If the UK was charting out conflicting interests on the EU side of the table, running a hectic diplomacy, calling in favours, making promises and reminding nations of old alliances, I’d feel more comfortable about the whole issue. After all, keeping European interests divided has been your foreign policy for 800 years.
The problem is, I see no sign of any of this. It is the most worrisome aspect of the whole thing. The Brexit negotiations are probably going to be the most important thing for British prosperity, maybe the existence of the UK, for generations. And you’re not going into them with what seems to be a competent leadership. I mean, looking at the weeks following the Brexit vote, this is the lot that’s going to champion you? The Conservatives ran a cannibal feeding frenzy as arranged by Mr. Magoo, and Labour the night of long knives hosted by Inspector Closeau.
The Uk is not the British Empire any more, its not the 1800s, and Europe is not divided into a score of feuding nations. I suspect the problem is that Britains gentle decline from Empire has been obfuscated by its EU membership, and a large group of people has little understanding of how sclerotic its become.
In the war movies, it’s tough but straightforward - storm the beach, fight fiercely against the Hun, and win the day with grit, determination and big guns. Victory is essentially a matter of character: stand up to the enemy and battle through.
In reality, D-Day’s success rested on months and months of insanely detailed planning. They don’t make movies about this, because people sitting in a room is boring. But that’s what it took. Getting soldiers off the boats and on to the beach (where, for the avoidance of doubt, bravery and grit were vital and shown in full measure) is the final step in a long process. Getting them on to the boats, in the right numbers, with the right equipment, in the right order; maintaining communication between different regiments, squadrons and fleets, between armies of different countries; knowing the weather, the topography, the shore currents; taking samples of the sand from beaches by stealth to assess whether they will bear the weight of tanks; carrying out large-scale training exercises; waterproofing every last vehicle, a bunch of stuff I can’t even list because I don’t understand the technicalities of large scale continental invasions…
Men, sitting in rooms, with charts and lists and technical specifications, for months and months and months. Boring technical detail which culminates in a superior strategic and tactial advantage over the enemy. Without the work, you end up with a lot of heroes slaughtered on the beaches.
My increasing fear is that Davis, Fox, Johnson and May think they can get by on the movie version without bothering to waterproof their vehicles or assess the weight-bearing capabilities of the sand.
Even than, that all 27 EU countries have stated they stand together - Spain, Poland, Hungary - and will not Broker individual deals Shows a strong Determination.
And of course, the first Thing Spain thought of was not British tourists / pensioneers, but … getting Gibraltar back. Because, why not? Everything is up in the air, why worry about offending the Little Island Nation?
What is this election supposed to accomplish anyway? For the british Population, I mean, not the parties and politicans getting power.
It’s even worse than the Referendum: instead of voting Remain or Leave (or “now that we’ve looked at things, maybe we’ve been blinkered by politicans playing a game amongst themselves, but the consequences look not good, so maybe lets reverse this”), the Brits can decide between
Tories, who are for Brexit
Labour, which is also for Brexit (because Globalization is bad for workers, so instead of using the Lever of EU to put the Brakes on international companies, we’ll leave the Special Projects of the EU to help underdeveloped regions, and we will no longer use the freedom of work, which might benefit workers)
UKIP, which is for radical Brexit.
So … good choice there?
As for May claiming it’s about getting her course of Brexit approved by the Population - what course? There is no course. The EU has published some cornerstones for the upcoming negotiations, and are behind doors working on drafting steps: doing all the necessary, boring, time-consuming nitty-gritty work.
May has … made Statements without any concrete substance. Just that Britain will get everything better and all it wants (along with Ponys, I assume, because why not wish big if you’re living in Fantasyland?)
Ah yes, that’s why back when in the 80s Thatcher, the Iron Lady, broke the unions and privatized everything, the UK become a growing, strong, flourishing paradise.
Oh wait, no, it didn’t. Workers and poor got shafted and suffer still today from the aftereffects, because the later govts. didn’t correct anything about that drastic cut.
Because they found out “Hey lets blame the EU for everything that’s wrong today works, the tabloids will feed the hate, and the poor workers will still vote Tory” worked for them.
So when the economy takes another hit after Brexit, the politicans can feel secure because they can still blame the EU and Germany for being so mean to them.
