Meanwhile good news for Biden and bad news for Harris in today’s A rated Fox poll.
One of the main goals for Harris during the debate and immediately after has been to grab some support from Biden among Black voters, with an eye specifically on South Carolina. After Iowa and NH there is Nevada, which she would hope to do well in, and then South Carolina on 2/29, before Super Tuesday on 3/3.
Fox’s result, showing her in third with 12%, while Biden at 35 holds a +21 point lead over Sanders in second at 14%, is not the narrowing that she needs.
Not sure how to take C+ rated Change research’s numbers which OTOH show a dramatically different result, and big change from their past numbers. (Biden 27; Harris 21) That is more what she’d be hoping to see.
Meanwhile Warren is in second in today’s NBC/WSJ national poll, 26 to 19. She actually has a record going back a ways that should be good cred on racial justice issues, but it seems that gaining primary support from Black voters is going to be tough for her.
I’ll put my power rankings on my other thread (that nobody other than me reads, lol), but right now, I’ve got Biden back on top and starting to pull away from Harris. Despite trailing a little in the polls, I’ve still got Harris as my number 2 based on her Google search buzz, which is still strong. Warren is coming on strong; Bernie is still stagnating and starting to pay a price for it. Buttigieg a distant fifth, and the rest of the field is daydreaming.
For that matter, how about a Harris-Biden ticket. Harris gets to the Benefit of Biden’s experience (like Obama), Biden gets a position he’s entirely suited for, where age doesn’t really matter (like Alben Barkley), and a few speaking gaffes might be embarrassing to the President but certainly not fatal (like Dan Quayle or for that matter, Joe Biden.)
And, he can step away/get pushed off the ticket in four years.
I’d just ignore Change Research. Given the quality (or rather lack of it) of other pollsters 538’s rated in the C range, I’ve come to regard their C as being more like an F, and C+ as maybe a D.
My main thoughts about the Fox SC poll are, first, it’s SC. Nobody gets there until after IA, NH, and NV. So who’s ahead there matters less than what, if anything, it tells us about the larger electorate. Second, what it mainly tells us about the larger electorate is the black vote. What this tells us is that (a) this confirms that Biden’s no longer drawing 50% support from blacks, but is now in the mid-30s, but (b) so far, nobody’s really claimed the support he’s lost.
So not really great news for Biden, but also not really good news for anyone else either.
The NBC poll is the third that’s been in the field in either the July 6-8 or July 7-9 period, the other two being Emerson and YouGov. Worth looking at them together:
Biden: 30-22-26
Warren 15-17-19
Harris 15-14-13
Sanders 15-11-13
Pete 5-5-7
Everyone else: scraping bottom
First, nobody should read a trend in there. The dates are the same for the last two, and barely different for Emerson. So don’t read an increase in Warren’s support or a decline in Harris’ over time into the numbers. These are all snapshots taken at essentially the same time.
Biden’s still ahead, but he’s lost his announcement bounce, and then some. He’s still got time to arrest/reverse his decline, but he’s actually got to DO something that makes it happen.
Warren, Harris, and Sanders are more or less tied for second, but:
Warren’s gradual climb hasn’t stopped. Hard to know whether her numbers are just about topped out, or whether she’ll keep going.
Harris’ jump into the low to mid teens is a done deal. Again, hard to know whether she builds on that, or just stays there awhile.
I’m convinced that Bernie has exactly zero chance to actually win the nomination, but it’s going to take some time for the rest of his supporters to gradually switch loyalties, and there’s likely some hard core of them that won’t, come hell or high water. But I don’t see anything but a slow decline in his numbers.
Buttigieg? Still there and not down with the 1%ers, but it’s not a Top 5 anymore, it’s a Top 4. Glad he ran, but 2028 might be his year. Not 2020.
Not finding too much to argue with in your post except this.
