How dangerous would a trip to Israel be now?

Factual Questions
1

My sister just got home from work excited about some woman who is willing to fund a trip to Israel for her ;j . Apparently, this woman is married to a rich guy who feels that every Jewish adolescent should visit Israel at some point. :rolleyes:

I’d like to have a talk with this woman and find out the whole deal here. According to my sister, plane fare, lodging, and food are all completely accounted for.

Naturally my parents freaked at the thought. But (assuming this woman is legit) how dangerous would a visit to Israel be right now? Is there anyway to calculate the odds on getting killed or injured in a terrorist attack during any given 10 day period in Israel right now?

2

I would say terrorism is the least of your worries. When the war in Iraq starts later this month, Saddam is going to launch his Scuds at Israel with all sorts of nasties on board. I would pass on the offer.

3

What makes you think a war is definately going to start later this month and what makes you think an attack from us would prompt Saddam to launch ‘nasties’ at Israel?
Moe:

That area is of course extremely rich in history. Judaism, in my experience, is about tradition and history more than anything else. I think most jews would want to visit Israel at some point. Every jew I’ve ever known has either been there or wants to go. I’m not religious at all and I’d like to go. I don’t see why this deserves a rolleyes.

4

All things being equal, it’s better than being in Philadelphia.

5

The deal is legit.

See Birthright Israel

6

Now that’s just low. Philly is a wonderful place. From it’s Friendly people… err, Clean air…ummm…

Nevermind
:wink:

7

A free trip to Israel for Jewish youths is hardly unheard of! Search the Net, or check your local synagogue(s), you will be provided a wealth of info.
I myself am considering going with the Oranim travel group this summer, if I can get my hubby to agree (he is Eastern Orthodox)
I’m keeping my fingers crossed!

8

Odds? Calculating “odds” for terrorism is not very useful, as they are fairly low compared to accidental deaths such as car crashes and natural disasters. But if you’re really that concerned, I suppose it could be calculated.

Assumptions:

  1. Terrorist attack rates have been fairly consistent since the beginning of the current intifada in September 2000 (not necessarily true - excepting today’s major atrocity, and several other smaller attacks, terrorists attacks have occurred with significantly less frequency over the past few months).
  2. Tourists do not add significantly to the population of Israel (the effect of tourists on population is hard to calculate, since you need to know how many tourists there are on average at any given time in Israel - this problem is mitigated in any case because the numbers of dead tourists since the beginning of the intifiada is not counted either - I’ll make up for this in assumption 3).
  3. Tourist death percentages are comparable to Israeli death percentages (not entirely true, since Israeli death figures include the military).

Alright, so the intifada began on approximately September 28, 2000. That’s 829 days ago. For a ten-day trip, the probability of randomly picking a date for a terrorist attack, with the limitation that it must be during the intifada, is 10/829. Overall, there have been 714 Israeli deaths within the context of the intifada (the report “An Engineered Tragedy” from the Israeli Institute for Counter-Terrorism divides the numbers up into combatants and non-combatants, but their site is currently down). The population of Israel, according to the CIA World Factbook, is 6,029,529. So the probability that a given Israeli is a victim of Palestinian terrorism or military attack is 714/6,029,529. Ordinarily, this figure would be multiplied by 1, since there is more or less a hundred percent chance of a particular Israeli being in Israel on a randomly picked date since September 28, 2000. However, since your sister will only be in Israel 10 days, we must multiply it by the probability that a randomly picked date during the intifada would fall during a given ten-day period. Thus the probablity is (10 * 714) / (829 * 6,029,529), or 1.43 * 10^(-6), or 1.43 * 10^(-4) %. In other words, pretty damn small. That of course doesn’t alleviate the problem or the fear involved, as it is the randomness of terrorist attacks which is what scares. Hell, the probability of an average New Yorker being killed in the attacks on the WTC on September 11 is pretty damn small too. So if you ask me, it’s more of an intellectual exercise than anything else, but YMMV.

9

The State Department speaks. Your Tax Dollars At Work. :smiley:

BTW, how old is your sister? “Adolescent”?

http://travel.state.gov/israel_westbank_gaza.html

I would say that as long as she’s with a legitimate, major, organized tour group, she’d be pretty safe, but if she’s just going to go on this guy’s ticket and do it “her way”, that’s probably not a good idea. There are just so many restrictions, and so many cultural complexities, and so many Bad Places For Americans to go. If she were my daughter, and she wasn’t going with a big tour group, I’d say ix-nay.

