This NPR bit quotes some of the experts trying to make the same essential point but generally not being heard:
In a briefing on Tuesday, Dr. Michael Ryan of the World Health Organization warned against reading too much into high fatality rates as the virus spreads to other countries. When asked about Iran, which recently reported an 11-percent mortality rate, Ryan said, “We need to be very careful in the first wave of infections and any newly affected country because we may only be detecting severe cases and the deaths will be over-represented in that.”
[/quote]
The critical piece of information needed for prognosticating, the true infection rate, inclusive of those with mild or no symptoms, is unknown but is certainly bigger than the number of confirmed cases currently identified.
I don’t get why some sampling of the general population of Hubei for HCoV-SARS-2 antibodies and viral antigen has not been done. It wouldn’t take a huge sample size to get some sense if the true rate of infection has been the roughly only 0.1% of the 60,000,000 population of Hubei that reported confirmed cases implies (and which the case fatality rate is based off of), or 2%, or 40%, or more.
For comparison about 14% of the United States population was estimated to be symptomatically ill with influenza in 2017-18 and many more asymptomatically infected. I don’t think that it is at all believable to think that a germ that had been in circulation in the area for two months before any control measures were put in place and is more contagious than influenza, with no vaccine, in comparison only infected 0.1% of the population and virtually no children.
I wonder whether prior exposure to other corona viruses might be relevant. Although they would not be specific to SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing the new Corvid-19 disease), antibodies (and ‘immune memory’) against other corona virus strains might confer some protection.
Interestingly, for SARS, healthcare workers who were exposed (or presumably exposed) to it, did not generally seroconvert. On the one hand, that’s reassuring, i.e. maybe the bug was not as contagious as feared or perhaps prior anti corona virus antibodies had cleared the new SARS virus and protected the individual. On the other hand, maybe it means that those who seroconvert are the ones who are more likely to get clinical disease, i.e. clinical disease could be due to the immune response.
Millions of people (like myself) get the flu shot every year because we are afraid of the flu.
There is no vaccine for COVID-19. There is no treatment for it. It appears to be super contagious. It has shut down cities.
I’m not saying that a lot of people aren’t being needlessly doomsaying, but I’m tired of folks belittling concerns by drawing comparisons to the flu. The flu is a known entity. This COVID-19 thing is not. That alone warrants extra caution.
I think some Dopers are just trying to assuage fears a little, because the media has gone all out on this. e.g. The concept that COVID is at least 20 times more deadly than seasonal flu has been repeated as simple fact in many places.
In the US, and US-oriented online channels, even channels that I previously considered reliable are just giving the worst case with no context or nuance.
And, like I say, UK media is far worse even than this; e.g. a story claiming COVID’s mortality rate is comparable to 1918 Influenza.
So I think some people here are just trying to bring balance to the force.
But I would that agree anyone saying Nothing to see here folks is clearly wrong.
I am also baffled by how the combined efforts of the entire world’s epidemiological experts can’t “find a denominator” to calculate a good estimate of the death rate in any population. And in a similar vein, I am baffled by the shortage of test kits, and their unreliability, given how billions of dollars are being thrown at this particular virus. Now that it has been reported in dogs, I suspect it has been spreading via animals all along, so the quarantines weren’t really trapping it. So on the bright side, I am optimistic the denominators of the rates in various populations actually should be much larger, and thus the death rate a lot smaller than the doom and gloomers fear. One thing I think we can be sure is NOT happening: people are not collapsing all over the streets in the countries it is newly popping up in, like some reports said was happening in Wuhan not too long ago. So either those reports were hoaxes, or the virus has already mutated to be LESS serious, or there was something else going on. In two threads in General Questions, I argued China has a concurrent epidemic of “vape lung”:
Wikipedia says a vape lung epidemic is almost exclusively happening in the USA, but given that the vape hardware and dangerous vape additives are made in China:
I think people had/have vape lung in China too. So I hope the world doesn’t have a monster virus, but instead what we saw was a typical coronavirus hit people with the new “vape lung” condition during flu season, making Chinese doctors search for the cause of an upspike in pneumonia, and they just singled out a not so harmful virus. SInce the current narrative is that we are all doomed, I have nothing to lose by hoping my guess is true, and the added optimism will boost my immune system, and then if it really is a monster virus, I have a better chance of surviving.
Having extra water is always wise, imo. I normally have 2-3 weeks worth stored. I’m just curious why people are buying water now. What about this virus threatens the water supply? Are they worried about the supply chain failing to provide some chemical necessary to sanitizing the city supply? Or is it a larger concern about quarantines keeping city workers away from the “pumps” (so to speak)?
Like you, I’ve been through days when the supply was off due to failures, so I keep a lot of it stored. Also keep it around (along with lots of other stuff) in case of large scale power outages. It’s my understanding that the average “water tower” has about 8-12 hours of water stored, and would be empty after that with no power available to pump more up there.
FWIW: Just got back from the weekly grocery run at Walmart. Plenty of bottled water, although the shelves were less full than normal. But the shelves of sanitizing wipes were completely empty. Nothing but bare metal.
Eric Linton of the NY Times is reporting that shipments into the port of Los Angeles has dropped 25% in February:
“Port of Los Angeles is projecting a 25% drop in container volumes this month, as the economic impact of the coronavirus spreads across shipping operations and foreign supply chain. Imagine if 1 in 4 goods imported from Asia suddenly stopped coming. Impact just starting.”
