Facebook seems to be down for me. I tried it in two browsers.
I suspect Facebook is getting overloaded from corona-panic.
He’s going to say the dead person is just faking it.
Trump seems to be sedated. He is talking very slowly. Maybe he has coronavirus?
I was never worried about it. I refuse to be worried about it. Yesterday I found out that it was discovered decades ago, thus proving there’s hardly any reason to worry about it.
Trump in this briefing seems more tired and haggard than I have ever seen him in anything. I think he’s probably stressed as hell by this situation. If his goal was to project an image of confidence and authority to the country, he failed.
During the 2017/18 flu season 80,000 people, (yes that is EIGHTY THOUSAND people) died from the Flu in the United States alone. Yet the media never made a big deal of it. Can you imagine what the media reports would be like if we even approached those numbers this year? Is there any health official saying that the Coronavirus is more contagious or kills at a higher rate than the Common Flu?
It’s looking like it will be comparable to the flu, so, maybe double that?
Yes, many health officials are saying both of those things.
Flu death rate = 0.1%.
Coronavirus 0.4% - 2.9%, depending on the province.
COVID-19 appears to be much more contagious than the flu.
2017-18 (61K per the CDC, not 80K) was a particularly bad year, top of the range since 2010: 12K to 61K, typical year in the 30 to 40K range.
The rate it kills at is, to be the broken record, still unknown as estimates of the numbers infected but not seriously ill and thereby not identified range from near zero (which is what using current confirmed case fatality rates as an accurate basis implicitly assumes) to two to three order of magnitude more than the current confirmed infection rate (which is based on experience with the difference between initial confirmed case numbers of H1N1 in 2008-9 and later estimates after the fact). If the number is 2%, then the infection fatality rate is comparable to typical seasonal influenza. If much higher it is much lower. Current excess mortality rate in Hubei is far lower than influenza rates.
Question. How many cases of infection are there in the United States?
Do you use the number of lab confirmed cases as an accurate assessment of the number of true infections in the country right now? Or do you assume that scattered confirmed cases showing up in a variety of communities implies some multiple thousands of cases not labelled, manifesting with mild diseases or without symptoms at all, many resolving without ever coming to anyone’s attention but having passed it on to, on average two or more people?
He’s probably terribly jet-lagged (remember, he was in India just a few days ago) and that’s most likely why. Not defending him in any way, of course.
BTW, I heard a Coronavirus joke earlier.
You probably won’t get it, however.
Meanwhile, the Diamond Princess death toll is up to 7; average age of the victims is around 80 years old.
I think you need to sound like a broken record. Even today, there are posters jumping in to these threads with comments like " Yesterday I found out that it was discovered decades ago, thus proving there’s hardly any reason to worry about it."
To me, the smattering of positives tests are very random. That leads me to believe that there are going to be tens of thousands of cases. I could be wrong.
Initially, in mid to late January, the CDC was reluctant to test. I think anyone that has a fever of unknown origin and a negative flu swab likely meets criteria now.
I would bet a lot of money that trumpy was kept on the DC timezone the entire time. You don’t get jet lagged if you have a private jet, and all your meetings are in your home time zone…
It ain’t like he flew in the back of the bus, had to deal with public transport, stay in a hostel, eat the local food or anything that might be part of jet lag.
Uh… yeah.
Entities like the World Health Organization and the CDC and various other groups with real doctors and public health experts have been saying, based on current data, this thing is as infectious as regular flu, can be spread by people with no symptoms, and has a fatality rate of 1-3% (depending on locality and how strained local resources are) compared to the usual flu fatality rate of 0.1% In other words, an order of magnitude more likely to kill someone.
That’s not a zombie apocalypse level, no, but it really is more serious than ordinary flu. If it hasn’t killed tens of thousands of people it’s because it hasn’t infected enough people (yet) to rack up that level of death.
So… if a hundred people have covid-19 then expect 1-3 deaths. Compared to flu where, with those numbers, no one might die.
If a thousand get sick with covid expect 10-30 deaths. Compared to flu with 1 expected death.
If ten thousand get sick with covid expect 100-300 deaths. Compared to flu with 10 expected deaths.
If a hundred thousand get sick with covid expect 1000-3000 deaths (which is actually in line with current numbers). Compared to flu with an expected 100 deaths.
If one million get sick with covid expect 10,000-30,000 dead. Compared to flu, with 1,000.
If ten million get sick with covid expect … well, you get the idea by now.
If flu killed 80,000 people in one year it’s because hundreds of millions caught the flu. And if comparable number of people caught covid the expected death toll, based on current data, would be between 800,000 and 2.4 million people.
Again, not zombie apocalypse level but still very, very serious.
All the cites I’ve seen emphasize that the numbers for COVID are tentative and likely to be an overestimate.
The most recent data from the CCDC, based on 72,324 patients, suggests a fatality rate of 2.9% in Hubei and just 0.4% elsewhere. Yes, that’s the Chinese authority, so pinch of salt, but this is the biggest data set we have and I think it would be bad faith to just ignore this data and choose to instead interpret the worst numbers in the worst way.
It’s one thing to say it may well have a higher fatality rate than flu. It’s another to declare it as fact, even underlining it.
And this explains why such numbers might be off.
I’m guessing it’s already widespread in the US, for those reasons. I’m also guessing the Chinese numbers understate the denominator, and the mortality is closer to seasonal flu than the official stats. But yes, it could be an order of magnitude worse than the flu. And, of course, we don’t have a vaccine. And it’s not obvious to me that we will get a strong protective vaccine.
I don’t fully understand why there is so much fear regarding the coronavirus, the flu kills about 50,000 people every year so shouldn’t that get more attention…?