A pal and I were discussing the upcoming election and I continue to think it’s got ‘squeaker’ written all over it. I think Kerry will win a close electoral race based on his lead in the bigger states.
Simple enough.
But he also said he didn’t know ANYONE who thought it would be a GWB landslide. I remember there were some folks here who thought that a while ago so I thought I’d ask if anyone thinks that will happen.
And, for that matter, whether Kerry will win in a landslide.
For our purposes call a landslide an EV landslide a victory of 100 EV or more.
I certainly don’t. The election will come down to about 5 states - Ohio, Florida, West Viriginia, New Mexico and Nevada. Ohio or Florida plus 2 of the others will decide the winner.
I do remember someone on the board who said he honestly couldn’t imagine Kerry getting more than 3 states (CA, NY, MA). He was serious. Can’t remember who it was, though.
I read an electoral vote poll last night that showed the Democrats ahead, but nowhere near enough to win. I looked at the “too close to call” states and even then, the winner will have to get electoral votes in little pieces, rather than one big state.
No way in hell do I see a 319-219 margin when it’s all over.
I’ve got a bet to propose. Unlike JC’s other friend, I’m interested in the popular vote, and what I think is this: Kerry’s more likely to win the popular vote by a solid margin than Bush is.
So here’s my proposed bet: for some x between 2 and 7, inclusive (you choose the value), if Kerry wins at least 5x% of the nationwide popular vote, I win the bet; if Bush wins at least 5x% of the nationwide popular vote, you win; if neither candidate wins that much, it’s a wash; nobody owes anybody anything.
I’m prepared to offer a similar bet on the electoral vote. Pick a number between 300 and 360. If Kerry gets at least that many electoral votes, I win; if Bush gets at least that many, you win; otherwise, it’s a wash.
I’ll take the wash, Kim. My guess is around 47-49% for the winner, 45-47% for the loser, and roughly 2% for Nader. Rounding error goes to the more fringe candidates. Can I get any action on that one?
Maybe you don’t understand the bet; for x=7, it’s not “If Kerry gets at least 57% of the popular vote, I win; if he doesn’t, you win,” it’s “if Kerry gets at least 57% of the popular vote, I win; if Bush getts at least 57% of the popular vote, you win; if neither candidate wins that overwhelmingly, neither of us wins the bet.”
I think it’s extremely unlikely that Kerry will win 57%, but I think it’s downright impossible for Bush to do so, so that’s why I’m willing to make that bet.
The reason I’m capping it at 57% is that it’s all but impossible for either candidate to get 58% or more of the popular vote, so I’m not gonna waste my time with bets of one near-impossibility v. another.
I say Bush 52% (rounded up from 51.5_%) / Kerry 47% (Nader will be but a blip)
Why? I’m not even voting for Bush, but I predict: (1)The Iraq flip-flops will disenfranchise his progressive base. (2)This swift-boat thing isn’t going away. (3) There will probably be a major terrorist strike on our shores before Novemeber.
Not from me. Obviously, a close outcome in the popular vote is more likely than both extremes put together. But I think one extreme v. the other is a reasonable sort of bet.
I’ve already got one straight who-will-win bet on the election, thanks to Bricker, and I’m not looking for more action there; I bet when I’ve got a point to make by doing so, and I’ve already made that point.
My point here is that I think that if one candidate wins by something even remotely approaching a landslide*, it’s gonna be Kerry.
My concept of ‘landslide’ with respect to Presidential elections was set by Johnson-Goldwater and Nixon-McGovern. So to me, a real landslide has to at least approach 60% of the popular vote, and should preferably top that. We won’t see a ‘real’ landslide this time, by that standard. But we could certainly see something remotely approaching a landslide - which I’ll define as anything upwards of 52% in the popular vote for the winner. And if we see one, Kerry will be the one who wins. I have spoken.
I proposed the bet with x=2 meaning x=2, not x=1.5. If you’re willing to bet on Bush clearing 52.0000000% v Kerry doing the same, you’re on. But:
Not for that much money. A bet that large, I’d have to clear with the wife - and she’d exercise her veto. How about $50? I can bet that much on my own say-so.
Bush >52.00% I win & you brown bag your lunch for 2 weeks.
Kerry >52.00% You get to take your wife to dinner.
If neither win >52.000000001% of the popular vote, it’s a draw.
Being from the divorced side of the fence, I know 1st hand of which you speak.
