I predict Kerry winning by 100 or more electoral votes. He’s had a solid lead in those electoral prediction polls for a while now, and I don’t see that changing drastically. I doubt the upcoming convention will give Bush any more of a boost than Kerry got from the last one.
Despite a wager I have on the outcome, I won’t confidently predict a winner. I believe that it will be razor-thin in the popular vote and close in the electoral college, and the population will continue to polarize over the next four years.
Actually, it is a wonder to me that Kerry hasn’t campaigned on this very issue.
Although I definitely have a preferance, in all honesty I think it’s too close to call right now.
Let’s say people vote their wallets. In a lot of states, only a few thousand jobs gained or lost would swing the outcome.
Let’s say people vote security. Would another 9/11 or a huge loss in Iraq rally people behind Bush or make them feel he wasn’t getting the job done.
Let’s say people vote character. Will there be another SBVT attack on Kerry? Will the persistent rumor I hear about a certain Republican (and no, I’m not going to repeat it here) suddenly explode into media exposure?
There are two months left for all sorts of surprises.
Landslide for Kerry. Karl Rove’s Swifties have already fired their big gun and barely dented the ship. Bush keeps claiming to have turned the corner, but hasn’t figured out yet that he’s going down the wrong street. I see some red states turning blue (Florida, Ohio) but none going the other way.
Pretty much what you see now. Who’s still open to changing their minds?
Kerry 53%, ~300 EV’s. Bush hasn’t scored on him, as **Bob ** points out, but he hasn’t scored much on Bush, either.
Well, now Electoral Vote, which I cited in the OP, is projecting a smaller Kerry win, only 270-259. They state, and I agree, that the swift boat ads are working. It’s not even the ads, which are airing in only, what, three states, but the media firestorm over them and the Kerry campaign’s painfully slow and meek response to them.
I, a Kerry voter, don’t like this at all. And the GOP convention will also result in a bounce for Dubya, which probably means the campaign heads into September with Bush in the lead and with the momentum.
Gaagh. Amazing what a bunch of liars and political hacks can accomplish when the media’s so pliant and intimidated.
I don’t see a bounce for Bush with his convention. Few people will watch it other than the faithful. People watched Kerry’s speech just because they wanted to size up the man. We’ve been there done that with Bush. The unusual thing about this year is that the battle lines are already so well drawn that very few people are in the middle looking for a side to go to, hence no big bounce.
I tend to agree, since there are so few undecideds to create a bounce-- the same thing happened to Kerry.
But… and here’s the big but… As few undecideds as there are, if Kerry doesn’t give them a real reason to vote for him, they’ll go to Bush. And “I’m not Bush” isn’t going to work with the undecideds. If it would, they’d have already decided.
As for the Swifties having already shot their load, don’t be surprised if the Bush political machine has some other weapons being held in reserve until much closer to the election. All these “gotchas” tend to shift the polls a bit, but then everything goes back to “equilibrium” in a few weeks. So you never show all your cards too far in advance.
IOW, I’m going to say it’s just too early to call since it’s so close.
I am very sorry but I agree with you. There may be some mud left to sling and some is surely being saved for the last days of the campaign.
Bush, as the incumbent, has the advantage here. People already know everything about him they’ll use to make their voting decision. But Kerry is still vulnerable, especially to the undecides, of being cast in a certain light by the Bush campaign.
Kerry needs to get out there on the ***offensive ** * and make the undecides decide. If he doesn’t, he’ll lose most of them on election day.
I’ve got to take issue with this John. Undecideds tend to run away from the incumbent in the last weeks of an election. If that holds true then Kerry’s biggest job is to make sure to NOT give them a reason to NOT vote for him.
I’m going to have to disagree with that. An *ordinary * incumbent, one who hasn’t screwed up all that much and has a somewhat-positive approval rating, is the safe default choice, yes. Bush’s ratings are so negative, though, that the default might well be Kerry, lesser-known but still representing the traditional, responsible type of political figure who doesn’t screw up at every turn.
My suspicions aren’t any better grounded than yours, but they tell me that the undecideds are going to break for Kerry as soon as he “sells” them, and that that will be done by the debates. I’m not that worried about his counterattack ability; after the RNC next week Bush will be under the same spending limits himself. Gonna be close no matter what, but something big has to break *for * Bush and not against Kerry to change the dynamics here.
John Corrado, still sticking with your Bush 56% prediction of a few months ago? Here’s your chance to tell us.
JC: They do? Why? If they’re undecided for that long, it means they really don’t see that much difference. In that case, why vote for change, especially in a time when most of us see ourselves as being under attack from without.
But I don’t have any empircal data to support my view. Is there any out there that supports yours?
I don’t have a site, but I have heard a figure that 85% of undecideds break for the challenger in the closing days of a campaign.
But those negatives are generated by people who have already decided. If you haven’t decided, you probably don’t think Bush is an idiot.
Well, that’s just another way of saying what I said. The debates might be just what Kerry needs, and that’s probably why he’s asking for more (IIRC, he recently challenged Bush to weekly debates),
I’ve heard similarly, but the doesn’t the “we’re under attack” situation change that calculus? And you can bet your bottom dollar that Bush will be emphasizing that in his message at the convention and afterards.
The bottom line is that we are really not sure. That figure may be good only for ordinary elections and I have never seen in any previous election anywhere near the passion and vitriol that we have this time around. The sides are more firmly trenched in than at any time in my memory. So perhaps this is like the big rival football game where stats go out the window.
No, the “we’re under attack” approach either has already worn off to the point of counterproductivity, or isn’t affecting and won’t affect people who are still undecided. Sure, he’s going to hammer on it next week, because it’s all he’s got.
The undecideds/persuadables reasons might well not include thinking that “Bush is not an idiot”, there can be a host of others. Just a few that come to mind are:
- Yeah, but so what? He’s kicking terrorist asses, he’s learning the job
- Kerry’s an idiot too
- He’s a big-picture guy keeps out of things he doesn’t need to know the details of
- He has a great staff to cover for him
Keep going yourself if you like. The human ability to rationalize is boundless.
As for the debates, I’d like to believe there’s no way Bush can “win” anywhere but on the Fox chat shows, not with the focus of the questioning on *his * record than on Gore’s sighing. It is not what you were saying, John, not unless you think the debates could break *for * Bush.
I haven’t posted for a while, but I think most “charter members” will label me PROGRESSIVE.
That being said, there are a series of factors that jumble up the predictability of this election:
a. The mass media [FOX, CNN, The NY/LA Times etc] reports are really slanted: I just read a CNN online report that said Kerry ahead slightly [1%] blahblahblah then the rest of the article reported on the impact of those Republican Pro Bush boat people…
b. excuuuuuusse me: we have 12% Americans below the poverty line, the economy is bonking, we normally moral Americans haven’t demanded the retirement of Rumsfeld for the prison debacle, the Najaf uprising, high offical discussions with a bounty hunter on trial for human rights abuses in Afghan, oil prices sky high [altho Bandar Bush may give us relief in October] - where is the outrage on these issues?
c. Sample size is waaaay too small; let’s increase it to lower that percentage fudge rate of 3 to 4% either way. But then again… all the brouhaha would disappear and no one would go out to vote.
d. dumbing down the debate to increase circulation/online hits/tv-radio listeners.
e. dumbing down of the electorate
I am American who lives overseas. I’ve been to the US twice since April this year. I fear for my country because how this election is being handled by Republicans, Democrats, media, pollsters. I was shocked by the yelling and personal attacks on so called news shows [CNN, FOX, MSNBC] so much that I wondered had I traveled back in time to 1930s Germany?
My country is so lost; we continue to fight the Iraq war with a strategy that don’t work, our fellow Americans abuse prisoners of war, we have reached the point that high officials are talking to bounty hunters, Republicans are supporting Nader,
the economy is just shitty and its probably gonna get worse.
Sadly, We have lost our way.
So, who is going to win? Not Nader. Bush? Everyone else will be a loser. It has to be Kerry. I can’t think of the consequences of another stolen election this time when passions are so high.