I was going to say that assuming Raisi was dead was perhaps premature, but that was because I had not seen the news in the past few hours. So for those getting their news from this thread, Raisi’s death was confirmed, and it doesn’t seem there were any survivors. It’s not clear who rescuers thought they were talking to over mobile phones or where that story came from.
Excellent analysis, and thank you for that post putting the situation in context. Raisi was a hardliner responsible for brutal crackdowns over the years, and was on very good terms with the Ayatollah. It seems that at one point he was indeed being groomed to be the Ayatollah’s successor, but according to Christiane Amanpour, Raisi’s extreme unpopularity due partly to the brutality of the crackdowns and partly to the poor economy was making this increasingly unlikely. Nevertheless, his death is significant for all the reasons you mention and will have major repercussions.
FWIW it seems some are celebrating president Raisi’s death in Iran. Not sure how widespread it is though (doesn’t seem to be):
Also, this article has a video which includes some footage of the wreck. I am no expert but it sure looks like a crash no one survives. The video also shows people mourning/praying for Raisi which is the opposite of the story just above. So…I dunno.
Right, and I was taking that a couple of steps further. You can’t go “Oh, the President’s dead, let’s go start a coup”. It wouldn’t work unless you had already planned and prepositioned things. And conspiracies have a short shelf life, so you also can’t plan a conspiracy “just in case something happens, we’ll know it when we see it”. A coup attempt built around this crash only makes sense if the crash was part of the conspiracy. Which it probably wasn’t. But the authorities couldn’t completely rule out the possibility of conspiracy, so they had to act as on the presumption that it was, including misinformation to keep the conspirators (who may or may not exist) guessing.
“Oh, my eyes have crossed!” But yes, I agree. A coup has to strike while the emotions are running high. You can’t just send a text and have people go “It’s coup’ o 'clock, time to go storm the castle!”
The fog seen in the videos is insane. I cannot fathom why a pilot would dare fly in those conditions.
Well, I actually can … I wonder if this might not be similar to the crash in 2010 that wiped out a bunch of highly placed members of the Polish government and military (including the president of Poland)… in that case it seems that the pilot was directly ordered by the president to attempt a landing in absolutely terrible fog because “they had to absolutely make it there in time”…
I wonder if the Iranian President pressured the pilot to go ahead with the flight because “they had to be back no matter what because reasons”. And then… the rather imaginable happens.
It depends on what they call “survivor” in that context. If the preceding post is correct:
it would not be outrageous to call the other two helicopters “survivors” (at least for a while until they land and the misunderstanding is cleared up but not corrected in a public statement because: what for?) and having contact with them and not finding the third helicopter is completely natural. I am not saying this was so, just pointing out that from Farsi to Reuters a lot gets lost (and added!) in translation.
In that case, wouldn’t a prudent pilot try to find a place to land and wait the fog out, or try to fly over it? Especially with a helicopter; it is somewhat easier to find a place to land a helicopter than to land a plane.
Not if you find yourself in the soup and can’t see where to. Once you start “scud running” the walls can close in really fast and the terrain may be rising faster than you are climbing.
The prudent pilot sees things start to deteriorate and does the “F— this” maneuver and turns back home or to a known-safe alternate. The very prudent pilot waits the bad weather out safely sitting back at departure base.
I was VERY glad when we outsourced our corporate jet operations. When we owned the plane and the pilots were employees (direct reports to the CEO) they weee under all kinds of pressure to fly when the weather was not good.
When they became employees of a charter airline they suddenly became a lot more cautious.
Which is what I said in the beginning - I would have expected the pilot to say “we go back” or (if the fog was bad enough in the airport of departure) refuse to take off.
That is what made me wonder whether there was pressure on the part of the Iranian president to get going. Something similar to what happened in the Smolensk crash.
(Edited to add: What Mighty_Mouse said right above)
Too soon to know, but – yes. There is an aviation VIP syndrome where the danger of annoying the supremo passenger outweighs fear of crashing.
I do not know if this is proven, but VIP pressure, to continue helicopter operation, allegedly contributed to the death of U.S. basketball star Kobe Bryant. In this latest case, the senior passenger, Ebrahim Raisi, was called by many the Butcher of Teheran, so the desire to avoid crossing him could have been substantial.
one of the problems with liking/upvotes is it makes sites like these even more addictive. (Although people who make ad revenue from such sites see it as a big plus)
Indeed, the rules are different in that condition. A privately owned and operated airplane can be flown under Part 91, which are the same rules Joe Sunday Pilot has to follow in his Cessna 150. But charter operators are under a different set of rules (Part 135) which are more akin to airline regulations.
Somebody mentioned VIP pressure to fly, and that’s a real thing. It’s a skill to be able to push back against that sometimes.
I mention all this only to make the point that… who the hell knows what the rules are for a high level government flight in Iran? For all the standardization in aviation, individual countries can still set their own procedures. I’ve flown with a number of pilots from parts of the world where they say it’s still pretty much the wild west as far as regulations and enforcement. One guy I knew from Russia told me stories that would make an FAA inspector faint dead away…
As far as I can tell, this crash happened under the same circumstances as the one that Killed Kobe, his daughter, and crew. CFIT into mountainous terrain while flying in poor to no visibility. The helicopter involved, for what it’s worth, was relatively new, purchased from Bell in the 2000s during a lull in sanctions. There have been issues with getting parts for maintenance under the current sanctions, but this wasn’t one of the helicopters left over from the Shah days. I have a higher than usual interest in those, since my dad was a Bell Helicopter employee in the late 70s and I spent my toddler years in Iran as a direct result.