This is an important point; the history of every industry is littered with the corpses of boom towns and “irreplaceable” businesses.
But a nuanced view is necessary - London will not cease to be a major financial centre and many businesses will remain. What will end - is already ending - is the reign of London as the financial centre. Many businesses will leave, or will decentralise and move parts of their business to places like Frankfurt. That “irreplaceable” expertise will either go with it or be sourced there; there’s nothing inherent in the British drinking water that creates unique levels of financial nous Johnny Foreigner can’t hope to achieve.
London’s financial sector will not be destroyed or even decimated but it will very likely be diminished - diluted, if you prefer - and the world will move on. What it leaves behind remains to be seen.
In other words, they negotiated trade deals. The gunboat meant that they were negotiating from a position of considerable strength, but they still negotiated the deals.
And up_the_junction, why all the complaints about Germany being mean? The British people took a vote on whether they wanted Germany to continue being nice to the UK or not. They voted that they didn’t want Germany to be nice. They’re now getting exactly what they voted for.
Until the Brexit went through, London Stock Exchange wanted to fuse with German Stock Exchange in Frankfurt - a “partnership among equals” - despite rebuffing attempts 10 years earlier Deutsche Börse - Wikipedia
Obviously, something in London and Frankfurt had changed in the meantime making such a Fusion attractive; but with Brexit, the whole Thing is on ice/ off. So maybe London SE wasn’t Feeling well before; and with comapnies/ People leaving for EU because of wider market Access, it will likely be weakened.
“Dictating your Terms because the other side has to accept everything” is not usually what People mean today when talking about “negotiating”.
May can give the EU a wish list of what GB wants to have. The EU will look at it, give back their Terms, and say “Take it or leave it”, because they are ready to let the deal fail if Agreement can not be reached.
Since May has claimed to want at least the same conditions, possibly better ones, and the EU has no reasons for Special conditions for a non-member, I don’t see how May wants to accomplish that without negotiating. Which usually means giving a bit one one issue, and offering something extra elsewhere. Which May can’t do because of Trouble at home; but the EU politicans won’t get into Trouble at home for being hard on GB. If anything, most EU citizens would be angry with their politicans for being soft on GB, after all the Trouble they have been previously.
Eh, even with a gunboat, a completely one-sided trade deal is likely to just get you a bunch of natives rebelling. Once that happens, even if the gunboat can quell the rebellion, you’ve probably decreased the value you can get out of the colony considerably. So there was still a motivation to make some sort of actual deal, just one that was skewed in favor of the side with the gunboat.
A huge chunk of the UK still wants to believe the EU is a happy-clappy Eurovision event full of quirky but lovely people who all just want to get along.
It really isn’t; it’s always been a vehicle for German economic imperialism, to which the euro provided the engine. Example; Berlin’s treatment of Greece was been appallingly, dreadfully ruthless. Similarly Spain - still suffering from 25% youth unemployment.
The current reality check - this relentless personal bludgeoning of Theresa May - is a helpful reminder of what Germany really is about.
I don’t know what you mean. Don’t you realise that everything is someone else’s fault? Londoners, the middle class, Germany, “Project Fear”, immigrants - they’re all against the will of decent, ordinary, hardworking, ordinary, decent, ordinary British hardworking people. The case for Brexit is flawless, and the Prime Minister must not be questioned. All this is self-evident, and our insistence on him presenting an argument supported by actual evidence is proof that we hate all working class people living north of Watford. It’s so simple - all Leavers want is sovereignty, control of borders and Purity of Essence. Is that too much to ask?*
(On an unrelated note: why is this thread still in IMHO? Surely we’re well into GD territory. Might flag down a mod and ask.)
The irony is that, while this characterisation is deliberately hyperbolic, all these are related to views UTJ has actually expressed (except the POE thing, obvs).
May has just given a speech stating that Brexit presents a grave threat to the prosperity of Britain and the economic security of its residents. She was very clear that things could go to ratshit very easily.
… the person who became Prime Minister for the specific purpose of shepherding Britain out of the EU thinks it’s a grave threat to Britain’s economy. Endorsements just don’t come more ringing than that.
This is what economic imperialism looks like; current Euro area unemployment (you may need to scroll down to find Germany). Notice the countries Germany has ‘helped’ remain in the euro system: