hmmm. My gut tells me that people who may have entertained a vote for Kerry will end up voting for Bush when they have their booth moment. IOW I think we’ll have more weak Kerrys voting for Bush than vice versa.
Bottom line: Bush in a squeaker, and not as hotly contested as 2000. An electoral but not popular vote win by Bush is a real possibility with Kerry having more popular votes over Bush than Gore did.
There is no way on Og’s green earth that either candidate will win going away. Anyone who thinks so is thinking with their heart instead of their head.
It’s really kind of frightening. The system is so imperfect that there’s something like a 2-3% margin of error automatically. Add the winner-take-all nature of our electoral system, the importance of a statistical coin-toss in the swing states, stir, and you’ve got a recipe for another Y2K balloting clusterfuck, repeated as absurdum so long as the nation is so evenly divided, and our democracy unreformed.
It’s way too close to call. That said…
I’m watching the ebb and flow. If Kerry doesn’t foul up, and what I’ve heard: The dems are doing a DARN good job of registering new voters compared to the pubs, is true, then I’m going to call it for Kerry by a clean but narrow margin. I think the second debate was the fulcrum point.
Senate goes Dem (If you count Jeffords), but by no more than one or two.
House stays republican.
Local balance… ya know, I’m going to say local politics will shift more Democrat, assuming the newly registered voters move en masse to vote.
I say that there are more Republicans, but they were as motivated as they could get last election. The Democrats weren’t, and all they have to do to beat the Republicans is kick it up one notch, as far as butts in the ballot places are concerned. They’re doing it.
Diebold remains a screwed up wild card.
My prediciton: Kerry wins the popular vore by a bigger margin than Gore in 2000. Bush wins electoral by a bigger margin than in 2000. I sure hope I’m wrong.
Guaranteed prediction: Kerry wins tonight’s debate, but the Cable news channels all proclaim Bush as the victor.
According to the Boston Globe here are the non-defense descretionary spending increases in each presidents terms:
Nixon/Ford: 6.8% per year
Carter: 2.0% per year
Reagan: -1.3% per year
Bush 1: 4.0% per year
Clinton: 2.5% per year
Bush Jr: 8.2% per year
I don’t know exactly how much Bush increased NASA’s spending by, but if thats the only thing he’s increased, we should be getting a gov’t subsidised moon buggy in every garage.
Back to the OP, people saying Kerry will win seem to be putting a lot of hope in newly registered voters, does anyone have any actual figures breaking these down by party affiliation or who they intend to vote for
Ah, fuck it, somebody’s gotta be the crazy one:
Kerry by 8 percentage points in the popular vote. Say, 53-45-2. And he gets 290 EV’s.
Senate goes 49 Dems, 50 Repubs, and 1 Jeffords.
I’m going to invert what seems to be the popular wisdom on this board and predict that Bush wins the popular vote, but Kerry very narrowly wins the EC.
My reasoning is that in several states where Bush currently leads, he leads by very large margins. On the other hand, a number of states currently in the Kerry column are only barely so. So it seems to me that if there is a discrepancy between popular vote and electoral vote, it could be in the opposite direction from last time.
Wouldn’t it be funny if Afghanistan’s election went more smoothly than our own?
I found this test you can take to determine which candidate is best for you. Might help in the predictions. 
-XT
I scored a 42% Bush and a 38% Kerry…so I guess neither is right for me. 
-XT
Odd that they ask a bunch of questions that both candidates claim to agree on. Both support No Child Left Behind and oppose immediate troop withdrawls from Iraq for example. How do asking these questions help determine who you should support.
Gods know…I just threw that test in for fun. I don’t usually ascribe much importance to them.
…
To not completely hijack JM’s thread though, I just looked on Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 and they have Kerry 228, Bush 291…which is an increase by Bush from yesterday (I think Bush had like 260 something yesterday and Kerry like 250 something). Wow…whats going on there? Has the site been hacked or something? I can think of no reason for Bush to jump up so much in a single day.
-XT
The popular vote will be a squeaker either way but IMO Bush will get around 390 e. v.
Most of the voting public is aware of all the Bush Blunders. But he does represent leadership far more than Kerry.
If the vice=president of either party became president, IMO Cheney has the experience, the maturity to be president far greater than Edwards.
Many undecided and Kerry people will walk into the Booth on voting day and before they punch the card for President will vote for Bush because he represents strengh far more than Kerry.
Not American, thus not a voter. But yeah, certainly partisan if partisan means “one with enough common sense to realize what an international disaster Bush’s pResidency has been and I shudder to think what a second term would be like.”
Which puts me squarely in the middle of at least 80% of humanity. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that the only two countries in the world where Bush has a chance at winning an election are the US and Israel.
Things that make you go hmmmm…or else, they should
PS-Zapatero voter here.
I’ll go with the same prediction i made in a pre-RNC thread:
Popular Vote 49.5 to 48.5, Kerry wins by 1 point
Electoral Vote 285 for a Kerry win
Additionally, i think Kerry will definitely win the following states: CA OR WA MN MI IL ME VT MA RI CT NY PA NJ MD DE and DC for a total of 238 electoral votes.
Not including OH and FL, Kerry has a decent chance of winning the following: NV NM IA MO WI NH WV and 4 of CO 9 EVs.
If Bush wins both OH and FL, Kerry is going to have a hard time coming up with 270 EVs, but if Kerry wins FL, he’s pretty much a sure-thing.
If it turns out that some analysts (both pro and amateur) are correct, a significant increase in voter turnout will favor Kerry, and he’ll win comfortably, collecting just over 300 EVs.
A new poll switched IA and WI from Kerry to Bush and switched NJ from Kerry to a dead heat. All three polls were from the same group which seems to always favor Bush. WI and IA are believable, but there is something seriously wrong with their methods if they found that NJ is even.
390? 290 I can believe, but 390?
I’m waiting for the results of the Packers-Redskins game. I figure at this point that’ll be as good an indicator as any other.
It was mostly a joke-- I forgot to add the smiley. But I doubt Kerry will get any cooperation from Congress if he wins, and thus will not be able to be a tax and spend Democrat even if he wants to. OTOH, Bush + Republican Congress = too much spending.
I’m actually getting my wife to vote this year, assuming her registration went through and all is well with that; we haven’t heard back yet.
On that purely anecdotal basis, therefore, Kerry wins because of the new voters. I also think the margin will be larger than most people think in the EC at least, since the only really big state (20+ EVs) Bush has locked up is Texas, while Kerry has a lock on California, New York and Illinois. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are all close. I can’t see my way clear to Bush winning Ohio under any circumstances given the jobs situation in that state, regardless of what the polls say. Florida I think will go Bush because, well, he does have his brother down there, you know. Pennsylvania I have no idea about.
As for us here in NJ, it’s not so crazy that NJ would be tied. I was very surprised we went so heavily for Gore the last time, as our governor’s races are usually very close. This one will be close too, and I have no idea who will actually win, even if I succeeded in registering my wife.
Finally, VA may surprise on the Kerry side, and who knows, Edwards may be able to pull NC for him if they can get some real momentum going in these final weeks.
This exactly.
I have been predicting a Bush win, but it is now officially too close to call.
7-5, pick 'em.
Regards,
Shodan
Are you giving odds without picking a favorite? Don’t quite get it.
My Kerry prediction is based on the historical tradition that undecideds break for the challenger. If even now, Kerry wins. Moreover, the polling method of reaching people by land phone line favors more conservative voters, and the high voter turnout traditionally favors Democrats as Republicans traditionally vote no matter what the turnout.