Wow. There’s a lot of history behind what’s happening, first. Then there’s the whole “desires of an autocrat” thing, which is the most important thing.
What about modern China, especially cities like Shenzhen and Beijing, leads you to think the goal is anything less than total conformity to the stated ideals and goals? Did you not read the link about Xinjiang? Have you not heard what they are doing to Muslims and Christians? Not heard about the social credit program? The unbelievably ubiquitous coverage of areas by cameras with facial recognition software?
Xi’s China is all about control and conformity. They narrow the acceptable down a little bit every year; they believe they have lots of time. I mean, it’s not like Xi is going to be voted out of office or anything.
And a Hong Kong that operates differently is out of the question for a “unified” China. They still have a couple of decades to squeeze, but they’re confidant they can mold Hong Kong into the shape they want. Many HK citizens are starting to feel the squeeze and know it won’t abate, only intensify, and they aren’t feeling happy about it.
Here is an article about Xinjiang. It’s serious horror-movie shit happening in real life. Try not to think about who China’s largest trade partner is, who’s money (and technology) flows into China that makes them prosperous enough to do this.
Or, so long as Xi and the CCP give them no more ‘issues’ to rally around, the movement may peter out (and then they can send more mainland Chinese to live and work there).
I know Hong Kong mostly through what I’ve heard from ex-pats and from what I’ve read, so may be wrong about this, but a common theme seems to be that Hong Kong is very crowded and very expensive. If that’s true, is there even decent housing for lots more mainlanders? Who pays their rent once they’re in HK?
With all due respect, Canto speaking Honkies are not the tail wagging the youth dog in China.
Honkies treated the mainlanders like shit in the 80’s, 90’s and beyond. There is a determined lack of sympathy by the mainlanders towards hong kong based on a lot of anecdotal experiences. My wife being one of them.
“the Chinese” believe in their manifest empire destiny". Tibetans, uigyers, Manchurians, Mongolians, etc have all historically been part of the motherland, and to the motherland they shall be integrated. Hong Kong, being nominally Han Chinese, is no different.
Honkies are fucked and they know it. It’s just how slowly can they be integrated to the Borg and is there any autonomy that can be carved out?
Understood, and I don’t really disagree with the thrust of what you’ve written, but lack of sympathy or not, the free flow of ideas is the free flow of ideas. Case in point, the Middle East is a region full of bitter rivals, and yet the Arab Spring was something that spread from one country to the next, which is not to suggest that there’s going to be a Chinese Spring, but there is no question in my mind that Beijing is more than just a little concerned about the possibility of the scenario I laid out.
You could have an entire generation of 15-24 year-old kids traveling in and out of HK who view the Hong Kongers are stuck up - they can still have a highly negative opinion of Hong Kongers and yet admire their fighting spirit and give it a test run under the right circumstances. Personally, I don’t think that this would happen unless the economy really deteriorated, and in response, Beijing did something stupid, like raiding pensions or other benefits, or hiking up taxes – there’s always good old fashioned inflation, too. Don’t think for a moment that under the right circumstances that certain impressionable youth wouldn’t fight back, especially if there are lots of unemployed, under-sexed young males running around. People living in China dismiss this possibility at their own peril. I don’t give a shit how tightly they monitor We-Chat or Weibo. Humans are humans, and when they’re pissed in sufficient numbers, watch out.
I get the sense that HK’s Beijing-leaning government and Beijing are trying to find a face-saving way to back down without making it look like they’re intimidated.
But the fact is, mass demonstrations are intimidating. It’s the ultimate show of power. I don’t give a shit how sophisticated the surveillance state is: when people get angry and feel like they’ve been crossed to the point where they don’t care what happens to them, that’s a terrifying feeling for a government official to be in. It’s unpredictable.
Elections are great, but what happens when representatives the people elect ignore the citizens? There’s a reason the freedom to peaceably assemble and petition the government for redress is the First Amendment to the Constitution. Don’t for a moment think that the significance of having masses of humanity show their teeth was lost on the likes of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison.
The protesters have a game plan, and they’re coordinating and implementing it to near perfection. One critical lesson they learned is not to discredit themselves by being unnecessarily disruptive; they’re focusing on their targets, and they’re garnering sympathy while not letting their behavior impede the lives of ordinary people. What’s fascinating, and perhaps unique about the HK protests, is that it’s not taking place concurrently with elections or campaigning; it’s a reaction to a law being enacted by an existing and legitimate government. As such, this perceived crisis requires an innovative approach, and HK’s protesters appear to have adapted to the times. They’re one or more moves ahead of local authorities, and they’re forcing Beijing to consider their own response to a crisis they didn’t anticipate.
Correct: they have stopped reacting and are now acting. They are controlling the narrative. And they are doing it in a way that allows them to form or disperse with near-telepathic communication that their opposition cannot penetrate. They also are communicating with the general public in a similar way, although with less focus, through the Post-It notes.
Like I said, IMO concerned Americans should take note of these tactics.
This is the first move by the Mainland. It’ll use “patriots” to fight the protesters. Perhaps they’ll be arrested but receive only slaps on the wrist with special treatment in jail, or perhaps no prosecution at all. They’re no doubt doing this with the support of the government. Goons are more effective at taking out protesters than the local police in this case.
As with any protest, there is always risk. We talked up-thread about the possibility of American protesters adopting similar tactics of non-violent protest if things come to a boil in this country. Well this is probably how the radical right wing would respond. They’d send the goons out first. Maybe it’s the militia members. Maybe it’s bad-ass biker gangs. Maybe it’s the Pinkertons or Blackwater. Who knows? But protesting is never without hazard.
The UK sold HK down the proverbial river. Long story short, the UK could have put HK on the path to democracy post WW2, and instead treated it like a colony. When it got closer to the 1997 handover and formulation of the Basic Law, the UK suddenly started making noises on democracy and self-rule. The Chinese basically said “you didn’t do jack for a couple of decades, so nuh-uh”
This makes no sense. First of all the British Empire basically stole Hong Kong from China with that 99 year deal. But the 99 year deal lasted 99 years. What could have the UK done differently? HK was a colony, and a colony which could not be granted their independence, because they couldn’t.