Limiting to decent SC polls he’s run 36 45 and 37 with up 23 27 and 21 in SC before this. Now 35 up 21. That’s on low end of the range but nothing that suggests a drop of support among Black voters from 50 to mid 30s. If any drop it is very small. And again, given the news cycle, surprisingly small. From the Harris POV devastingly small.
As the archetypal soft Biden supporter I am warming more and more to Warren. I can even accept that she has no plan for how to get her plans passed.
I think the big ideas shake it up plans may actually appeal more to those Obama-Trump voters than Biden will. And I think Trump will keep the Romney-Clinton ones in the D column.
I want to see two things though. First she HAS to get some more support among Black voters. Second she has to somehow prove that she can fight Trump. Her play attempting to neutralize the Pocahontas crap was pathetic and she needs to show that she can bring it to him hard.
The possibility of Warren clinching the nomination fills me with dread because I have absolutely zero confidence in her ability to defeat Trump. I know she’s very smart, I know she’s a very capable Senator, and I know that she has the best intentions, but I do not think she has the charisma that will be necessary to get this done. I would rank the major candidates, charisma wise, from best to worst:
You are normally thoughtful and pragmatic. I know you have read my posts, complete with citations, showing that she is the worst performing incumbent in all of the House and Senate (with the second worst being a Republican congressman under indictment whom the GOP unsuccessfully tried to remove from the ballot). How can you even consider her? Outside of educated white women, she has no constituency.
Clearly that is untrue. She has (yougov) roughly the same favorability among men as among women; and higher favorables among Black voters than white ones. In the same poll she leads as the one most likely “considered”, at 49%, a hair over Biden. (And in a cluster with Sanders and Harris as considered by Black voters; above them with Hispanic voters.) Highest on that considered list among independents. First choice is actually insignificantly more male than female. Fewer would be disappointed if she was the nominee than with Sanders, Biden, or Harris.
On the stump she connects with working class origins and values in a way that feels authentic. She will come off as at least giving a shit about their problems.
Considering all the data YWTF’s thesis has some merit:Obama-Trump voters may find Biden’s moderate and establishment style unappealing and find someone who hopes to change things more, shake things up more, with a message more honed in on economic populism, more appealing. There is at least a good argument that the traditional middle is the most unappealing place for these voters.
Once again I see those voters as a key bloc. She might a few Clinton-Romney ones in the process but I think few. And she manages to be acceptable to many of the establishment (as she understands and works within the system) while also being someone who would appeal to many women and educated voters more than HRC did. The progressive wing would also come out for her and her big ideas … even though they’ll never pass.
Can she become a first choice among more Black voters? Favorability is not votes. And do perhaps a smidge better there with turn out than HRC did?
And can she do better fighting against Trump than she did with the whole Pocahantas thing? Because that sucked.
In terms of Senate coat tails, well likely could help with Maine anyway. Not sure about NC let alone the others.
Above all else this is a pragmatic thought process.
I am not swung over yet, but she has become my solid second. If Biden’s next performance is disappointing too and he demonstrates that it wasn’t just one bad debate, and he drops down as a result … then she is my best pick now over Harris, who I think has kneecapped herself for the general. Sanders? No. And others even less.
I am reluctantly with you on all of this. I do have serious concerns the Trump/GOP hate machine will demonize her even more thoroughly than they did HRC but if/when Biden falls apart I suspect she will be the best choice left. This does nothing to improve my confidence about a D win.
Regardless of how we might feel about her, it’s clear that Warren has a path forward. She is campaigning well. It’s clear that unlike Sanders, she has figured out how to expand beyond just her core group of supporters. She is one of the few candidates who has actually seen noticeable positive movement in the polls.
That poll above was only of 1500 people. I would not expect that to be an accurate representation of anything.
Warren’s speaking style is awful. She has this desperate, beseeching tone all the time, like she’s pleading for dear life - like a mom at a PTA meeting talking about the dangers of Marilyn Manson. I mean that’s literally the mental image I get every time I hear her talking about anything. This is not a style that is going to win over enough voters to beat Trump. We are fucked if she is the nominee.