The hammer will fall way before the convention and more likely than not before the primaries are complete.
To some extent it has not fallen Obama has failed to yet deliver enough of an opportunity for the supers to come out in droves.
If he had clearly won Texas - meaning won the popular vote that day - it would have been enough. Dozens of supers were in the wings ready to pronounce her dead and to announce support. But it looks unseemly to do that after she did better than expected, even if she didn’t do well enough to really affect the outcome. “The speech” gave Richardson his timing but others will need to see one of several things to come out earlier than after the last primary: a virtual tie in PA (no more than 5-7% down anyway); a resounding win in North Carolina while keeping Indiana close or winning it; or such ugliness that most are solidly convinced that November’s chances are being damaged severely. Some are becoming convinced of the last but others see this as driving up Democratic voter registration. As Clinton acts more desperate more may perceive the danger to November’s prospect more.I am hopeful that Obama can do better than expected in PA and fairly confident that North Carolina will be the pr opening for supers to declare en masse if they haven’t before.
But chill, the supers will not go against both an over 100 delegate count deficit and a loss in popular votes. It will not get to Denver.
McGovern had, by the time of the convention, won 22 primaries, including New York, California, and Texas, and went into the convention with enough delegates to get the nomination. It was the party insiders who tried to stop his delegates from being seated (the “Stop McGovern” campaign, led by Jimmy Carter, actually)
The superdelegate system was put in place after 1972 to stop another McGovern from being nominated.
You’re correct only in the case of Mondale. Superdelegates were not instituted until the 1984 election, so they didn’t figure in the McGovern case. There it was mostly primary voters choosing - and providing ammunition to people who wanted party leaders to have a greater say.
After giving the party McGovern and Carter, this seemed quite a self-evident case for scaling back the reforms of the McGovern-Fraser Commission that opened up the party voting after 1968.
yes, my thread is clearly a big panic attack. but most of you were probably bill clinton supporters during his presidency and as supporters you are probably oblivious to their tactics… the clinton machine is a hardcore mofo that will stop at nothing to achieve victory. They’ll stop at nothing… I’m telling you now, don’t underestimate them, they’re ruthless. That’s all I’m saying.
Did you go see Obama at Rhode Island College when he came?
I did.
I live in Connecticut, I’ve been campaigning for Obama for almost 2 years…started slow by simply talking then went full monty about a year ago. He is going to march right into the Oval office. Luckily at this juncture, I don’t have to be blindly optimistic, I am realisticly looking at a campaign that will march to the WH. Hillary is done. Don’t fret. If there were a glaring reason to be anxious aside from: “…but, but, but the Clinton Machine…” I’d mention it. There isn’t.
My link on the DailyKos site is meant to reinforce this impression – they did think they had something to guarantee a win. Several times! And they used it, several times. And it didn’t work, pretty much ever. Every one of those attacks was meant to cripple Obama in some critical way: weaken him in Texas, hurt his support from the Hispanic community, turn independents away from him, and so forth. None of the attacks have changed the fundamental character of the race: he is a candidate who cares about policy and genuinely wishes to unite the country. She is a candidate who has always wanted to be President, and she knows that it’s her turn, and if things don’t work out she will be VERY ANGRY.
The OP is looking towards the future with trepidation because he has no idea what they’re going to do next. But if you look at what The Mythical Clinton Machine has come up with, you start to realize that they don’t know what they’re going to do next. They thought it would be over by now, so they have run out of ammunition.
Each of their previous attacks, when considered on its own, looks like it could have been a zinger if aimed at a weaker candidate and if handled deftly. Unfortunately, in aggregate, her attacks have been clumsy and tend to make her (not him) look bad; the best example is the “He’s not qualified to be Commander-in-Chief // He could be my Vice President if you vote for me” dilemma, which Obama disemboweled perfectly.
He’s a big boy now, and he can take care of himself. I won’t ever count the Clintons out until they say “we’re out,” but she is not in a position of strength: it is the superdelegates – not the Clintons – who have the power now, and every time Hillary tries to force their hand, she builds up a little bit more resentment. When the backlash comes, she had better pray that she’s waaaaay ahead in the polls and the delegate count.
I’m more concerned about the possibility that the Clintons will try to swing the election to McCain so Hill can run again in '12, now that she pretty much realizes she’s “forked” in '08. If McCain beats Obama, then the Dems will be reluctant to nominate a loser twice. It’ll be her “I told you so” moment.
Maureen Dowd expressed this today in her editorial:
But I don’t see how she can “steal” the nomination. If the superdelegates go her way, well that’s how the process is designed. No theft involved.
I doubt they’ll be staying silent for very long. More pressure will be coming to bear on them from party leaders who are not happy with what’s been going on.
