You may be correct, although I still believe a reasonable recovery will swamp any other considerations, rightly or wrongly.
Kerry needs to distinguish himself from Bush on Iraq for it to play to his advantage. His plan to date seems to be to try to foist the whole thing off on the UN, and it will be difficult to distinguish between that and a “failed turnover”.
The interesting question to me is what will happen if Bush sticks to June 30th as a hard date for transition. How well does it have to go before voters believe Kerry would have done any better? And will the whole issue drop off the radar?
Kerry’s best shot might be to present himself as a leader foreign leaders can cooperate with, and therefore he will be able to get the UN to take responsibility in a way that Bush cannot. What Kerry has to be careful with is preventing any more discussion of his “foreign leaders all endorsed me” remark, or any general perception that the French, Germans, or Russians are choosing our leader for us. And if Kerry does get elected, and the other members of the UNSC simply tell him, “The US made this mess - you can damn well clean it up”, it will start off any Kerry administration with a big black eye.
Which I think they will do in any case, regardless of who is President.
Regards,
Shodan