As far as where he should campaign and who he should campaign with, that should be data-driven. He should campaign where he’s relatively popular with swing voters, and send surrogates to campaign in areas where he’s not.
Hillary Clinton is often criticized, I think unfairly, for not campaigning in the Midwest during crunch time of the 2016 campaign. I think it was likely a rational decision that Hillary wasn’t very popular with voters there, and it was better to send surrogates to talk about how bad Trump was.
As far as what issues to push, I’d go with a top three of abortion, the economy, and not being Donald Trump. I agree with whoever said above that we need to draw a clearer line between Republican Supreme Court appointees and the loss of abortion rights, and shouldn’t be afraid to also focus on the ethical and personal shortcomings of those Justices.
I’m very happy that whoever writes Biden’s tweets for him has been snarkily making fun of Trump’s financial and legal problems and hope that keeps up. We need to draw a balance between recognizing that he is, on the one hand, a serious threat to democracy, and, on the other hand, a walking punch line.
As far as advertising and GOTV efforts, fortunately it looks as of now like Biden will have a substantial advantage in campaign funds, so we shouldn’t need a genius-level plan to come out ahead in that area.
I agree with this, and disagree with those who say that Trump’s voters are so brainwashed they won’t care if he’s actually convicted of a crime before the election. I think there are a lot of low information conservative/centrist voters who have tuned out the Democrats accusing Trump of crimes, because nothing ever seems to actually come of it. But that’s not the same thing as not caring whether he commits crimes or not. I think if he’s actually convicted of anything before the election, Biden will win in a massive landslide (and the RNC is now controlled by Trump toadies, so it won’t do the logical thing and find another candidate).
Agree Democrats have to get people to vote - it’s the best way. But, the whole electoral college thing ups the ante in several key states. Sure, Biden should spend some time everywhere, like spreading peanut butter, but there are a few key states where he needs to focus, where it may be close - and let’s face it - the election matters more in those states than the country as a whole. Some states are guaranteed blue, and others are lost cause red. Accept that.
In those areas he needs precision messaging to get swing voters over to voting for him, and Democrats out to the polls. Electoral college delegates are the prize here, not the popular vote. The key is in messaging - what should he be saying to voters in these key states?:
Nevada
Arizona
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Georgia
Just repeating the same messages being used in California and New York fundraisers wont make much an impact in these states - he needs to roll-up his sleeves and get into the trenches, and show people what he has done in each of these states to make people’s lives better, even in the face of stubborn inflation and other challenges. It’s gotta go deeper than “I’m not Trump” in those states.
I also agree hitting Trump and Republicans repeatedly in the mouth on the abortion issue is important.
It doesn’t look like a great strategy right now. Trump is doing well in polling.
In 2020, in addition to the fact a lot of people hated Donald Trump, Biden benefitted from the fact people didn’t like the way things were going - the pandemic was hurting people. Now people still don’t like the way things are going, but this time Biden will take the blame for it.
2020 was odd in that people generally voted AGAINST something. That is not normal. Election winners are usually the candidates that present the clearest affirmative reason to vote FOR them (whether it’s true or not.) That’s how Trump got just enough votes to win in 2016; his message was dumb, but it was very clear. That is how most winners win. 2020 was atypical.
The Biden campaign should focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That is the most likely path to 270 electoral votes and these are states that are pretty much more blue than red among purple states. There is work to be done in Michigan with Arab-Americans but hopefully it won’t be too difficult to win most of these people back. I don’t see this group voting DJT but it is important to make sure they don’t decide to sit it out this time around.
Arizona and Nevada would be the next states I would suggest they focus on. Then North Carolina and Georgia. If possible get Barack and Michelle Obama to campaign in both places and have Stacey Abrams run the GOTV effort in GA.
They also need to hammer hard on a woman’s right to choose in all of those states as well.
Ohio, Florida and Texas are lost causes and I would discourage Biden from wasting a cent in those states. The DNC of course needs to pour as much money as possible into the Senate races in both Ohio and Texas (as well as Montana and Arizona) but I don’t see how Biden going to those states for campaign rallies with any of those candidates helps them win. They would be wise to keep Joe at a distance.
These are the reasons why Biden should focus his campaign on reminding people of who Trump is and what things were like in 2020.
Biden lacks charisma. He’s not going to inspire people like an Obama, a Reagan, or a Kennedy. Biden is a competent politician. When he’s President, we’ll have four years of normal politics.
As you note, a lot of people dislike normal politics. So Biden needs to remind people there are things a lot worse than normal politics.
Yes, and this is the perfect year to get those things going. The Republican party is in total disarray, and the RNC has devoted itself entirely to Trump. This means that there is likely going to be zero money and attention left for the lower level races. Spread those coattails Joe.
