The poster who I was responding to seemed to be doing just that. Otherwise I wouldn’t have posted what I did.
I live in the Seattle area and my extrapolation begins with the data I have:
1 - Six confirmed cases
2 - At the care facility where two cases came from:
2.1 - Approx 30 patients and approx 30 staff with similar symptoms but not confirmed (according to CDC)
2.2 - Addendum to 2.1 - on the other hand, there has been a short lived bug going around within last few weeks with flu-like symptoms, but it appears to not be respiratory and seems to only last about 2 days - I know many people that got it and then were fine - so maybe the 30+30 is just that
3 - Even when a case is confirmed, like at a hospital, the steps to avoid further exposure from staff are not always taken immediately or properly (there is some private info behind this one)
Extrapolation process:
The people these people caught from were obviously infected but not necessarily identified
Every day each person comes in contact with many
Transmission is possible before and after symptoms (according to the science sources I’ve read)
Final answer:
A lot of people already have it
If I were in Vegas, I would bet around 5,000 in Western Wa
On a scale of 1 to 10
Fear of panic wiping out grocery stores and my job (waiting tables being compromised by people stopping going out to eat?
4 on panic 2.5 on job (??)
End of the world? .01
If it were nutso contagious (I haven’t had a cold or the flu in over five years, maybe much longer) and nutso easy to get it over and over?..that would be bad.
Regardless, on Tuesday I’ll be stocking up for a month worth of food and looking into stocks to get that would go up (a few pharm stocks?) rather then down (which are most)
The flu DOES get a lot of attention. Every year people are exhorted to get vaccinated, wash their hands, cover their coughs and sneezes, and stay home if they’re sick. The also infects a LOT more people than covid has at this point.
Covid is new. We don’t know for sure how risky/deadly it is. We aren’t entirely sure of anything about it. That’s part of why it’s getting so much attention, it’s new.
Unless you test absolutely everyone in an area it is very, very easy to miss the very mild or asymptomatic cases of a disease like this. And if your medical people are overwhelmed by a couple thousand people in ICU over and above the normal levels they aren’t going to have time to go out and test an entire city, they’ll be too busy taking care of seriously ill people.
The specific test for this virus didn’t even exist back in December - it takes time to manufacture these things and currently demand outstrips both supply and manufacturing capacity. Throwing more money will only speed things up so far and no more. Also, some of that money is going to treat people who are seriously ill at the moment.
It has been reported ONE dog. Not “dogs”. ONE dog. Which was with its sick master and might have licked up various virus-laden secretions because dogs do things like that. It’s currently in quarantine while experts study the situation to see if they dog was infected, a carrier, or even able to be affected vs. licking up something oogy and mucusy from its human.
That doesn’t explain non-smokers/non-vapers who have been made seriously ill by this virus.
No reliable, medically educated source is saying that. They are, in fact, emphasizing that 80% or more of people will have either mild or no symptoms. Spend less time on Facebook and you’ll hear less doom-crying
The US government is saying “have enough food and water for two weeks”. I, too, presume the water works will stay working but I think some people are searching so frantically for something TO DO that they latch onto that and go “oh, we have to get water along with the canned pork and beans”.
We sold out of hand-sanitizer again, and again someone found more in the back. Or we got another truck in. Lots of wipes going out the door, too.
Again - I think a lot of people are nervous and want to DO SOMETHING. If buying cans of food, more toilet paper, and wipes makes them feel better well, there are far worse they could be doing.
What if it is?
I would think that the Pope would be tested for this, between being ill, elderly, in Italy, and, well, being the Pope.
I’m skeptical that we’d ever be told that the Pope tested positive for it. Because I agree with Snowboarder Bo that a lot of people will lose their heads if he’s infected. Especially if he falls seriously ill.
I get how you read it that way. I read it as less a “belittling” concern, as questioning the level of fear that some have been expressing. But I could have misread!
The Pope is what, 83? That’s in the age range to go to bed apparently healthy and simply not wake up the next day even without new viruses in the neighborhood.
But then, the Pope isn’t particularly special to me so I probably don’t get the emotional impact here.
IMHO…you lose utilities and you are WAY beyond trying to get groceries for a month. Thats first few chapters of The Stand level.
That said…supposedly the water in your toilet tank is drinkable in an emergency. Guess you could boil it assuming your gas/electricity isnt gone.
If you are trying to determine if the true rate of infection is on the scale of 40% vs 10% vs 2% vs 0.1% it is not so hard to test a representative sample and determine within some reasonable confidence bounds a top and lower limit. Hell just confirming which order of magnitude we are looking at would be huge. Test a representative sample of a thousand and find only one or two and the hypothesis that the true rate is 40% or 10% is falsified. 2% becomes unlikely. Find three hundred with mild or no symptoms and the 0.1% infection rate is pretty much falsified. And even 2% is pretty unlikely.
Doesn’t this assume that virus is no longer spreading (or entering the population)? I think you may need to wait a while to do this, maybe months.
I bow to the man with greater knowledge of statistics than I posses… 
He isn’t special to me. But if he dies from COVID-19, Imma have a hard time surpressing the thought “The shit is getting real now.”
Celebrity deaths, regardless of age, tend to have that kind of effect on people.
Prior to moving to my current residence I lived without utilities for three weeks. Which had a LOT to do with the reason I changed residences. Anyhow - it’s doable… but at the time I wasn’t in quarantine or under what amounts to house arrest. Much less ill.
I might save the water in the tank for washing purposes, for which it doesn’t have to be quite so pure, and save my jug of potable water for drinking. But in a real, life-or-death emergency the toilet tank water yes, is drinkable.
My wife and in-laws are really starting to piss me off now because they are in full-blown irrational panic mode. They believe every stupid conspiracy theory their friends forward them on Weibo and WeChat. My MIL in particular has been crying off-and-on since Thursday. I won’t run down all the CTs, but the last they told me was that there are actually 18,000 deaths in the U.S. that the government is covering up to make China look bad.
We have a huge pile of crap in our living room now, and they buy more every day. A couple of months worth of stuff easy, and they seem to be expecting total societal collapse. We have 14 5-lb. bags of flour and I asked what the hell are we going to do with all that, and they said it’s for trading. Oh yeah, another CT they mentioned is that the CDC was supposed to make an announcement over the weekend, and after that all of the supermarkets will be cleared bare by Monday and you won’t be able to buy anything.
Holy shit JJ…I’m so sorry. Sounds like some kind of talk is required
“We’re all agreed that there will be no killing the pets or suicide pacts, right???”
In terms of saying what it is now, with the current number of fatalities, and therefore what the current infection fatality rate is (within some broad bounds) no. Yes it can change, but then the death rate would change too (lagging a few weeks of course).
The issue would be that the serology test is apparently still under development, so you would right now only find those with active infection and not those who have had infection but recovered. Like that German airplane that found 2% asymptomatically infected cannot say how many (if any) had been infected but were no longer shedding the virus.
I made the call.
Statement released an hour ago by San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg:
CDC released a patient before all the tests came back and now they grabbed (him?) and put him back into quarantine, saying the last result was ‘weakly positive’.