I’ve seen accusations of this from everyone from Fergueson and economic equality protestors to Second Amendment enthusiasts and Gamergate members.
So given a bad act by a controversial group, how likely is it really that act was actually committed by a member of said group, all other things being equal?
I actually agree with RealityChuck, but I have to wonder: how would we ever know? Maybe a bunch of them have occurred and never been detected.
In practice, most of the accusations you hear in this vein are absurd Urban Legends and Conspiracy Fantasies. Big hint: 9-11 and Charlie Hebdo were not false-flag affairs.
I believe in a lot of Conspiracy Theories, but, in re: false flags, I don’t think that they’re needed.
Look at the Russia-Ukraine mess. WTH are we sticking our noses in that? And, it seems that everybody wants us to get over there and give Putin an ass kicking. But, nobody knows why, other than the Administration is talking big, and calling them…well, I don’t know what the admin. is even calling them. But, for no discernible reason, we’ve taken sides with an illegal government, and imposed a ruinous boycott on a nation newly recovering from a horrible economy, and trying to provoke Europe into some sort of belligerencies.
Who needs a false flag?
In re: the OP, there is no way to tell if a false flag is a false flag, or not. Our government released info on Operation Northwoods, a plan for a false flag, but the question is: If it had been enacted, would the report have been published??
So, the common man will never know if there has ever been a false flag. If it works, those in power will be an illegitimate government, and, if it doesn’t, who will want to admit to being a fuckup after committing an atrocity?
If it actually worked, you’d never know about it being a false flag operation. That is the problem. And anyone who believes in one would be ridiculed heavily.
So no idea.
The real question is what false flag operations have happened that failed to be kept secret? The attempt to sink the USS liberty is likely one. Operation northwoods (never went into operation). Operation Gladio. etc.
Here is a list of detected false flag operations.
Also among protesters in the US, various accounts have said that the protesters trying to turn the protest into a violent riot ended up being undercover cops. That is a false flag operation.
Are we counting out standard agent provocateur stuff? In practice, I mostly hear about law enforcement embedding in activist organizations. Often nasty racist ones. Often not.
Otherwise, I think of indecents described in the relevant Wikipedia article: False flag - Wikipedia
I’m not sure what the OP wants to restrict the analysis to.
The WW2 false flag operations worked just fine as flimsy excuses for your own propaganda machine. Nobody with half a brain really believed Poland or Finland just happened to attack their neighbors at a convenient time but they worked just fine as something to drum up and use as a casus belli.
If you actually try to do an operation that has to pass intensive scrutiny that’s a whole another story.
I’ll go with the idea of a perfect crime. At first you might be tempted to say there is no such thing. However by being perfect we will never know. cue evil laugh
If we’re talking specifically about large-scale events then I think that false flag operations are rare. They almost certainly have occurred at some point, but there is a great deal of cost and risk involved in their undertaking, making them unappealing in most circumstances.
However, if we’re talking about small-scale events, then “false flag operations” of a minor sort probably occur frequently. There are instances where some jackass on the Internet has a beef with some group and trolls around pretending to be a member of that group. I’ve seen things posted from self-proclaimed “evolutionists” making outrageous statements in favor of Social Darwinism - which no actual “evolutionist” would confuse with the actual theory of evolution.
There was also the case from Reddit involving the TwoXChromosomes subreddit becoming a default subreddit. Some people were opposed to this because they thought it would lead to an increase in threats and harassment. At least some of these people created new accounts and posted their own threats and harassment specifically to make it look like the increase in such things was greater than it really was, all in an attempt to derail becoming a default subreddit.