We're in the home stretch: Election predictions

[El_Kabong]

I believe it’ll go to Kerry by a slight margin, but I’m not astute enough to be able to predict a specific percentage or number of electoral votes.

(aside) I’d like to make the gesture of voting for a third-party candidate, but I think its so important that Bush be unseated that I’ll save that for another time. Of course, being in Texas, I’m probably gonna end up throwing my vote away anyhow.

[RedFury]

@Diogenes the Cynic

Armageddon.

I hope no one thinks you’re joking. He’s already lit the fuse and he’d only make it burn that much faster in an unrestrained second-term pResidency. Problem is there won’t be many “I told you so” going around if I’m right.

In that vein, I have to believe that the majority of Americans are not insane – thus Kerry wins it comfortably.

[Harborwolf]

@xtisme

You know, I never liked that movie much. It always seemed far fetched to me. I mean, how did those space rovers REALLY stay on the asteroid? And when they were throwing the pipes, why did they fall as if the gravity were normal?? And those shuttles!! How could they weave in and out of the debris field like that???

Well, I hope Evil will like his movie (does he get it on DvD or VHS?) IF his prediction is true. Personally I think he’s wrong…but I want a better movie if I win DtC. What do I get if Kerry wins by a nose???

-XT

You get a copy of deep impact, further reinforcing the fact that no matter who wins the election, we lose

I hate to make a prediction before tonights big debate, but I will anyway. I’m going to say Kerry by a small margin due to increased numbers of registered voters. I just hope that it won’t be as close as the last, because I found that whole thing to be enormously tiresome and I really don’t want to see GD or BBQ in the event of another recount.

[BrainGlutton]

What I’ve said all along: Bush, with his war, immigration policies, USA PATRIOT Act, Department of Homeland Security, runaway spending and budget deficits, has done too much to alienate too many people in his conservative base. He’ll only be able to count on the big-biz conservatives and the social-religious conservatives – and to the latter, he’s given more talk than action. A lot of registered Republicans are going to stay home on e-day, or leave the presidential line on the ballot blank, or vote for Kerry, or even Badnarik or Nader – anyone but Bush.

The Democrats, liberals, progressives and leftists, on the other hand, are motivated. Turnout, turnout, turnout.

Kerry takes it. Even without Florida, he takes it.

[GomiBoy]

Too close to call… I am waiting for Rove’s (as well as the DCCC - they are not innocent of last-minute tricks themselves) last minute miracles and I fully expect both Ohio and Florida to be contested heavily by whoever loses them in the first counts.

I actually think the third debate might sway a lot of voters, too. It’s all about appearances, and Bush didn’t appear very presidential on TV for the last couple of debates; he looked pissed, edgy, cranky, and like he was insulted to be questioned at all. But Kerry did look presidential; Edwards kinda did as well, although not as well as Cheney.

[hatesbush]
Maybe for the third debate he shows up in a flight suit with a padded crotch? That would be presidential.
[/hatesbush]

Cheers,

G

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

@xtisme

You know, I never liked that movie much. It always seemed far fetched to me. I mean, how did those space rovers REALLY stay on the asteroid? And when they were throwing the pipes, why did they fall as if the gravity were normal?? And those shuttles!! How could they weave in and out of the debris field like that???

Well, I hope Evil will like his movie (does he get it on DvD or VHS?) IF his prediction is true. Personally I think he’s wrong…but I want a better movie if I win DtC. What do I get if Kerry wins by a nose???

-XT

The day after tomorrow.

[Loopydude]

My rational mind is close to being overwhelmed by my tendency to predict the most unfavorable possibility as a way to prepare myself for the undesired outcome.

My rational mind says: It could go either way. Whoever wins may get a “majority” of something, but it will be so close that, given the built-in margin of error, is a statistical dead-heat. That’s not a cop-out: It’s my honest read of the polls right now, since Bush and Kerry trade the lead almost hourly. Barring something really earthshaking altering the political landscape over the next few weeks, expect a candidate elected by the thinnest of margins, no clear mandate from the starkly divided electorate, and another four years of painful contention.

My irrational mind says: Bush wins due to Murphy’s Law. Just substitude “Bush” for non-specific terms in the above paragraph.

[XT]

@John Mace

We’ll be holding a summit meeting to determine your prize, and a vote will be taken in the UN general assembly. We want to make sure that any prize awarded passes a Global Test. Expect to hear back from us in 2008. 2012 at the very latest. OK, maybe it’ll be 2016. But you can be assured that it won’t be the wrong prize at the wrong time for the wrong reason.

I’ll be holding my breath in hopeful anticipation in that case. With my luck though it will be a rare laser disc version (non-playable on modern hardware of course) of the Bowling for Columbine and F/911 gift set. :smack:

@Harborwolf

You get a copy of deep impact, further reinforcing the fact that no matter who wins the election, we lose

NOOOOOOO! :smack: Though I agree with the sentiment…its certainly a no win situation for me.

@RedFury

I hope no one thinks you’re joking. He’s already lit the fuse and he’d only make it burn that much faster in an unrestrained second-term pResidency. Problem is there won’t be many “I told you so” going around if I’m right.