10

And I’d say exactly the opposite, DDG. I travelled all round Israel and the West Bank independantly with no problems whatever. OK, I’m Australian not American, but I dress and look about the same from shooting or bombing distance.

Independant travellers are unlikely to be a target. A busload of American tourists might well be just the type of thing that might attract a bomb or a hijacking. Name me the last time you heard of terrorists bombing one person, or hijacking one car?

Of course, I wouldn’t recommend a female going it alone, certainly not in the West Bank. She would need a father or brother or husband figure to make sure she is not the subject of the usual hassling lone females tend to get in Islamic countries.

11

Right, from the OP it sounded like this guy was just going to pay for her ticket and off she’d go, by herself. Which I wouldn’t advise, 'specially for a Late Teen.

yes i know i’m an overprotective mom

12

OK, maybe not. On the whole it just seemed kinda sketchy; a guy who is willing to pay for trips for strangers in the name of promoting Jewish tradition. I mean, now that I know it’s actually well-established organizations, and not just “some guy”, I’m seriously considering it myself as I’ve always wanted to visit Israel. But just to play devil’s advocate for a moment, Israel is only half a century old; how much Jewish tradition is really there? Actually, consider that more of a GQ from someone ignorant and genuinely looking for an answer, since I really do not know.

Thanks Fang, though you’re right; this intellectual excersize would hardly be enough to pacify my parents into letting my younger sister go. It does make me feel a helluva lot better about it though. Fortunately, I’m older and can make the decision for myself. Unfortunately, at 27 it seems I just missed the age bracket. :frowning:

13

And, um, Princhester, I’d bet that the minute you open your mouth in possibly tense situations, your Strine gets you an automatic “oh–he’s not American after all” pass. :wink:

14

Well, Moe, the point is not that there are “X” number of years of tradition to admire–the point is that Israel is there at all.

15

I came back from Israel on Thursday. We went on the 22nd of December. I was staying north of Tel Aviv, with family, in a city called Ra’anana, for a family event.

I have been before (around 6 or 7 times), but I hadn’t been for 6 years. The difference was striking in some respects – more metal detectors and security guards, the Old City of Jerusalem was totally dead and our driver didn’t want us hanging around there, also there was a ton of high-tech business around Herziliya and Ra’anana that wasn’t there before. But all in all, we never felt in danger.

The war on Iraq is a total wild card. If you think there will be war, then don’t go. No one can predict it, but I think until the inspectors find something, the Security Council discusses it (at least for a day or two), the US consults allies, and a little more hand-wringing, there won’t be a US attack. At least IMHO. So you may get warning.

We visited Jerusalem, Tzfat, Eilat (and Taba, Egypt for diving), Jaffa and Tel Aviv, Herziliya, Kfar Saba, and of course Ra’anana. We rented a car and drove between the points. We did not feel in danger at any point. The tourist market is really down right now and if you pick and choose, there are deals to be had, especially in the hotels in Eilat.

My suggestions:

  1. As Alessan pointed out in a few words, terrorism risks are always present but can be minimized as much as random violent crime can be minimized in somewhere like Philadelphia.
  2. I personally would not feel in danger anywhere inside of the Green Line (pre-1967 border), except I would stay out of Israeli Arab villages unless with a guard. The same applies to the Old City of Jerusalem. This is probably superstition but it goes in the “minimizing your risk” category. Anyway, any reasonably organized tour group with a guide will also have a guard.
  3. Along these lines, if driving, I would take the main highways which don’t pass through the West Bank. This is a safety concern as well as a roadblock convenience.
  4. These trips which you describe are quite common. I have had many friends who have gone on them. Be warned – many of them come back religious after one too many Shabbos dinners at the Ascent Institute in Tzfat or Aish Ha’Torah in Jerusalem. Another fair percentage don’t return from Israel after falling in love with kibbutz life or whatnot. I know a good number of women who have gone and ended up married to a nice Israeli boy on Ma’agan Micha’el or another kibbutz.
  5. All in all, it is kind of pissy time to visit. Some of the best things I’ve seen in Israel are just not there or are off-limits right now. The Arab souqs in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are dead. The toursit market is totally dead, including most of the souvenier shops – my wife had a difficult time finding things like the previously ubiquitous Hebrew Coca Cola and Macabee Beer shirts. I don’t know how safe it is to go visit with Bedouins. The Church of the Holy Sepulchre is in a seriously cagey neighborhood (Christian Quarter of the Old City) and Manger Square is totally inaccessibile without Kevlar. There are some really nice hikes in the West Bank which are out, although the awesome hikes in the Golan are probably still OK.

