The AP has an excellent article up right now about the protestors in Hong Kong, their perspectives and their goals. Much of the article is interviews with a couple of people currently on the lam.
‘Desperate:’ Hong Kong protesters detail legislature assault
That’s key right there.
If I was living in Hong Kong and was under 50, or if I had a family with children, my prime focus right now would be getting out of Hong Kong. Because the future looks inevitable - and miserable.
I don’t quite understand Hong Kong’s relationship with China and how that will change in 2047. Is there a good link where I could get more information?
Also how is China making inroads in incremental steps? I thought it was a completely hands off thing until 2047.
Nope, not hands off. They’re influencing HK politics already and have been for quite some time. For one thing, Mainlanders have been flooding HK since the 1990s, and with it, they’re bringing a Mainland mentality that clashes with local HK citizens. But HK and China do trade. Although HK is a global financial hub, China’s its most important economic business relationship.
China wants the ability to prosecute critics of the Chinese government, which is why they’re urging the local HK parliament to pass an extradition law that enables them to snag HK residents for violating mainland law. HK internet bloggers or We-Chat group users who think they’re safe posting anti-Chinese sentiments could be accused of committing “crimes” in China, thereby enabling the PRC to press HK for their extradition. HK residents, who have grown up understanding that they’re “Chinese” but with the freedoms of the West are sayin’ “Uh, no”
I would, too, but that’s also what makes these protesters special and admirable. And in so doing, they’re hoping to call China’s bluff. Yes, HK is a part of China, but it’s a global port and a global financial center. Beijing knows that they’re being watched and that any hardcore crackdown in HK will be met with far greater and more intense condemnation than the Beijing crackdown was, and that was pretty widely panned.
Remember that part of China’s foreign policy and influence is predicated on being a China that’s not so dangerous. Even though HK is considered “Chinese,” it’s also considered semi-autonomous. A crackdown would send alarm bells in Taiwan and pretty much anywhere wherever China lays a claim. This would increase the likelihood of setting off an arms race in Asia.
China has a lot of problems right now, mostly related to Xi’s desire to control absolutely everything about everyone, like the lockdown they’ve placed on Xinjiang.
Thanks for the response. I was under the belief that “mainland law” did not apply in Hong Kong. So if someone in Hong Kong posts “Red China sucks!” on an internet blog then there is no law broken and nothing to “extradite” for, anymore than if I posted the same thing in the United States.
Why would the elected officials in Hong Kong even consider such a proposal, let alone have enough votes to have it pass?
Read the post above yours. Are you not aware of the programs that China has deployed the past 10 years?
I’ll preface by saying I am not an expert on HK/China’s relationship and the particulars of their relationship in terms of the law, but my understanding is that HK’s press freedoms and their freedoms to assemble and protest are things that Hong Kongers are acutely aware of and perceive growing encroachment coming from the Mainland.
As for why elected officials in HK would consider it, bear in mind that China is massive and HK is a city-state of about 7 million people. HK’s most direct trading partner is Guangzhou and Shenzhen, both of which are very busy economic hubs in South China. Hundreds of thousands - millions? - of people pass through the HK/Guangdong checkpoint daily. The connections are strong - and that’s just one Mainland trading zone. HK does business with the whole of China as well, of course.
The PRC has not taken a hands-off approach to absorbing HK into its cultural, economic, and political sphere. As I mentioned earlier, many Mainlanders have swarmed into HK. The locals even have a moniker for them: “locusts”. There’s already that kind of tension between Mainland migrants and the people who’ve lived in HK for generations and remember ‘civilised’ British rule. The PRC has used its migration to export Mainland thinking, but more than that, they’ve used their economic clout to support (some would say subvert) democracy in HK. Again, HK residents are acutely aware of this and resent it, but feel increasingly powerless – short of taking to the streets, that is.
If I understand them correctly, my sense is that HK’s protestors are hoping to embarrass the PRC and its puppets in the HK legislature enough to make them put the brakes on their continued perceived infringement of HK political, legal, and economic space. They assume (probably correctly) that the last thing Beijing wants, at a time when they’re increasingly viewed with suspicion, is to look like a territorial bully. Yes, HK is technically China’s property, but to the outside world, HK is a place where democratic and free market traditions live strong. It would be really bad optics if China tried a Tienanmen style crackdown in HK, which is not to say that they absolutely wouldn’t do it, but they’ll probably be very cautious in how they approach this situation.
I think this is incorrect. I think HK has largely moved beyond this stance “embarrass them”) and they now realize that this is, in fact, a revolutionary movement: it’s either freedom or being crushed & assimilated by the PRC at this point.
