Palestine is a huge problem. I go back to something my niece posted. She’s 35 years old and as liberal as anyone on this board. She posted about how Biden supporting Israel’s campaign in Gaza was supporting murdering babies. She’s not someone who is against Israel as a country. She posted she doesn’t know how she can vote for anyone who is supporting the military campaign. There is little chance anyone who thinks like that will vote for Trump but they will stay home or throw away thier vote on a third party. Trump can afford to quip about it and play both sides. Biden can’t without alienating large portions of his base.
He should avoid a debate at all costs. It would gain him nothing, and Trump gets under his skin too easily with his constant interruptions and yammering. Hard-hitting campaign ads are a better tool, IMO, as he needs to lure his former base out of hiding and get them to the polls. He’s not going to sway many (if any) of Trump’s base, and a debate exposes himself unnecessarily.
Normally, there’s no such thing as winning a presidential debate. It just reinforces what voters already think. But both 2020 Biden-Trump debates were the exception — Biden actually won:
Also, I’m pretty sure if you ask swing and uncertain registered voters, they’ll say the candidates should debate.
Now, the debates can only be held under Commission on Presidential Debates rules. Trump will try to get attention by challenging the rules, and Biden has to reason to pay attention to that.
If Trump has a lead, he may sit on it and refuse to debate. Nothing Biden can do about that.
In that case he should debate anyway, put an empty chair for Trump and tear into him without response.
Put an emphasis on Trump chickening out on the debate.
Likewise with Hillary. Each time the two debated, pro-Trump people that I knew came to me saying, “Oh my god, the man is an idiot. How can anyone vote for him?” And then, about two weeks later, they’d be back to being pro-Trump.
Peer pressure, FTW!
Biden’s best strategy would be to ensure that the debates are much closer to election day. The window of impact is fairly small, and then everyone forgets everything.
The word huge is overused in these horse race discussions, but it is a problem. Biden appears to be trying to please everyone in his base. He is siding with Israel in practical terms but, to show he is compassionate to all, is sending Hamas the message that Rafah is their refuge, and, if they only hold out long enough, Israel may desist and let them regroup for another round a few years from now. So your niece is not the only sort of Democrat who is dissatisfied.
Just as a political question, which is what this thread is about, there is no Gaza policy change that would predictably help Biden. Hamas surrendering may, but they have proved a determined adversary.
He’d be preaching to the choir, so it would be a pointless exercise.
Biden and Trump have no say there. The dates are already set:
I don’t know if doing a Clint Eastwood impression is the way to go here unless he also wants to look crazy.
Sorry I meant to say bigly.
Trump thinks he’s a great orator. He thinks it’s his biggest strength. Most of his rallies are off the cuff with very little prepared material because he thinks he’s the great communicator. There is no way Trump turns down the chance to talk in front of a camera. He could be running uncontested and he would still show up.
While this is true, Trump also cannot tolerate any exposure to risk. His rallies are all friendly audiences, and agreeing to a debate may expose him to tough questions from moderators and boos from the crowd, which may hurt his widdle feewings. He rarely orates in front of an ad hoc audience. For that reason, I think he is bluffing Biden with a debate challenge, hoping Biden will back out first. Biden should not blink on that.
With the election being on November 5, they may as well have scheduled that in 2022 for all it will matter.
From 538’s poll aggregate, in 2016, there was a clear and significant adjustment to the numbers following the debates - which then reset to baseline.
Everyone’s spending so much time watching, “Don’t believe your lying eyes” TV that they simply can’t survive it with their only unadulterated view of the actual candidates, stating their actual policy positions staying in mind for so long a period.
I remember that time that George W Bush’s head of border security detailed to Congress why it would be a waste of money to build a wall along the entire length of the border. Your average person probably just remembers Bush as “That guy who was president during 9/11” and maybe not even that.
Your average Doper just isn’t the average person, and the smarties who come up with and vote on policy all keep screwing up the elections by thinking about themselves and people like themselves - people who know and understand things - when planning how to organize an election so that it will produce a meaningful result.
I think you are underestimating his self delusion. He thinks he has handily won every debate he’s been in. Just because his handlers get him captive audiences most of the time doesn’t mean he has any fear of losing a debate. Especially against Biden. He knows he can bully himself through any debate and he’s probably right.