Post WW2 Britain could have tried to make HK independent, failing that Britain could have instituted democracy back in the 1940’s. It was only in the final countdown to the handover, that Britain even pretended to start some democracy. The Basic Law was formulated IIRC in 1984.
I’m not sure that would have kept Hong Kong out of China’s hands. Being on the very doorstep, a PLA invasion would have been esssentially impossible to fend off. Sure, China would have faced international censure but chances are that would have just blown over in a few years, like how nobody cares about Russia and Crimea anymore.
I read somewhere that the difference between the French and the British Empires is that the British left behind effective administration; the French left behind coffee shops and bakeries. Based on my travels, I’d say that’s about right. The problem is that the UK left behind administration, but not a sense of self-determination. I mean, have the British ever been interested in any of their colonies being independent?
I’m not saying that China would have left HK independent. But had there been a 50 year history of voting and representation, China might have tolerated some of it.
No need for an invasion. Turn off the water and food coming in from China, and game over.
I think many people in Hong Kong, especially the younger ones, must believe that this is truly their last chance. The longer they waited, the more pervaded Hong Kong would become by the Chinese government, and the less able they would be to extricate themselves from the yokes being used in Xinjiang on the Uighurs.
It’s sad that it can’t end well. There is no escaping 2047.
Even if the US claimed it wanted to get involved in assisting HK, what leverage do we have now? What are we gonna do, impose tariffs and economic sanctions on China? What kind of pressure is an increasingly isolationist UK going to bring to bear? Who’s going to step up to put pressure on China? Who would punish China if it cracked down on HK like it wants to? Probably no one.
To be sure, China doesn’t want a spectacle, especially not now. But it’s hard to see how HK pushes China back. There will eventually be a price that’s too high for these protestors and their families to pay. And the protests will stop.
US could revoke the Most Favored Nation trade status and have goods made from there go from costing practically nothing to ship to actually costing money. A surprisingly high amount that’d put a major dent in their economy and the US’s. But it’d actually hurt China directly, as oppose to tariffs.
They won’t, but they could. If Congress consented.
The pro-democracy protest playbook was written by Eastern Europe and North Africans; the anti-democracy playbook has been written by Bashar Al Assad, Vladimir Putin, and the Communist Party of China.
On one hand, pro-democracy forces will refuse to be governed and occupy space. On the flip side, the anti-democracy forces will murder those who resist.
The blaming of the US is almost certainly a pretext for a brutal crackdown should Beijing feel the need.
There’s a good reason that China is nervous about Hong Kong, and it’s not really because they’re worried about HK breaking free from China. They’re worried that resistance will spread to the Mainland, and turn into an all out student and/or labor protest, and this is especially true during a time when China’s factory and tech sector production is slowing down to levels not seen in more than a decade. Hundreds of thousands of people cross the checkpoint from HK to Guangdong Province daily. Many of those who pass have family ties in both HK and Guangdong, so it’s impossible for the Chinese government to completely keep people in the dark.
The protestors are loosely structured but can organize themselves quickly, on the fly:
Interesting phrase, eh, “become Chinese”. That phrase alone is going to enrage Beijing, IMO. Couple that with the symbolism of removing the Chinese flag and hoisting an Independent Hong Kong flag… ooof! Powerful stuff.
Societies all over the world, including our own here in the US, grapple with that question.
I wonder if the people who were throwing bricks were actually legit protesters or members of China’s intelligence services trying to smear the movement – or maybe Chinese intel is online encouraging anarchists to join the fray and #disrupt. If the movement turns into a mob, then the movement becomes less legitimate.
This is setting up for a showdown. Thirty years ago, the PLA, just like Bashar Al-Assad in 2011-13, showed how to put down a rebellion: with sheer brutality. If Beijing gets the sense that the protest is starting to influence labor dissidents in China, I suspect we will begin to see a brutal crackdown. The PLA absolutely will shoot protesters dead in the street.
Frankly, if they did that, I’d say there’s at least a 10% chance that people start burning Hong Kong to the sea.
If China is going to be smart about this, they will realize that time is on their side. Given their propensity for exerting control, tho, I wouldn’t bet on them being smart about this.
Traditionally, Chinese leadership has exemplified long term thinking, their plans enacted over decades if not centuries. Xi (and his successors) will wait things out, all the while strengthening their hold on Hong Kong’s infrastructure, communications, and surveillance.