, moderate, and relatively hard for the Trump-Hannity Lie Machine to attack. Unlike some of the other frontrunners, I think Klobuchar might have a good chance against the Rs.
If I had several extra $millions lying around I’d set up my own pro-Klobuchar SuperPAC! … Instead I’m left to natter futilely at you guys! 
They are running but not top tier. Buttigieg is a red stater too though.
I don’t really disagree with you either, and you could easily be right about Biden in particular (I do kinda suspect that he will leave the race before Iowa if he seems headed for disastrous defeat there and in New Hampshire, but it’s not like I have inside information here).
About Warren, here’s my thinking. A lot of people focus on the “ideological lane” thing. (I’m not really one of them, but work with me…) At the moment the two candidates who are in the “pure progressive” lane are Warren and Sanders. Warren’s initial goal, then, is to show she’s a better candidate than Sanders. In 2016 Sanders had no success whatsoever in the South (Oklahoma and West Virginia were the only two even marginally Southern states he won), and almost no success in the big states (he won the tenth- and thirteenth-most populous states, MI and WA, and nothing else in the top 15). A lot of that was due to Sanders’s significant problem with attracting non-whites to his campaign. Maybe that will change this time around, but maybe not…
Anyway, in this view, Warren can finish behind him in both Iowa and New Hampshire and still stay in the race in the expectation that she will finish ahead of him in South Carolina, and then ahead of him in most of the Super Tuesday states (which include a bunch of large states and a bunch of Southern states). If she does, she becomes the “lane leader.” So in this formulation it makes sense for her to stay in.
Now that assumes that Warren will be thinking in terms of ideological lanes, and that someone like Harris doesn’t successfully position herself in the same category, and that Warren’s finances don’t dry up if she does poorly in NH, and that Warren does have an easier time attracting black and Hispanic voters than Sanders. Who knows. But it’s why she might stay in as long as she doesn’t get buried in the first two states.
Arizona may be trending purple now, but when McCain ran for President, it was still pretty clearly red. Not as red as Utah or Wyoming, maybe, but still red enough.
Bernie supported Hillary Clinton - he’s not the reason she lost. Some of Bernie’s fan boys among his delegation, OTOH, were problematic, but there’s always acrimony during campaigns and it’s not unusual that it takes time to kiss and makeup (or agree to a truce) at the end of a long, hard election slog.
My concern with Bernie is that I worry his age is going to become an issue. It’s ironic to say that when his GOP opponent and his main democratic rival are both in their 70s, but my worry is that he’s going to have one or two public appearances where people say “Damn, he’s…old.”
I have the same concern with Biden, which is why I’m sorta leaning toward Harris or Booker at this point.
I want to correct a couple minor errors:There is some man with the worst flip flopping record of all time and a reputation for incredible insincerity, racism and fakeness in the race, but no one really seems to care that he’s there. But at least I’ve heard of Trump.
:D:p
Sanders would have had to drop out early if it wasnt for the fact he did well in caucus states.
Not until the very very end.
You were discussing the 2016 field, not the 2020 field.
Hey, aren’t you guys forgetting Bill de Blasio??
Beto’s first-day draw of $6.1 million is tops so far.
Some not-so-good news for Joe Biden today.
I found my way to the holding room for the speakers, where everyone was chatting, taking photos, and getting ready to speak to the hundreds of voters in the audience. Just before the speeches, we were ushered to the side of the stage where we were lined up by order of introduction. As I was taking deep breaths and preparing myself to make my case to the crowd, I felt two hands on my shoulders. I froze. “Why is the vice-president of the United States touching me?”
I felt him get closer to me from behind. He leaned further in and inhaled my hair. I was mortified. I thought to myself, “I didn’t wash my hair today and the vice-president of the United States is smelling it. And also, what in the actual fuck? Why is the vice-president of the United States smelling my hair?” He proceeded to plant a big slow kiss on the back of my head. My brain couldn’t process what was happening. I was embarrassed. I was shocked. I was confused. There is a Spanish saying, “tragame tierra,” it means, “earth, swallow me whole.” I couldn’t move and I couldn’t say anything. I wanted nothing more than to get Biden away from me. My name was called and I was never happier to get on stage in front of an audience.
By then, as a young Latina in politics, I had gotten used to feeling like an outsider in rooms dominated by white men. But I had never experienced anything so blatantly inappropriate and unnerving before. Biden was the second-most powerful man in the country and, arguably, one of the most powerful men in the world. He was there to promote me as the right person for the lieutenant governor job. Instead, he made me feel uneasy, gross, and confused. The vice-president of the United States of America had just touched me in an intimate way reserved for close friends, family, or romantic partners.
I’m finding myself drawn to Booker more and more, and I think it’s actually because he has national recognition, he can potentially reach a number of voter groups, but most importantly, he’s not reaching his peak a year ahead of the primaries. He’s either just really dull and not popular, or he’s wisely biding his time to make a move until later in the year.
I feel like Biden, Pete, Beto, Kamala and Bernie have the potential of being chewed up and spit out by Christmas.
Something to consider though: if he ends up marrying Rosario Dawson, there are pics and movies out there that make Melania’s photo shoots look tame enough for Highlights Magazine. Is America ready to know what it’s first lady’s vulva looks like?
Right now, I’m rooting hardest for Bill Weld.
Has Biden said anything?
My sense is that Biden has a shit-ton of #MeToo moments out there. Not to the extreme end like Trump or even Franken, but bad enough—and in bottomless quantities.
Agree and that is probably the reason he has not announced a run yet. The media line has been that being the former Vice President means he can afford to bide his time as name recognition is his advantage. But I believe he is well aware that his long career in the public eye opens up scrutiny in more than one way, and hit jobs coming out now will cause him to sit out. Better now when he is still on the sidelines than dirt dropping as soon as he starts campaigning. If he runs his reputation could get tarnished beyond return.
Biden’s image, like Hillary’s, was rehabilitated because of his time within the Obama political orbit. People liked Biden better when he was Obama’s wing man. Do people like Biden better than Trump? Yeah, but that’s probably true of everyone of the Dem candidates. He has to get through the primaries first, and I honestly doubt he can win the nomination. Biden will soon realize he’s in a new political environment, and he won’t like it. I think he wants to beat Trump, but I don’t think he wants to compete against the rest of the Democrats - I think he’s struggling with that psychologically. But make no mistake: he absolutely will have to fight it out, and the rest of the field is warming up in the locker room and more than eager to step in the ring with him.
I could be way wrong on this - it’s hard to predict political futures these days. But my bets are on Booker, Harris, or Beto. There will be one or two others who outperform expectations (Yang, Buttigiege?), and perhaps Biden and a few others will under-perform or just never get off the ground.
We’ve all been breathlessly anticipating the announcement, but here it is: Wayne Messam, the mayor of Miramar, FL, is in it to win it.