How big a bump for Kerry after convention?

Various polls have Kerry/Edwards with a 1 percentage point to 3 percentage point lead over Bush/Cheney.

Realizing that the polls will fluctuate between now and November, I ask only this:

How big a bump will Kerry/Edwards get in the polls immediately following the Democratic convention?

Give me a number.

I’m guessing, the first polls after the convention will show Kerry/Edwards ahead of Bush/Cheney by 7-8 percentage points.

Very small. Two or three points. I’ll bet on three. The reason it is so small is that most of the electorate is already firmly in one camp or the other.

Bushies are spinning that the Dems should see a 12 - 15% bounce to set expectations that a smaller bounce is, in fact, a failure. I am inclined to look for a 3 - 7% bounce.

But you know what? On the issues that the candidates have control of, most, if not all, folks have decided where they stand. And on the issues that candidates don’t have control of, who knows what will happen leading up to the election and how voters will react?

Remember, for instance, the terrorist attack in Spain - the voters turned overwhelmingly against the incumbent. But - near as I can tell - it had less to do with the actual attack - and, by the way, fuck you terrorists for trying to claim that - but more that the incumbent tried to spin the attack as coming from the Basque, which played into the incumbent’s campaign messages; and he then tried to withold preliminary analysis which suggested that perhaps Al Qaeda was involved. When that got out, the voters were up in arms.

The point - both the events that lead up to the election - and just as importantly, the candidates’ reaction to them - will be the most telling things come November, IMHO.