I hope you see the logical fallacy there. You are using the existence of vocal Trump supporters to claim that no Trump supporters are ‘shy’, because all the Trump supporters you’ve heard are vocal about it. But clearly the ones who are vocal about their support of Trump are not who we are talking about, and it would be hard for you to know how many people are NOT vocally supporting Trump, since, you know, they aren’t being vocal about it.
And I’m not making any claims, since I have no idea if they exist, and outside of an election it seems like a difficult task to unearth them. I was simply pointing out that using what happened in an election before cancel culture was a thing does nothing to illuminate the effect of cancel culture today. I would think that would be obvious.
You showed one graph that showed Biden slightly higher in approval today than he was a while ago. During that period he picked a running mate (which usually gives you a bounce), and the Democratic convention and its runup put him in the news daily. You would absoluteky expect him to get a convention bounce as well.
But again, I’m not claiming a damned thing, other than that this election is going to be wild and I have no idea who is going to win. The ‘shy Trump voter’ theory has been floated, along with many other theories on the left and right for what may sway the election. Some of them may have an effect, others may mot.
Anyone who is certain or even highly confident of any election result three months from now, during the most volatile year in my lifetime, is smoking something.
If I had to forecast (not predict), I’d probably give odds that Biden will win. But my confidence interval is so large that I wouldn’t bet much money on that. None of us really kmows what’s gojng to happen, because this is an utterly unique time in history.
You’re positing the existence of a group which is wholly different in behavior than typical Trump supporters, and completely undetectable outside election results. Fine, and I have an invisible pink unicorn in my garage. It would be a logical fallacy to state that it doesn’t exist because you can’t see it.
No, I was just pointing out a logical fallacy in your argument. I made no claim about ‘shy’ voters, and have repeatedly said I have no idea if they exist - and neither do you.
If you can come up with an experiment to test for them, I’m all ears. If not, all we can say about them is ‘We have no idea’.
No one makes any one else vote for someone they don’t want to. At least, people with a shred of personal responsibility aren’t “made to”. And after 8 years of Clinton, and 8 years of Obama, fearing Democrats’ power as though it were some scary unknown thing is beyond silly.
No idea? Sure, I have an idea. My whole damn family, and almost all of their friends, are Trump supporters. In California (not the most liberal parts, but not the most conservative either). And while they have a great variety in personality and support (ranging from extreme MAGA types to “at least he’s not Hillary” types), not one is so “shy” that they’d keep their views hidden in a poll or anywhere else.
Now, anecdotes are not data, but you’re positing a completely unknown form of Trump supporter, one which has not shown up in past elections and which doesn’t fit any existing pattern.
You have provided no evidence for the existence of these types. I’ve provided links to arguments from people who know this stuff a lot better than you do, and they don’t think they exist either. What they do say is that a lot of people think that secret Trump voters exist. But of course they have no evidence either.
To be clear, there is no reason to believe, based on polling, that protests and or riots to date have helped or hurt either candidate. There just isn’t anything in the data to suggest there is a measurable impact at all.
These are the facts no matter how many Sam_Stone (and some other posters) posts across multiple threads take it as a given that these things are helping Trump.
You know what? I hope y’all Trump voters are right. I hope that he won’t make life worse for Americans. I hope that he won’t Institutionalize ways for his side to cheat in every election. I hope that he’ll leave office when the time comes. There’s millions of you, so you COULD be right. I hope you are.
You should point out to your parents that Trump had a republican controlled everything for his first two years in office as well as having a conservative supreme court. Republicans controlled all three branches of government.
Ask your parents why, when the republicans literally could have done anything they wanted to regarding abortion, the republicans did almost nothing.
(Hint: Republicans like keeping it as a wedge issue because they know people like your parents are out there…republicans as a party have zero interest in stopping abortion. Their sole interest is in keeping people like your parents all hot and bothered about it.)