We know DtC…and know he wasn’t joking. Doesn’t mean it WASN’T a joke of course. Come on, let go of your partisan blinders at least enough to realize that saying a Bush win will be ‘Armageddon’ is just a little, you know, over the top. Just a little mind you.

-XT

[XT]

@Diogenes the Cynic

The day after tomorrow.

Gods, thats worse!!

-XT

[SpartanDC]

I was wondering when this thread would start… but I think it’s still at least 2 days too early for these kinds of guessing games. Lord only knows what the last debate will hold and how the media will spin it afterward. I imagine that I, and others, will feel more confident about posting in this thread after all that happens.

I have no reason to believe Kerry will not win (both on points and on spin) the debate. But stranger things have happened in American politics. I’ll be back to post in this thread on Friday.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

I’m not gonna make any predictions. It’s too close to call, and I suspect anyone who says otherwise, in iether direction, is letting their hopes and fears cloud their thinking on the issue.

Daniel

[Debaser]

@John Mace

…and higher defecits.

You really think that we’ll see more spending with Bush than with Kerry? Keep in mind, Bush has kept all spending increases way down or even cut them with the notable exceptions of defense and NASA.

Kerry’s claiming he will spend even more on defense and he will certainly be pouring much more money into social programs than Bush would. Unless you think that Kerry will raise taxes enough to cover all this, he will be the president with a higher defecit.

[Debaser]

Oh, and to the OP:

The election is way to close to call. Even the polls taken the night of the election are routinely wrong in close races. I’ve no reason to believe that they are accurate now with weeks still to go.

[Knorf]

I think it’s still way too close to call, and realistically could easily go either way. Right now in my gut, I’m thinking Kerry’s got it, but I agree that Congress is probably going to stay in Republican hands. And that is just as well. Although I’m royally pissed at Republicans right now (because of Bush), honestly I think it’s better when the president and Congress aren’t controlled by the same party. The branches of government are supposed to in an adversarial relationship. Certainly, Congress is not supposed to be the president’s lap dog. Checks and balances, you know.

[Debaser]

D’oh!

“too close to call.”

[toadspittle]

@erislover

I’m interested in seeing that many areas are swamped with registration being higher than expected. But FOX didn’t tell me whether there was any information about the political affiliation of all these new voters (did they lean heavily to either side). From the areas they mentioned, I’d guess democrat, so here’s hoping for a Kerry win, but I don’t feel comfortable about that.

Good reason for discomfort.

http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2421595&nav=168XRvNe

[5que]

We won’t know the winner on November 6th.

Hope I’m wrong, but I think there are going to be screams of election fraud by both parties in the majority of states.

Last night I caught part of an interview with John Fund, columnist for the Wall Street Journal, author of “Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens our Democracy”. It was scary. Absentee ballots, provisional voting, motor voter problems (apparently some of the 9/11 hijackers were registered to vote in Florida from getting drivers licenses :eek: ), etc. He predicts if it’s a close race, it’s going to be chaos for months.

[Knorf]

I think it’s still way too close to call, and realistically could easily go either way. Right now in my gut, I’m thinking Kerry’s got it, but I agree that Congress is probably going to stay in Republican hands. And that is just as well. Although I’m royally pissed at Republicans right now (because of Bush), honestly I think it’s better when the president and Congress aren’t controlled by the same party. The branches of government are supposed to in an adversarial relationship. Certainly, Congress is not supposed to be the president’s lap dog. Checks and balances, you know.

[Mal_Adroit]

@John Mace

Has the loser of the presidential debates ever won the election?

I don’t think so. And in the ones where no breakout performance was remembered, the winning of the debate hinged on a gaffe or debilitating zinger:

-Reagan’s “There you go again”
-Ford’s “Eastern Europe is not under Soviet domination”
-Dukakis’s “No I wouldn’t want a man who raped and murdered my wife put to death” (I’m paraphrasing, of course)
-Bush 41’s glance at his watch

We’ve had some zingers over the past couple weeks, but debilitating? Time will tell, true, but my feeling is no. As for gaffes, Kerry’s “global test” could be looked back at as an unfortunate choice of words if he loses. Just as people may remember Dubya’s refusal to name any mistakes he’s made (without turning it into a joke).

So. Barring any verbal snafus tonight, Kerry’s made the best overall debate impression among undecideds so far. But I’m just too superstitious a wuss to make that final prediction, John! Sorry for the slight hijack.

[gobear]

@Debaser

You really think that we’ll see more spending with Bush than with Kerry? Keep in mind, Bush has kept all spending increases way down or even cut them with the notable exceptions of defense and NASA.

“And apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”

Bush took a budget surplus and spent like he was Croesus on a 3-day bender. Accoding the figures from the Office of Management and Budget, FY 2000 showed an overall surplus of $236,445 (in millions of dollars) and has shown a deficit in every year since. No matter how much you might want to support Bush, you can’t pretend that he has been a good financial manager.

Kerry’s claiming he will spend even more on defense and he will certainly be pouring much more money into social programs than Bush would. Unless you think that Kerry will raise taxes enough to cover all this, he will be the president with a higher defecit.

Kerry’s going to have to cope with the deficit that he inherits from Dubya. Barring an economic miracle, I don’t see any way that he won’t have to raise taxes. But put the blame where it belongs, on Dubya and his war.
I predict a Kerry win by a nose.