Also:
“The race is similarly close for white Democratic voters, with Biden at 21 percent, and both Harris and Warren at 20 percent. Harris also essentially catches Biden among black Democratic voters, a historically strong voting bloc for Biden, with Biden at 31 percent and Harris at 27 percent.”
If y’all recall, HRC had an over 50% advantage in the African-American vote in the 2016 primaries. Biden’s reputation in this sector is completely overblown.
way too early to declare Biden is in big trouble. McCain was declared dead early in 2008 and he recovered to get the nomination.
So, what do they say about Biden, Bernie, and Harris?
Indivisible, one of the best vehicles of the “Resistor Mom” vote which sprung up in late 2016, early 2017 says this in an internal poll:
Candidate: % of members who are still considering voting for this person (in the D primaries, of course), % decided against voting for this person:
Warren: 84,6
Harris: 83, 7
Buttigieg: 61, 15
Castro: 47, 18
Booker: 44, 21
Biden: 35, 42
Bernie: 32, 45
Beto: 11, 56
I don’t think this slice of the electorate is as critical to Dems chances as y’all do, but if I’m wrong (very likely!) here’s yet another group in which Biden is nowhere near as strong as we’ve been hearing.
Interesting numbers but a Democratic activist group is hardly representative of the general election suburban female electorate.
I’m not sure why you speak with such confidence about how middle aged suburban moms feel. Why are they going to give a crap about this anymore than any other demographic?
Mandatory busing finished dying in the 90s because no demographic, including Black voters, thought it was a good idea.
Suburban parents in general like their kids’ schools. The school was often a major factor in choosing where to live. They serve on the local PTOs and socialize with other local parents. They go to their kids’ games, their shows and presentations, and support their kids’ clubs. Their kids socialize with other kids from school after school.
You really think that they will take well to being told that a candidate wants to make their kids leave their current social groups and friendships, against their wishes, and be bused 45 minutes or so farther away, to a school very much not of their choice?
Now mind you urban parents, even in very underperforming schools, will often react the same way. Parents all over often like to be involved in their children’s neighborhood schools, to bond with other parents regarding school issues, and to participate in activities. Having the choice to send your kid somewhere else, a magnet school for example, might be something different, but that is a choice.
Parents will in general care first about their own kids best interests as they perceive them.
We’re in the quarterly reporting window for FEC fundraising reports. The quarter ended June 30th and reports are due by July 15th.
Buttigieg was the first to report. I assume that’s an intentional effort to get good news out in order to create positive buzz about electability. He pulled in 24.8 million in the three months from 294k contributors. The contributors meets the third debate inclusion criteria assuming it’s distributed properly among the states.
As a point of comparison, Sanders campaign manager gave an insight into what they will report during a teleconference - 18 million from “nearly 1 million individual contributions.” They also transferred 6 million from previous FEC accounts. Presumably, that’s any last little bits of his 2016 Presidential campaign but mostly his bigger Senate reelection campaign funds.
You are talking about history. None of this shit is on anyone’s minds right now. Current events are laden with much more salient issues.
If these mothers you’re talking about aren’t already turned off by the GOP because of its position on abortion, healthcare access, tax reform, gun control, and the pussy grabbing misogynist in the office, then they are lost causes anyway.
No, but if someone was going to seriously propose mandatory busing, which I’m still unsure is a Harris policy plank, there are ways to do it that are less offensive. Like saying 45 minute commutes would not be acceptable. The integration program in Harris’ old school district is much more sophisticated nowadays:
The Atlantic:There’s a Generational Shift in the Debate Over Busing
Maybe that’s not the debate to have in this election but if she gets roped into owning this much longer, there’s ways to defend it and many ways to hint it’s not top of the priority list.
As to poll numbers.
I think everyone remembers following polls slavishly last cycle and all the Dopers who reacted to every bump following a particular positive or negative news cycle as if it was the end for one or the other candidate and would linearly proceed from there. Most bounces were transient, peaking a week or so after the news bit. Dem convention ended 7/28, peak bounce was 8/8 to 8/18 … so on.
I reserve judgement about long term impacts on national polling in the one to two weeks immediately following a news cycle. That said polls are mixed. Morning Consult is still Biden +14, HarrisX still +14 too.
OTOH I am more interested in Iowa’s numbers as they have been following more closely longer. That Suffolk poll has Harris jumping up, but Biden still leads there by 8 points with 24, during a horrific news for him news cycle. The biggest news there is the complete plummet of Sanders. Biden had 24 leading the second place person by 8 on the Selzer poll last month. He seems fairly steady there. It’s just that now Harris is in Sanders’ second place.
Maybe Iowa just hasn’t caught up to the rest of the country on this? Could be. Or could be that the rest of the country responds to news cycles with greater volatility. We’ll see. I do recall some here “wondering” if and others declaring that Biden was done before even announcing after a bad news cycle. So i take such pronouncements for what they are worth.
If she becomes the candidate I pray she can pivot but she has really painted herself in.
None of this shit was on anyone’s minds but it is now. She has made busing her own origin story, without which she, the child of research physician and a Stanford professor, who went to school in Canada from 12 through High School, would never had achieved academically. She has made objecting to mandatory busing something that minimally demands an apology and that is personally hurtful to her. She has stated clearly that its being mandatory is needed and implied strongly that having been against that was code for minimally pandering to racism. How do you back down from that? What you didn’t mean what you clearly said when you said how much his being against its being mandatory was so personally hurtful to you?
you with the face there are moms turned off by Trump to various degrees. That doesn’t mean they cannot be turned off more by positions that they feel directly threaten their own kids’ futures.
The Supremes ruled years ago that the feds cannot mandate busing across city boundaries. So it’s a moot point for anyone living in an affluent suburb.
Yes, and the same happened with John Kerry four years earlier. I think it’s different this time. I see zero evidence that Biden has the vigor and tenacity to mount a resurgence. And there are constant leaks from his campaign staff that “the old guy won’t listen to us”, as Axelrod and Murphy put it. That’s not only a bad sign about Biden himself, but also about his campaign. As Axelrod pointed out, staffers in Obama’s inner circle never pulled shit like that.
Exactly this. If these issues are emphasized, the independents and working class people needed for victory will be scared away from the Democrats. There are ways to sell these ideas but the time for that is after the election.
I don’t care if candidates cry foul, the Democrats need to end this debate party bullshit right quick. They need to rig the system so that only a handful qualify after next month. Ideally, they whittle the field down to 5-8 candidates, of which maybe 2 or 3 have a legit shot. Right now, there’s too many gray haired white men, too many mannequin candidates, too many identity candidates, and too many cartoon candidates.
Memo to Dems: narrow - the fuck - down.
I’ve said it elsewhere and I will repeat it here:
Biden
Sanders
Harris
Warren
Buttigieg
Booker
Castro
Maybe Inslee and Klobuchar if keeping the field larger is desired.
Those are the only ones needed on the stage going forward. I don’t see any of the others having a realistic chance.
It’s possible to force the district but not the individual families.
District has to allow children to go to any school in the district, and to provide transportation. Parents can choose which school to send their kids to.
That’s exactly what they’re doing, with much higher poll standings and numbers of donors required for the next round.
AFAIK, the next debate at the end of July uses the same thresholds. The thresholds increase for the third debates, which are in the middle of September. That’s not quick whittling.
Thanks. Only 14 are sure to be there, which is still frustratingly many (we wanna know now, dammit!) but it’s still early.
If you’re not beating Marianne Williamson, it’s time to reconsider your life choices, friend.
Biden’s support among Democrats has dropped from 30 percent down to 22 percent. In addition, his support among black voters has fallen sharply.