Relations with the US suck anyway, and besides everyone is distracted, the Chinese seem to be ending Hong Kong’s special status. I hope I am not being panicked by the headlines. But it seems President-for-Life Xi has decided he has had enough of “One Country, Two Systems.”
It was fun while it lasted.
You’re not wrong, and it is not surprising. Macau may last longer because of its gambling revenue but China has made clear their ambition to dominate the Greater East Asian sphere of influence, and having autonomous regions n its own nominal borders is inconsistent with that goal.
Stranger
It’s bad news if you are a Chinese resident of HK, but I don’t understand the “chilling warning to rest of the world” part of that article. Is somebody under the impression that the Chinese have plans to impose the same system on Hawaii?
The article doesn’t really say anything about that, does it? I looked at the Human Rights Watch site, and the most recent post is dated a month ago, and has nothing about the new regulations from Beijing. I don’t understand what Newsweek is seeing that we’re not seeing.
The cynical side of me says I’m surprised it lasted this long, I never believed that Beijing meant anything but to absorb Hong Kong while trying to keep the money flowing. Then I wonder if Beijing is planning on running tanks down the streets of Hong Kong and massacring protesters. I know it’s easy for me to say from the comfort of my living room, but I hope the protesters keep up the protests and don’t give up.
Hope not. As a blue state, Chump would probably just withdraw the troops here back to the mainland.
The entire Western news media seems to be reporting this. From the Washington Post
The BBC’s take seems a little more muted in its tone, but the danger to “One Country, Two Systems” does seem very real.
Is anyone surprised that something like this would happen sooner or later? And probably a lot sooner than this. One can only wonder: What took them so long?
IIRC, North Vietnam agreed to keep hands off South Vietnam after the United States pulled out. How long did that last? (Something like a week or so?)
It’s a clear sign that the Communist regime in China has no intention of political reform.
And even if you’re willing to write off the fate of the billion people who live in China, this also has repercussions for other countries. One way the Chinese government has traditionally suppressed domestic unrest is to push the idea that China is threatened by foreign enemies.
Hong Kong was only allowed to exist before it was handed back because it benefited China. Portugal actually tried to give Macau back but China said “not now, later.”
With the boom in South China and Canton (Guangzhou) and Hong Kong is about 80 miles and shenzhen to Hong Kong is only like 20 miles, so the Pearl River Delta doesn’t need Hong Kong’s economy. Even Shanghai has ramped up and taken much of Hong Kong’s trade and economy in the last twenty years.
After ~250 years of Enlightenment liberalization in western Europe and societies based on that model, with Adam Smith, natural rights, democracy, free speech, freedom of conscience, etc., it’s a chilling thought to consider if liberty doesn’t actually give any material or political advantages in the modern world. If the China model of oligarchic bureaucracy represents the future. What if societies don’t particularly need to be democratic any more?
How much of the material advantage accruing to China is due to theft of technology and ideas from more free countries and individuals? How much of what it takes to get rich in China is based on one’s ability to wangle one’s way into the good graces of the bureaucracy?
I don’t know the answers, but it is my opinion that these are not qualities conducive to innovation and progress.
I tend to agree. I think a dictatorial regime can be good for catching up with other countries that have an economic or technological lead. But I don’t think it’s a good system for leading the way.
Any significant progress is a form of revolution. A technological revolution may not call for political change directly but once the technological change is in place, political change inevitable follows.
Any regime in power is going to be conservative in that it will want to stay in power, if for no other reason than because it sees itself as providing the best government to its people. In a liberal democracy, the regime might want to stay in power but it’s unable to do so if the popular will wants a change. But in a dictatorship, the regime can ignore what the popular will wants.
So if a regime has a choice, it will avoid significant progress. A regime will, consciously or unconsciously, want to keep things the way they currently are because the current conditions are the ones that have placed them in power.
“The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter”, as Churchill probably never said. It’s not looking great for the West right now, when our system has given us Trump. At the least the Chinese government has basic competence.
Our system gave us George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Democracy would have given us Al Gore and Hillary Clinton. I’m not seeing this as showing a problem with democracy.
It’s happening. It’s not that surprising, especially considering that I think the CCP has finally realized that Taiwan isn’t going to voluntarily come back into the fold with the enticement of the One Party (sorry, Country) Two Systems bullshit. I think they will get more push back about this than they think, but they are so far across the line now that they probably don’t see it as a major downside right now, and probably hope that the west will eventually forget about it when we go back to business as usual.
The CCP are a bunch of tone deaf and stupid ideologues, who think they know what they are doing, but really don’t. I think they have made a(nother) calculation here and are betting they are right and that they might as well rip that scab off now, take the pain and then move on. The people of Hong Kong are in for rough times. I’ve heard from family of my sons partner who still live in Hong Kong that a lot of people are looking into immigration options to Taiwan. No idea how true that is, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
From what I’ve read, Xi is consolidating his power internally as well. He is considered the most despotic ruler since Mao, a title not to be taken lightly.
He’s undoubtedly as furious at Hong Kong’s defiance as Trump would be and has the means to back it up. If he gets away with Hong Kong, we can expect Taiwan to be in danger. And control of the seas around China would be next, even if it meant confrontation with the U.S. I would bet that he doesn’t consider a shooting war over island territory a realistic possibility by any U.S. president.
Trump’s withdrawal from international relations has been a boon to him because it opened doors for China to exert dominance and/or leadership over third world countries as well as international stature in gestures like offering $2 billion to WHO. (Not to mention he benefits internally from both Trump’s hyperbolic praise of China and from Trump’s angry but empty threats against China.)
China has somewhat amazingly avoided a serious depression despite endless warning signs. I’m not sure whether one would make Xi more likely to move on outside territories or less. Without a collapse even huger than the pandemic, he’s appears to be in good shape to achieve his goals.
I suspect, but cannot prove, the Chinese are cooking the books. When a reckoning comes it is going to crash the whole world.
Honkies are fucked. I’ve written that before. I lived in HK for about 5 years total in the 1980’s and 1990’s. I lived there for the handover. I hope they go out protesting, and as I know the Hongkongese, they will. Salute.
BUT they are up against the Empire that has left Manchurians (the Qing Dynasty and Last Emperor) 3% of the Manchurian population, Mongolians less than 20% of Inner Mongolia, Tibetans probably now less than 20% of Tibetan areas (where they were still a majority in the 1980’s), the Uighers under siege.
Taiwanese economy is deeply entwined with China. And they are next to join the Borg.
@Paul - what cooking the books are your talking about? If you’re referring to widespread covid transmission, you’re off base. I’ve answered dozens of CT on these boards. Factories are up and running (although an open question if the sub tier factories are good), people are not dying in the streets of Wuhan or Shanghai.
I suspect that there is widespread financial fraud in China. This is all great fun when the good times roll. But the last recession showed that when times are bad the fakers and fraudsters will be found out. Imagine a few hundred Chinese companies all collapsing. That will leave mark.
As in the old joke: All they want is the land that adjoins theirs.
Not all at once, of course. Bit by bit’s much easier to pull off.