I’d still think that Indiana would go Trump. True, Mike Pence was pretty unpopular here, and probably wouldn’t be reelected, but I don’t think that that’s enough to flip the state. It’s still pretty red. At least when I get back on that side of the river.
After Obama picked it up in 2008 the Nebraska Republicans redrew the district line to make it harder to flip. If she picks that up, that’s pretty big.
The new district is more Republican, but only by a couple of percent and changing population distributions may have nudged that back down (a Democrat won it from a Republican incumbent in 2014, but that was with help from a Libertarian spoiler). It is big if she picks it up, but not as big as picking up someplace like Georgia.
If anyone think’s Hillary’s low favorables are baked in, take a look at this chart. Trump is making her look good. There have been times in recent years in which big majorities of the country viewed her favorably – I doubt it will ever return to those heights, but it might get into positive territory. Some people that used to like her now don’t. I think some of them might be persuaded to like her again.
Dan Pfieffer and Jon Favreau of the Keeping It 1600 podcast say there is no way Hillary wins by more than 7% of the popular vote, no matter what the polls are saying. There is too much party identity and 20+ years of baked-in Hillary Hate for any significant numbers of Republicans to come and vote for her.
I forgot you could change NE-1. Yeah, she’d win that for sure. Obama won it in 2008.
538 currently midlines Trump’s lead in Indiana at 6-7 points. If Clinton suddenly gained eight to nine points nationwide, there’s no reason to think Indiana would be immune to that. It would not be a sure thing, but it’d lean blue in such a scenario, even if you give Pence a point in influence.
A 15-point win is, I must stress, incredibly unlikely. That would be a much larger margin than any election since 1984.
While I think it is PROBABLY correct that a Clinton victory would be in the order of 5-7 points, saying “there is no way” is just way, way too definitive. It’s a very unusual election and Trump is a very unusual candidate. I think one would be foolish to bet anything one really could not afford to lose against a Trump victory or a Clinton landslide.
Polarization is fine, but fear sells. Fear and emotion moves votes. If people become honestly frightened of Trump, they won’t vote for him.
The other point to keep in mind is that it is the fraction of those who vote. Trump is pretty much betting it all on turnout of traditionally less likely voters … and causing increasing levels of repulsion among more likely voters in the process. That’s an improbable recipe for a win in any case but if his unlikely voters fail to turn out (like they usually fail to do); usual GOP likely voters stay home, vote Johnson, or even flip sides at least for the top of the ticket; swingables go D; while there is also higher turnout and margins of usual Democratic voters … a 15 point win is possible. Mind you 3 months from election day it is also still possible to have a narrow Trump win.
former CIA deputy director Michael Morellwho served under both parties, independent, who has never discussed voting before has come out for Hilary Clinton.
His reasoning is quite forceful:
Well, there is always the chance the the US women’s gymnastics team wins a Silver Medal and Trump call them all losers.
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The Clinton campaign has already set up the “Russians are involved in our politics” angle that can be used to divert anything coming out of WikiLeaks. They can keep the ball of doubt spinning long enough to get them thru the election and Snowden and the Russians know this.
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WTF? What does this even mean? A lawsuit over what and how would a lawsuit even be addressed prior to the election. Speaking of lawsuits, expect the Clinton campaign to start hitting hard on Trumps taxes once they start to lose their primary bump.
The Wikileaks guy is Julian Assange. He is actively working against Clinton.
Edward Snowden is the guy who used to work for the NSA.
You’re right, I didn’t read the question as being something that had to happen prior to election day, so it was an inane response in relation to the specified time frame. When I wrote this, I was thinking about the 2+ months after the election, when DJT conducts a scorched earth policy because he lost, including doing everything from tossing lawsuits at as many people and institutions as he can, to starting his own political party as a giant FU to the Republicans, to asking his supporters to riot in the streets and doing his damndest to delegitimize the American political system.
His position very well may be, “there’s 2 and a half months prior to the actual swearing in, surely there’s something I can do”… and then go out and try to do it.
But, yeah, he won’t do that before the election.
Probably. 
Or that they might win the gold, yet Trump feel compelled to comment on the sizes of their chests (whether as being up to his standards, or, alternatively, as failing to meet his standards).
Anybody watch HRC’s press conference this afternoon? She’s getting much better at them and needs to do them more often.
Yes, not least because doing so would take away a favorite attack line (‘she never does press conferences!’) from Trump and his surrogates.
That and she seems more calm, more personable, more dialectical. The complete opposite of the shrillness that she is so often criticized for when doing large events.
Every press conference is a chance for a gaffe. With her this far in the lead, she is probably just playing it conservatively and hoping to run out the clock. Also before all discussion would have invariably turned to her e-mails. Now that that has been for better or worse resolved its a bit safer to go out in front of the press.
No better time to get the “no pressers” monkey off your back when your opponent has had the sort of month (not week, this started going bad with the RNC) Trump has had. Even if you say something stupid, your opponent is still Donald Trump.
Reading the transcript now, noticed that Hillary stated her campaign has a goal of 3 million new registered voters… of which, I’m sure, 80% or more will vote for Hillary.
I doubt Trump even has a goal, nor any chance of matching 3 mill.
I admire the civics of that registration drive, registering new voters is good clean fun. Golf claps for the HRC people. A bit concerned about waltzing into the minefield, voter registration is a fertile ground for opposition shenanigans.
By coincidence, case in point, the recent shenagians of James O’Keefe, paddy punk pimp. Brought to us by our good friends at Talking Points Memo…
Conservative Provocateur James O’Keefe Flops In His Biggest Fail Yet
A good solid sneer, if you’re in the mood for that.
But the worry remains, gonna have to scrape up a shitload of volunteers and train the living hell of them. Because the Forces of Darkness will be watching and the opportunity for ratfuck will not go unnoticed. Of this, we may be certain.