Yes, and so do a number of the others, or for Governor. Plus, they need to switch races now, before their failures at the Presidential level stick to them at the state level, despite their established popularity in their home states.
The early evidence appear to suggest that it was a devastating performance with long-term consequences. Other candidates might be able to move on past a subpar performance, but in Biden’s case, it confirmed everyone’s worst fears: he’s losing whatever oomph and edge he appeared to have.
RTF and don’t always agree, but I think he’s absolutely correct in pointing out that Joe’s electability edge is gone. Biden’s electability was most likely the result of Obama-era nostalgia and having pundits wondering aloud every day since November 8, 2016 whether Biden could have beaten Trump. Now we’re seeing the reality: Biden the candidate, Biden the individual now has to compete with other candidates, and people are beginning to recall that he’s competed in this horse race twice before and stumbled out of the gate both times. So they’re understandably questioning just how electable he is right now. Biden still has a lead in the polls, but that’s only because he had built a massive lead before the debates.
I won’t write Biden off just yet - he’s still the front runner, but he’s very wobbly. He’ll need to mount a vigorous response on the campaign trail and in the next debate.
“To be fair” - hahahaha, you’re such a kidder. What do favorability numbers across the population as a whole have to do with their prospects in the race for the nomination?
If you want to use those numbers to suggest it would be bad for this or that candidate to be nominated, I think that’s bullshit too, but at least there’s an argument that it’s not. But using the numbers like you do here is unquestionably bullshit.
Let’s say that God Himself tells us that Biden has a 60% chance of beating Trump, and each of the others has a 59% chance of beating Trump. Then if we poll the people who listened to God and understood him, asking them “who has the best chance to beat Trump?”, the results should be Biden 100%, Sanders, Warren, and Harris 0%.
Basically this asks the electability question in a way that magnifies the perceived advantage of whoever’s ahead.
The HuffPost/YouGov poll showed that 57% of Dem and Dem-leaning respondents thought Biden could beat Trump, and the figures for Warren, Harris, and Sanders were 51, 49, and 46%. I’d say that gives a result that is consistent with the result you cite, but without the artificial inflator effect.
Sheesh, everyone’s willing to work with Republicans. Biden’s difference is that he starts off by putting all his eggs in that basket. :rolleyes:
Tru dat. Now let’s see how well he does at this thing he doesn’t seem to have tried yet.
Beto O’Rourke is getting into Eric Swalwell and John Delaney territory. His is a zombie campaign at this point.
He needs to be running against Cornyn for Senate next year.
He couldn’t beat Cruz, why would he be able to beat Cornyn? I think Castro would have a better chance. Beto had his 15 minutes of fame, to me he appears just to be an empty suit.
He should have started out running against Cornyn. I’m not sure he’d be any good now; he’s totally ruined his brand, as they say.
I’d rather see Joaquin Castro, Julian Castro’s twin brother, run against Cornyn.
I said that because it’s his only chance for future relevance, not because he’d be the Dems’ best candidate against Cornyn. I do agree that either Castro brother would have a better chance.
Harris has now come out for busing though not explicitly forced busing. She will still get hit by a blizzard of attack ads if she becomes the nominee and will be constantly on the defensive explaining her views. Ironically it will be the mirror of image of Biden in the primary. If you are a pundit or activist who is pro-busing, Biden saying he was for voluntary busing but not forced busing doesn’t really cut it. If you are a voter who is anti-busing, the reverse is equally true. Don’t underestimate this issue because it seems from another era. There will be plenty of middle-aged people who remember bad busing experiences from their childhood. Once someone explains to Trump what busing is, he will start demagoguing it as only he can. While I don’t think this is fatal for a potential Harris general election campaign, it will be serious liability as it will be for the Democratic party as a whole. There were very good electoral reasons why politicians like Biden fought so hard against forced busing in the 70s and Democrats may have to learn that lesson again in 2020
Busing is not an issue today, but it certainly was in the 70’s - and that’s what Harris was trying to do; show that Biden is a product of the past somehow trying to hang on beyond his time, not someone who should be seen as an energetic forward-thinking leader for the next generation. Swalwell took that approach too, quoting Biden’s pass-the-torch remark from decades ago.
Busing was not an issue last week but Harris has definitely made it one and it will remain so if she becomes the nominee.
Given the debate interaction in which she pilloried Biden for being for voluntary but not forced busing she is stuck with either arguing for forced or that Biden had the correct position all along after all.
She definitely punctured Biden’s balloon some but she did it in a way that is going to doom her over time.
One way she could finesse that issue is saying that she is not only for voluntary busing but unlike Biden is willing to put serious federal money behind it while still remaining against forced busing. I don’t think she is doomed but it will put her on the defensive in the general and she will have to work hard to defuse it.
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I really doubt this will last til the general, I doubt anyone will be talking about busing a month from now. It’s too much of a long dead issue to keep anyone interested even if her opponents try to keep it alive.
Agreed. This may have been a calculated move on her part to get the electorate chattering about busing and, while the pundits are obsessing over it, she’s coming up with a new strategy. Everybody still talking about busing are going to be caught off guard.
I could be wrong, but we’ll see.
New Iowa poll (USA Today/Suffolk):
Biden 24%
Harris 16%
Warren 13%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 6%
ETA: MOE 4.4%
This issue may well die down in the primaries but if Harris becomes the nominee I would bet the Republicans resurrect it big time in the general. It’s a near perfect issue to target suburban white mothers who are a crucial swing demographic.
The same surburban white moms who consistently voted Republican for over 30 years? Why are they considered “swing voters” this time?
Also, 2016: Exit Polls 2016
I notice the first article is dated February 2018 - before Orange County went blue.