Helicopter carrying Iranian President and Foreign Minister has crashed -upd, all aboard died [2024-05-19]

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
21

I know nothing about Iranian politics. So I need my ignorance fought:

1.Who has the actual power in Iran?–the president, or the ayatollahs?

  1. Of the possible replacements for the (apparently) dead Pres and Foreign Minister…are there any candidates who will actually change Iranian policies, or are the potential replacements all yes-men and fanatic devotees of the same policies? (Like in so many dictatorships-say, Putin–whoever replaces him will be just as bad for the west)

  2. In short, does it really matter to us in the west who died in that helicopter?( Obviously it’s too early to tell after just a few hours–but it’s fun to guess, right? :slight_smile: )

22

I think we can all safely and responsibly say that its confirmed. Israel took out the helicopter. (my post is my cite, etc.)

23

You’re on to the key point, here. No, this doesn’t really matter for Iran’s policy, because the president is beholden to the Ayatollah and cannot set policy that the Supreme Leader disapproves of.

Anyone who does not want to be a yes man cannot run for office, because the Ayatollah has to approve of candidates.

(I don’t have an English source, but the Israeli media is reporting that intelligence officials believe the Iranian president is dead, and that it will have no impact on Iranian policy).

Where it COULD matter is domestically. Iran is under immense pressure right now, and it could very well be a powder keg in search of a match. Only time will tell.

24

From the CNN link I posted just above:

Raisi became president in a historically uncompetitive election in 2021. Previously the country’s chief justice, he has overseen a period of intensified repression of dissent, according to human rights monitors.

So, maybe some reform minded types in Iran could see this as an opportunity but given how repressive Iran is I wouldn’t hold out much hope for that.

25

It seems Iran has requested help from the EU to have them use one of their satellites to aid in the search.

I also read it is now night time in Iran (around 10p) and it is getting cold in the mountains making it harder for rescuers to find the site and can certainly mean real problems for anyone who survived the crash but are now exposed to the cold.

ETA:

Iranian officials have spoken to two people on the same helicopter as President Ebrahim Raisi since it crashed Sunday, Iranian Vice President for Executive Affairs Mohsen Mansouri told the country’s semi-official FARS news agency.

Officials say they made contact “several times” with a passenger and member of the flight crew shortly after the crash, which indicates the incident was “not severe,” Mansouri said. - SOURCE

I would not want to be that pilot after this.

26

The official story doesn’t make sense, if other passengers survived the crash and in contact with officials how are they still having trouble finding the guy

27

Nvm just saw the prior post

28

Got anything at all to back your alternate theory?

29

Nah I don’t, it’s probably not true. I’m just speculating, I’m not convinced of it myself tbh. I don’t trust the word of many officials/politicians, especially during times of conflict and prefer to think outside of what’s said

30

I really can’t see Iranian officials aiding Israel in a coverup.
Can you?

31

No, but if they are unprepared to retaliate, they will cover it up otherwise it makes them look very weak in the world stage with no strong reaction.

They definitely put some emphasis on downplaying the severity of Israel bombing their soil, as if it was nothing, making me think theyre trying not to escalate and at the same time not look weak

32

Or it was an accident.

33

I would be VERY impressed if Israel managed to get to and kill the Iranian president.

I would also think they are idiots who don’t understand the power, nor intelligence, nor military, nor political structure of the Iranian state. It would be probably be easier and less error prone to try to kill the high ranking vacationing Hamas leaders. It is very unlikely. Very.

34

It probably is an accident, but youre asking if there could be a motivation to cover it up if it wasn’t and it’s there

35

Or the Iranians had to fly in fog because that’s the only time the Jewish Space Lasers can’t target them, and that’s how the helicopter crashed :roll_eyes:

36

But seriously how are they in contact with the survivors and claiming the crash is “relatively minor”, yet not found him by now. Fog doesn’t affect gps signals, the heli should have a gps coord and even if it’s not working you have the smart phones from the survivors who are in contact with officials. Unless the survivors abandoned him and just forgot where they crashed? I’m not understanding this mess.

Edit: I think they recently managed to find the heli. But 10 hours?

37

It is a bit too soon for anyone to “understand this mess”, so perhaps filling in blank spots with “Jewish Conspiracy” isn’t called for just yet.

38

The Iranians have the crash site narrowed down to a two square kilometer area. In clear weather it would be easy and fast to find them. But, it is night and foggy and the mountainous terrain makes getting there difficult and dangerous.

Iranian authorities have identified a 2-kilometer radius for the crash site and believe the accident was “not severe” after speaking with two people who were traveling on the downed helicopter, Iranian Vice President for Executive Affairs Mohsen Mansouri told Iranian semi-official FARS news. - SOURCE

39

2km area is too big for even a weak gps signal.

40

I assume they used radio direction finding from the radio signal and are not getting a GPS coordinate from the site.