So as of right now, before the GOP conclave in New York City, what’s everyone’s guess as to who will be elected President in November?
(Please note: I’m not asking who you would want to win, I’m asking based on the current political landscape, who do you think will win. Keep your policy debates in other threads.)
Some data points to consider:
Electoral Vote.com has a pretty nifty state-by-state breakdown based on the most recent polls in each state. Right now, it has Kerry winning the EV 280-238, although it shows California in the “Barely Kerry” column, due to a recent poll putting him at 49-46%. It’s thought this poll is an outlyer because it’s so out of line with other polls.
If you want a similar site that’s blatantly pro-Bush, go to www.electionprojection.com. It has Kerry winning by an even bigger margin, 311-227.
A pro-Democratic site with emphasis on polling discussion is Donkey Rising. Right now it shows a series of polls in the battleground states, with Kerry leading all but Ohio and West Virginia. But most of those leads are pretty small, less than 5%, and some are within the margin of error.
Today’s LA Times poll (free registration required) shows Bush ahead by 3%.
Things seem to be trending Bush’s way a little bit, and the convention should probably continue things in that direction. The Swift Boat ads are definitely hurting Kerry, and his response has been slow and anemic.
But the economy is not improving, we’ll soon hit 1,000 dead servicemen and -women in Iraq, and a majority of Americans still think the country’s heading in the wrong direction.
And of course, the electorate is highly partisan and things aren’t likely to swing drastically one way or the other.
So who do you think is going to win? What are the campaigns doing right or wrong? What other factors are out there that could tilt this thing one way or the other?