I am seeing somewhat contradictory information. Variable death rates, variable hospitalization rates- I guess we can’t know those things for sure right now…?
But my question is: how much worse are the symptoms of COVID-19 compared to the usual flu? I get it, maybe half, maybe a larger proportion of people who catch this get nuisance-level symptoms and then that is it. And some percentage of people (prob less than 3%, maybe (?) less than 2%) die, so for them the symptoms obviously could not be worse. But for the 15-25%(?) of people who get quite sick, how sick are we talking? The flu can be pretty bad IMHO, with vomiting, diarrhea, fever, but it is only really bad (IME) for a day, and kind of bad for maybe a couple more days.
What is coronavirus sickness really like, compared to the flu?
I am not reading anyone, myself included, arguing that extra caution is not warranted, or even that the attempt to keep it from spreading far and wide, or to at least delay such, was not worth the while.
But the comparisons to influenza are worth making PRECISELY because influenza is a known entity. We know that our systems can handle a 2017-18 level influenza season (14% of the U.S. population symptomatically ill and 61,000 deaths) without becoming overwhelmed. We know that when H1N1 first emerged initial confirmed cases numbers underestimated true infection rates by two to three orders of magnitude.
I’ve seen Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, and New York City listed before but I don’t know what the sixth is. In any case the plan is to expand to all of the influenza surveillance sites network testing all samples submitted to the network.
My not so wild-assed guess is that within a week or two of surveillance level it will be determined that there are in fact already likely many thousands of cases of COVID-19 somewhat broadly distributed in the United States, most with fairly mild illness. The initial reaction in the media (both mainstream and social) will predictably be: “End times are upon us!” It will take another few weeks until the realization of what that means the true infection mortality rate is closer to emerges to the general public. (Hint - substantially lower than the numbers cited primarily restricting testing and identification to those who have severe pneumonia.)
While it is being developed for surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the U.S. population, odds are it will also be applied in Hubei.
Anyone want to place their bets as to which of the following it more likely results in?
The lock-down of Hubei, beginning 2 months after this highly contagious virus began to circulate, a virus which causes relatively mild symptoms minimally over 80% of the time, managed to keep the infection rate in Hubei down to a mere 0.1% of the population (compared to symptomatic flu spread in a bad flu season in fairly highly vaccinated American population of 14%). Therefore the case fatality rates of 1 to 2% are accurate reflections of infection mortality rates.
The lock-down was either too late or otherwise unable to very effectively prevent the spread and the true infection rate with HCoV-SARS-2 in Hubei was something like seasonal flu was in America in that 2017-18 year, in a range closer to 14% of the population. In such a case the true infection fatality rate is more like 0.03%.
Or pick any other option, in between or other.
I’m guessing based on the excess mortality number that the lock-down did some good and that maybe 5 to 10% of the population was infected - ending up with a true infection mortality rate somewhat lower than seasonal influenza’s. But we could potentially have a higher percent of the population infected than they did, maybe more like 20%, so excess mortality rate on par with having an extra influenza season (which is bad).
I don’t know that. But Hubei’s having an infection rate of only 0.1% is very much not believable.
what you are describing sounds like norovirus, not influenza. Norovirus is sometimes called “stomach flu” for reasons that are obscure to me, but it’s not particularly like the flu. The flu features respiratory congestion, a fever, muscle aches everywhere, a general feeling of malaise, and sometimes other symptoms. And the primary “really bad” part of the illness typically lasts a few days to a week, with another week or more of convalescence.
I gather COVID is kinda like influenza if you get a serious case, although the symptoms sound rather variable. It usually includes a dry cough, they say, and fever. Sometimes there are intestinal symptoms, but not routinely.
Anyway, to answer the OP, before today my “doomsday prep” included two 5 gallon jugs of water and a stash of preserved camping food. Today I have added about $75 worth of canned food.
The clincher for me was hearing reports from people I know in the county government that they are being told to prepare for 2 week school closures, to press elevator buttons with their elbows and that sort of thing. There are no reported cases around here yet but I am expecting a quarantine at some point and am content to just ride it out at home.
So factor that order of magnitude falsification of the death number possibility in with an infection incidence of 14%… infection mortality rate of 0.3%. Worse than the rate of influenza’s symptomatic case fatality rate of 0.1% but even then within the same magnitude.
Feel free to choose that, in any combination with the other options, as your most likely end of day actual facts.
In terms of prepping? Anyone who lives alone is always well advised to have enough at home that they can be sick for a week or two without having to go out or depend on others to bring them supplies.
We keep a several week supply of food, water, and critical medications on hand for earthquakes or other natural disasters in our region. It means we have much of what we need and aren’t out clogging the roads, engaging in panic purchasing, or trapped at home with urgent needs for these items. We also have some firewood, matches, lots of blankets, and a certain amount of single malt with which to welcome our zombie overlords.
We took this virus as an opportunity to update our supply lists, rotate food nearing expiration, restock our cleaning supplies, and lay in more cat food. Yes, I put some hand and surface wipes in the cars. No, my behavior in the community and upon returning home is no different than in bad flu seasons or when I’ve worked in hospitals–I take off my shoes in the garage and spray the soles with Lysol, dump my clothes directly into the washer, and shower before dressing in comfy sweats. I’m in a higher risk population, so I try to be more careful about contagion anyway.
Am I writing up a telehealth HIPAA agreement for my clients? Yes. Will I teach online if necessary? Sure, if it seems warranted (e.g., cases in my county, cases on my campus). So not worried, but not under-prepared.