History without Hitler: a multiple choice poll

Assume Adolf Hitler was killed at an early age before he became involved in politics. What do you think would have been the effect on history?

This is a multiple choice poll.

Bruning http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_Brüning , Papen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_von_Papen , and President Hindenberg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_von_Hindenburg pretty much dissolved the Reichstag (in '32?), before Hitler held any governmental position. At first, Hindenberg did not want Hitler involved in the power elite, but eventually relented. Papen thought that he could control Hitler once Hitler was given a share of the power pie.

So, I think that some kind of authoritarian state was in the cards for Germany with or without Hitler. Various economic problems (the depression, the issue of war reparations, continuing unemployment) polarised the populus, but the communists couldn’t compete with the nationalistic message, so the controlling power elites would have been from the right wing.

My other two opinions (persecution, but not holocaust for the jews; and definately a redo of WW1) are more from my gut, so I cannot really articulate why I hold them at this time… but I’m reading biographys on Hitler by Ian Kershaw, and it’s interseting stuff.

Here’s what I see:

-A Nationalist (not a National Socialist) takes over in Germany and establishes a Third Reich. He does not persecute Jews and instead focuses on anti-Communism.
-The alt-fueherer focuses on an alliance with Eastern European nations against Stalin and ignores the West.
-A German-Soviet War breaks out and the Germans liberate large areas of the USSR and many minority populations rise in support of the Germans.
-Germans detonate the first atomic bomb over Russia in 1943 or '44 and the USSR collapses.
-The US gets in a Pacific War against Japan and crushes them by 1944
-The world is divided in a Cold War between the German-dominated Eurasian Alliance and the Anglo-American Oceanic Pact.

What happens to China in this scenario?

“We’ve always been at war with Eastasia”

What’s the position of France and the United Kingdom on all this? Are they hostile to German expansion but unwilling to resort to open warfare? Or are they unofficially supportive of German attacks on the Soviets?

I think some kind of right-wing (not Communist) authoritarian state would still occur in Germany. Possibly a military dictatorship (with the support of the tradition aristocracy and private industry. I think the right leader might be able to keep Germany basically democratic, if very conservative. Hugo Ecekner (not a politician) was approached to run against Hitler in the 1932 presidential election (he backed out after Hindenburg decided to run for another term) would be an interesting choice. State sponsered anti-Jewish persecution doesn’t rise beyond university and civil service quotas. No ban on intermarriage. German Jews remain alot better off that American Negros. Germany’s military ambitions are limited to united as much of German-speaking Europe with Germany proper as it can. Germany and the Soviet Union still end up going to war, but the US/UK/France/etc are either neutral or on Germany’s side. Germany (not having a colonial empire to worry about) dominates Europe economically and end’s up a superpower.

Chaplin would not have made “The Great Dictator”.

Presumably an American ally under Chiang’s Nationalists with the elimination of Communism as a significant political power.

I’d say they’d be uncomfortable with German wars of expansion but they’d be satisfied at the destruction of Communism.

The irony, Qin, is that anti-communism requires communism to exist. Without the common threat of communism, why would nations with different interests band together?

I checked that “some other Nazi” would have taken over Germany, but I would prefer to word it as “some other fascist and/or ultra-nationalist”. Such as the Steel Helmets, the army, or some other party of the far right. I doubt that the Nazi party per se would have amounted to anything without Hitler.

Every country in central, eastern, and southern Europe (save one, Czechoslovakia) succumbed to authoritarianism during the 1920’s or 1930’s, and I don’t see Germany being any different.

The “fascist lite” rulers probably would have been more like Mussolini in his first 10-15 years in power–moving more slowly, attacking only easy targets, and limiting themselves to garden-variety anti-Semitism with no Holocaust.

Eventually, with so much of Europe in authoritarian hands (either ultra-nationalist or Communist), another war would almost certainly have broken out. I’m not smart enough to track the likely permutation or result.