Moderating:
Hey, I’ve just tagged this as a breaking news thread, because it basically is. Henceforth, please treat it as one.
I can think of a few different reasons why the existing regime wants to keep people on their toes, keep ‘em guessing. They are not popular. The overall facts presented don’t portend well at all for the flight, but stranger things have happened. We shall see.
I remember (You kids get off my lawn!) when we had to wait for the 5 o’clock news to get updates on anything. Once a day, more or less.
Today? Everybody is apoplectic, pissed off there isn’t live streaming video from the crash site within 15 minutes.
CNN update: “Iranian officials say dense fog made the search difficult in the remote, mountainous East Azerbaijan Province. It is now after 11 p.m. local time, and extreme cold is further complicating rescue efforts.”
Dense, freezing fog-not good.
There is a drone being used now, I think deployed from Turkey. The large area search pattern indicates to some, it appears they aren’t too sure where the helicopter went down, another bad sign.
It will be interesting to hear what happened. Did they have to go inadvertent IMC? In other words, flight instruments only.
They were in a flight of 3, and it’s my understanding the other 2 made it to their destination. If that is true, then there is a lot they aren’t telling us about. Which would be in keeping with that type of government, I suppose.
Having contact with survivors but not being able to find them sounds weird to me, too. I’m not saying that that’s proof of a conspiracy, because with a conspiracy, it still sounds weird. I mean, even if they narrowed down the position by using the radio signal from the phones, they should be able to narrow it down even further that way, once they get close.
I suppose we’ll probably learn soon, especially since they’re pulling in international cooperation (so even if the Iranians don’t want to say anything for whatever reason, we’ll still find out from the Turks and whoever else is helping them).
Latest CNN update is pretty interesting: “Russia plans to send special aircraft and 50 professional mountain rescuers to the site in northern Iran where a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed Sunday, according to the Iranian state news agency IRNA.
Two special Russian helicopters will be sent to the crash site from Armenia, according to IRNA, which reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the move.”
I think this “contact with survivors” will turn out to be some sort of crossed signals (some reports indicated that a SAR helicopter also crashed) or, maybe some kind of messaging to keep internal (or external) elements on their toes. The regime is not popular with Iranians and anyone contemplating a coup or anything like that has to be sure. The Iranian regime for their part is shoring up troops around government buildings and putting troops on high alert, but these things take time. At one point very early on the official news reports were they were just minutes away from the crash site.
Now 12+ hours later they are searching 400 square mile area in a racetrack pattern or whatever. Watch what they do, not what they say, applies here especially.
nevermind
Putting together a coup takes time, too. Though I suppose that no matter how much it looks like a genuine accident, the Iranian authorities need to be sure, too.
It’s “Instrument meteorological conditions”.
In the “life imitates art” category, this exact same situation (although with US characters on the helicopter) was a plotline in the last season of Homeland. Spoiler for what the cause was:
Various characters frantically try to uncover a conspiracy only to find out there isn’t one - high altitude and general wear and tear brought the helicopter down.
What I mean by that - they would need to know right away - are these guys dead, or not? It would never do to start all that coup stuff, and then 24 hours later … Surprise! They ain’t dead. So to me, although I have absolutely no experience in this kind or thing, I’d want to keep potential rivals guessing for a little bit, as long as possible even. See who pops oit of the woodwork, and deal with them, so to speak.
Rescuers have now reached the crash site, but no further details yet.
From CNN: “No survivors were found at the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister, Iranian state news agency IRINN and semi-official news agency Mehr News reported.”
I should clarify that rescue teams are within sight of the wreckage, but not actually there as it’s across a steep valley. Both CNN and AP are reporting that they see no signs of life, but both are getting reports from Iranian state media.
They are barely seeing signs of helicopter: “Drone footage of the wreckage taken by the Red Crescent and carried on state media FARS News Agency showed the crash site on a steep, wooded hillside, with little remaining of the helicopter beyond a blue and white tail.”
Sounds like they found the crash, and it doesn’t look like there are any survivors.
That doesn’t sound like a survivable crash. You never know though (but I would not bet on it if this is the case).
My wife — Tehran born, with deep family connections in Iran, and a reason to pay attention to Iranian politics — says yes. From the outside it looks like the ayatollahs are absolutely in charge, and it’s easy to assume the president will be easily replaced by slotting in the next interchangeable lap dog. The Powers That Be have an interest in cultivating and projecting that image, because it connotes the unquestioned centrality of authority and the pointlessness of resistance.
But my wife says that perception is simplistic and naive, and doesn’t reflect the reality of regime politics. There are many competing interests jockeying for position underneath that structure, and the people at the top maintain their position by balancing those interests against one another (compare how Putin has split up military power into competing agencies so none of them can itself marshal strength against him). President Raisolsadati (familiarly Raisi) wasn’t just a puppet of the ayatollahs, he was himself an ayatollah (the history here is complex and nuanced, but at the time he took the office of President, his clerical credentials were confirmed), and not only that, he was specifically being groomed as the successor to Khamenei (the current Supreme Leader). The line of authority was established and confirmed, and continuity into the next generation of leadership was going to be enforced.
Raisi’s death creates a significant and totally unexpected power vacuum — not in the sense that there’s an opportunity for a reformer to rise, but in the sense that the various competing factions will now jostle against each other, vying to be named as inheritors of the mantle. My wife says there is no clear alternative behind Raisi, which tends to create instability as a cohort of contenders starts coming out of the woodwork to push and pull and scheme and maneuver. She says Iranian politics are suddenly going to turn into the real-world equivalent of the Survivor show, and there’s a possibility those struggles will be significant enough that they become visible on the outside, especially because Iran is already under a tremendous amount of pressure, both externally and internally.
So, yeah, this definitely matters, and my wife says anyone who dismisses the event and simplifies Iranian politics doesn’t know what they’re talking about. The next six months in Iran are going to be very, very interesting.
Thanks for this.
Sometimes I wish we could upvote a post here.