I think you’re spot on with everything you wrote. My only quibble is Florida, which now has an abortion amendment on the ballot. Given what has happened when abortion is on the ballot in races across the country for the last 2 plus years, I think taking a swing at Florida makes a certain amount of sense.
Are you talking about the DWAC/DJT stock price? I wouldn’t make much of that. Back in January, it tripled in a matter of days, and climbed even higher until recently. It’s extremely volatile and could once again skyrocket, completely undermining the point.
Of course, if you’re talking about the ~half billion he’ll soon owe the state of New York, and the likely ensuing collapse of his entire business operation, then by all means hammer away.
To add to this, he should remind voters every chance he gets what a mistake it was to take their eyes off the ball with respect to Supreme Court appointments. There’s a good chance Biden will have at least one and possibly two picks for SCOTUS in a second term. People should be thinking about that.
I think anyone that is informed enough that they care who gets appointed to the Supreme Court is already an informed and engaged voter, has probably already made up their mind, and are extremely likely to vote anyway.
And I think that many regular voters took it entirely for granted until the overturning of Roe. I think it would matter a lot to women who previously didn’t pay much attention. It can’t hurt.
Make sure that every Democrat in swing states is registered to vote, and then check again. There are many stories of Republicans scrubbing voter polls and removing legitimate voters.
I think the single most important state for Biden to campaign in is Arizona. He needs to hold the state and he needs the Democrat to win the senate seat. Nevada shouldn’t be ignored, but the risk-reward is a lot smaller. I’ll suggest 15% of his travel go to here. Messaging here should be about healthcare costs, economy, social security, and border security.
Next are the Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. Senators are running in all of these as well. Ohio and Minnesota probably won’t flip, but I’d still like to see a little time spent in them to mix things up. I want Republicans to feel some pressure in Ohio. I’ll suggest travelling here maybe PA 15%, MI 15%, WI 15%, Ohio 10%, MN 5%. Messaging should about economy first and abortion second.
And finally Georgia and North Carolina need campaigning. Both are winnable and losable. I’ll suggest 20% of his travel split between these two states. Messaging here should be abortion by a wide margin, then education, economy, and voting rights.
There were people on this board who dismissed the importance of the Supreme Court appointments. I remember bringing it up in a thread in 2016 and being told that was minor.
If I had a nickel for every woman (mostly women) who’ve said to me in the past year, “I never paid much attention to Supreme Court Justices until they overturned Roe. I just didn’t think it mattered that much,” I’d be, well, not rich. But I’d have a couple bucks.
Sadly true, but those folks also won’t be the audience of any of Biden’s speeches.
And while “he’s not Trump” is important, you don’t win an election by being not-someone. He certainly shouldn’t pretend Trump’s legal troubles don’t exist, but they shouldn’t be the centerpiece of his campaign, either. Every time he brings up Trump, it has to be in contrast to something good he himself is doing, will do, or has done.
Biden can win without winning Ohio, but he can’t win without trying to win Ohio. Ohio’s demographics are very similar to those of the country as a whole, and so what moves voters in Ohio is going to move a lot of other voters in other places.
Obama had the right idea with his “50 state strategy”. Everyone knew he wasn’t going to win all 50 states, but the fact that he tried to win even the hopeless states probably turned some of the swing states for him, because some folks in the swing states are like the folks in the hopeless states.
You’re putting the cart before the horse. She wasn’t popular there precisely because she didn’t try to win them over. And so she ended up losing states that should have been easy Democratic wins. Let’s not repeat that mistake.
One hell of a lot of Floridans are not MAGATs and between abortion and DeSantis’ ongoing rape of both public schools and college education, one hell of a lot of people are ready to throw the RW extremists out.
They just need to know, in the face of a relentless RW media blitz, and parading pickup trucks with trump flags, that they are not the only people thinking that way, and that their vote matters and matters crucially.
Biden is running against most famous person in the world. People already have an opinion about him.
Swing/uncertain voter focus groups aren’t a panacea, because lots of people fail to understand the true motives leading them to favor a particular candidate or party. However, that’s the best information the Biden campaign has, and they should follow it, as done here:
So, based on the partial information I have, my advice to the Biden campaign is:
– Ask Joe to announce that he’s too busy governing to spend a lot of time campaigning.
– Pass along as much as you can, of the money Joe raises, to Democratic House and Senate candidates. They are less well known to the voters, and so minds are more open. Since split ticket voting is becoming less common, Joe can ride on the coattails of Democratic congressional candidates. And even if that last sentence is too optimistic, it’s a mistake to think Joe can win by campaigning.