We're in the home stretch: Election predictions

How many times have most of us said “it’s too early to tell” in the previous election threads? Well, we’re in the home stretch now, and it’s time to buck up and make your predictions. The last debate is tonight, the last jobs report is out, and baring any major terror attack, all the news is pretty much in.

I’m predicting a Kerry win for the following reasons:

Bush’s approval rating is at 47%. That’s the best predictor out there of what the election results will really show. Bush did very poorly in both debates, and the third one isn’t going to save him. Kerry has been able to ease the minds of the undecideds by doing very well in the debates. Has the loser of the presidential debates ever won the election? Bush’s biggest claim to fame is the Iraq war, and he has failed to convince a majority of Americans that it was the right thing to do. The reasons for the war have fallen by the wayside, and we’re doing a mediocre job at best at winning the peace.

I’ll be voting Libertarian this time. I voted for Bush last time, but I don’t want the Republicans fielding another candidate like him in the future. Iraq was an unnecessary war, and there’s simply no excuse for a Repulbican to run the deficit up as he’s done. Those two items simply don’t outweigh those actions of Bush’s that I did agree with.

My vote is somewhat of a cop-out as I don’t know what I’d do if I lived in a swing state. I’d probably vote for Kerry in that case, even though I don’t much care for him, since I don’t think he’d be able to implement much, if any, of his domestic agenda-- the Senate may go Democratic, but the House will stay solidly Republican. CA is going for Kerry no matter what I do, so I’ll take the opportunity to boost the Libertarians. They often field some pretty loony candidates, but Badnarik doesn’t seem to be of that sort.

Well, I’m in a swing state (New Mexico) and I’m voting Badnarik as well…I just can’t stomach voting for either of these guys.

Wow, on the spot now and have to come down firmly on who will win ehe? Well…I think Kerry will squeek it out by with a VERY close margin. I just don’t see how Bush can swing the undecided vote to him. Baring some 11th hour radical change in Iraq or with the economy (both things I think are highly unlikely), I don’t think he’s going to do it, reguardless of whether he wins the debate tonight or not. Kerry has been both smooth and confident (and LOOKS presidential), and while I didn’t think Bush did that bad, he failed to really get his message across.

So, Kerry by a nose.


I’m predicting a Bush win in the EC with another loss in the popular vote, together with accusations of fraud in several close states, and a continued schism in the country. I predict congress will be called to impeach Bush, but will choose not too based on its Republican majority. And I predict history eventually will rank the various strategies that got Bush in office both times as heinous as Watergate.

But I’m in a bad mood right now. Other times I believe Kerry may actually win.

I’m in Texas so I’m going to throw my Presidential vote away on encouraging third party candidates. Hopefully they’ll stay engaged and someday field someone who can challenge the major party candidates.


Bush will win with between 280 to 300 electoral votes. He may even win the popular vote. If he does not win the popular vote, look for a justified democratic effort to change the electoral college system once again.

The Senate and House will remain in Republican hands.

What do I get if I win?

Kerry wins by a healthy margin. Despite all the saber rattling, new voter registration is at an all time high and Republicans are jumping ship. Even those who won’t publicly admit they aren’t voting Bush, will grow a concious in the booth.

I agree. I forgot to add in the OP that I still think it’s going to be a ***very ***close election. And although I think it was Iraq that will ultimately be his downfall, Bush could have salvaged a close win if he didn’t royally screw up the first debate. It wasn’t that he made any huge gaffs-- he just didn’t sound anywhere near “presidential”.

Further screw-ups in Iraq, more tax cuts, and higher defecits.

Kerry wins with 307 electoral votes. What the polls aren’t showing is the “cell phone factor”. The polls are conducted exclusively on land phone lines, and those who have given up the land line in favor of exclusive cell service are I believe younger and less conservative than those that didn’t. Also, the newly registered voters are going to be a major factor.

I predict Bush wins in a close race. I think that Bush’s black and white approach appeals to the masses more than Kerry’s nuances.
BTW, I hope I’m wrong.


I have no prediction, but my boss is firmly convinced that Bush will win. He’s too old to have faith in the correctness of his own politics, I guess, or maybe it is just not having faith in the American people. :stuck_out_tongue: (I say that from his perspective, not mine.) I’m interested in seeing that many areas are swamped with registration being higher than expected. But FOX didn’t tell me whether there was any information about the political affiliation of all these new voters (did they lean heavily to either side). From the areas they mentioned, I’d guess democrat, so here’s hoping for a Kerry win, but I don’t feel comfortable about that.

I do think that whoever wins will win both the EC and the popular vote, making any more talk about this “outdated” electoral system hopefully quiet for a while.

I think Kerry wins the popular vote by around 2%. But, of course, it’s the EC votes that count. I’m thinking Kerry pulls it out in the EC, but I’m much less sure. The win will be laid at the feet of increased voter turnout.

I predict that there will be one, maybe two large swing states that are very close – close enough to legitimately call for a recount. And that these one or two swing states make the difference in the EC. Despite being very close, they aren’t quite close enough to warrant a challange, and the loser (probably Bush, possibly Kerry) will concede gracefully. Topic of discussion in GD for the next 6 months is: should a recount have been mandated in state X?

Judging by this thread, Badnarik comes out of left field (err…right field?) and wins the presidency. Well, with all those disatisfied repubs out there, I think he’ll at least beat Nadar.

I’ll say it’ll be close, but favoring Kerry as the wind seems to be blowing in his direction as we approch the last few weeks. I also think that the public is becoming a little more skeptical of Repub spin as a result of seeing that Kerry wasn’t the complete wash during his debate that repub spin made it seem he would be and a general preception that Cheney may have gone a little overboard in creative-factmaking during the VP debate.

I predict it will either be Kerry or Bush. :wink:

I want to see Kerry win by 300+, just to send a clear and concise rejection of Bush and his neoconservative agenda.

I suspect we’ll get a few more “surprises” between now and November to prevent this, though. Karl Rove’s not out of tricks yet…

Roughly what I expect too, minus the effort to change the EC.


You know, I never liked that movie much. It always seemed far fetched to me. I mean, how did those space rovers REALLY stay on the asteroid? And when they were throwing the pipes, why did they fall as if the gravity were normal?? And those shuttles!! How could they weave in and out of the debris field like that???

Well, I hope Evil will like his movie (does he get it on DvD or VHS?) IF his prediction is true. Personally I think he’s wrong…but I want a better movie if I win DtC. What do I get if Kerry wins by a nose??? :wink:


Yeah…This is part of what worries me. I’m not going to make any predictions. I’ll just (at least approximately) quote Niels Bohr: “Predictions are very hard, especially about the future.”

What do I get if Kerry wins by a nose??? [/QUOTE

I have a plan for that…

We’ll be holding a summit meeting to determine your prize, and a vote will be taken in the UN general assembly. We want to make sure that any prize awarded passes a Global Test. Expect to hear back from us in 2008. 2012 at the very latest. OK, maybe it’ll be 2016. But you can be assured that it won’t be the wrong prize at the wrong time for the wrong reason.