Are you suggesting that HK protesters are trying to break away from China? I can tell you now there’s absolutely no way in hell that will ever happen – ever. And HK’s protesters would be damn foolish if they ever hinted that this is where they were headed with their protests. That WOULD absolutely provoke Beijing into responding with crushing force and they wouldn’t give a shit how it reads in the papers.
The proposal wasn’t explicitly to do that. That was just a fear of what could happen, eventually, if the new law opened the door to Hong Kong residents being extradited to mainland China. The stated purpose was simply to allow extradition of fugitives to any jurisdiction with which there is no extradition treaty. The bill was introduced after a Hong Kong resident was accused of murder in Taiwan but could not be extradited.
Yes, I am. Or, they will be. Read that article I linked to about them being ‘desperate’. The people in the story are some of the people who organized the protest. When people reach the point where they understand that peaceful opposition not only doesn’t work but will get you killed but are still determined to press on using violence… that’s a revolutionary movement.
And yes, as the wall of 2047 closes in, they are starting to realize just what is going to happen to their lives. They don’t seem to like it. I suspect that many will be displeased enough to cause real havoc and make political demands. Look for assaults on off-duty police to increase in the next few months, along with disruptions of businesses tied to the PRC.
I’m not sure China could take HK without razing it to the ground and killing 5 million or more; the world wouldn’t just sit back for that.
Snowboarder Bo, China could have “re-taken” HK any time from the 1960’s. Just turn off the water supply. It is farcical to consider for a moment that HK can survive without China’s goodwill on food and water supply.
Whilst the Hongkongese might actually fantasize about becoming an independent city state ala Singapore, that would be a China decision and not HK. Since 1949 China has not entertained in the least that it might give up territorial claims, no matter how farcical. Certainly would not lead with such a valuable trading port as HK.
Unfortunately the Hongkongese are up against an empire, and hold almost no cards.
Oh, I know all that. HK is a tiny piece of land that is almost completely developed, similar to NYC. And I think that’s going to be the goal, eventually, is to set up HK as a permanent city-state. The HKese definitely have a long, hard road ahead of them to get there, but it seems obvious to me that is what the demonstrators want, they just haven’t confronted that fact themselves yet, most of them. I think they are starting to realize that that is where they want to be; now they have to figure out how to get there with an adversary that has size, money, and time on its side.
And how wealthy would New York City be if the United States decided to cut off all trade with it to teach New Yorkers a lesson?
Now you get a sense of what HK would be up against if they dared to test China’s resolve.
I don’t disagree that China wants to tread lightly here, but not because they’re truly fearful of HK setting up a city-state in the future, which is something the modern Chinese state would never allow. They’re being cautious with HK because they want the negative attention to go away. The most I could see HK achieving is a compromise that enables it to remain semi-autonomous on terms more favorable to HK, but over time, even that is doubtful. China plays the long game.
I have a sense, dude. I know what they’re up against.
Who has said China was fearful of anything? 
What China is really, really afraid of is that people who regularly travel to HK from the Mainland for business, or to visit family, or just as tourists, will start taking the protesters seriously and take dissent back home as a souvenir. They’re worried that teenagers visiting from places like Guangzhou, Shanghai, or Beijing might start getting a few crazy ideas of their own and spawn Tiananmen type protests later, which is a greater concern if China’s economy starts to decline noticeably.
One of the reasons why there hasn’t been another Tiananmen since 1989 is that the government has made sure that people have been able to offer the promise of prosperity. They understand the basic bargain that most people in any country strike with their government: take care of our basic needs, provide us with a basic opportunity to take care of our families economically, and we’re good. But if Beijing’s ability to deliver that promise is questioned, then it increases the likelihood that people will question the communist party’s moral authority.
That’s what China’s worried of right now: HK’s demonstrators are inspiring the next generation of Mainland protesters. The smart move, IMO, would be for Beijing (via its proxies in HK’s parliament) to negotiate for some sort of guaranteed semi-autonomy with no further restrictions for the foreseeable future. Beijing should even offer some concessions. Once they strike a deal, they can go back to sending more Mainland Chinese to live and work there and continue to inundate Hong Kongers with Mandarin speaking migrants. Beijing’s mistake was that Xi Jinping was too ambitious and moved too quickly, a mistake he’s made often.
The AP ran a nice pic with the story too.
But to flip that, although the United States would survive without New York, it would take a bit hit. Yeah, we could put down an insurrection at the cost of many lives, but to what benefit when all New York (in the hypo) is asking for is for things to remain as they are? Just to flex our muscles?
Likewise, why would China want at best an embarrassing confrontation? How is mainland China harmed by letting Hong Kong be a special district?