My uncle from South Africa met us in Israel for the first time. He was mainly there for the family thing, and he really planned his trip around getting there and getting back without dally. He was quite disappointed – he (as we) never felt in danger and wanted to go see more. But, he did not get to see the Old City beyond the Kotel (Western Wall), he didn’t see much of Jerusalem, etc. etc.

oh, and 6) If diving, use Aqua-Sport in Eilat and go on the Taba Dive Boat. Ask to go to Coral Island. It was totally fantastic, and not that expensive (about $100 for full gear, 2 guided dives, lunch and drinks provided).

16

Oh, and 7) We stayed off of the buses, which added quite a considerable amount to our trip (the rental car was $36 a day and was the majority of our expense over the 6 days that we rented it). The Egged line is fantastic and cheap and it is a pity we didn’t get to use it. There is a new train line which I would not hesitate to use. It runs between Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem, although I think the schedule is optimized for businesspeople.

17

Strine? Strine? I’m sophisticated, me! I do not speak strine I’ll have you know. Harumph!

Actually, in all seriousness, many people who do not speak English as a first language (such a native Israelis or Palestinians) do not usually find it too easy to tell an Australian accent from an American one. And if they do pick that one is not an American, their next guess tends to be English, not Australian.

But in my experience, the locals do usually guess that I’m not American. But not by accent. They guess precisely because I am independant traveller and Americans don’t tend to do that so much. In other words, the OP’s sister is less likely to be taken to be American precisely if she is not with a big tour group.

18

Moe

That’s a very sad viewpoint! Some people are interested in more than just accumulating more wealth. The Birthright Israel program is a fabulous idea (started, if memory serves, by the Bronfman and Steinhart families) that has already spent more than $200 million to bring young adults to Israel to learn, make friends, experience a fantastic environment and hopefully take back with them an increased sense of identity (do a google to overcome the idea that it’s “sketchy”). What do the donors get back for it? Nothing but a sense of putting their money to good use!

As for the security - I sat on Saturday evening eating in a leading Jerusalem mall, surrounded by hundreds of visitors on the program all having a great time. Entrance to the building is tightly controlled, but once you’re in, life is completely normal.

Security in Israel is excellent, and you’ve got to be exceptionally unlucky to be a victim, but that goes for any circumstances where random events occur. Are you going to tell your sister never to walk in the street because people are killed in traffic accidents every day?

Take it from me, your sister will be much the poorer for not taking the offer up.

19

Moe:

The STATE of Israel is only a century old. Jewish/Hebrew history in the area goes back at least 3000 years according to even secular sources, and according to Biblical sources, more than 4000 (with Abraham’s settlement in the area). As such, there is more Jewish tradition there than anywhere else in the world!

What, you thought the Jews decided just randomly that of all the patches of land in the world the one they’d most like to make their own country in was a desert containing angry Arabs?

20

Is it safe to assume that tour groups avoid high risk areas? I imagine so, but wouldn’t want to take anything for granted.

This is perhaps the most important point. As much as a free trip to Israel just sounds like another opportunity to waste another opportunity for life experience (we’ve both done much less traveling than we’d like to admit), I feel more apprehension than excitement about it. Right now it just seems like a terribly ugly place in my mind; images of it on the news bring me to tears almost daily.

Have these tours (fully funded) been going on for years, even during the (relatively) less turbulent times? or are they a recent attempt to boost tourism and awareness in light of the events of the last couple years?

ramp, I think you misunderstood. I’m very relieved to realize this is commonplace, and not “sketchy”. It is indeed a fabulous idea, and the people who make the donations are indeed very special.
It’s just that, not knowing anything at all about the program including it’s very existance, and having only my… uum… shall we say * youthfully openminded* sister’s account of a woman (a customer of the shoestore my sister works at) claiming that her husband would be glad to send her on an all expenses paid trip to one of the most turbulent places in the world right now, I chose to err on the side of skepticism.

Well, I did get that idea from a particular older Onion article
(apparently not available online) but I did have my suspicions that it may have been facetious. :slight_smile:

oh and DDG, she’s 23 (and a young 23 at that).