Cite, please? FWIU, the South Korean military and society both are quite different than what the North Korean officers would be familiar with. There’s no way they could function, let alone excel, in the South Korean military without first receiving plenty of training in just the basics of living in the South.
What about a whole crapload of CRAM systems (“Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar”)? Specifically something like Centurion [Warning: .pdf, and this is an advertisement, not independent analysis], which supposedly fires rounds that self-destruct before falling back to earth to minimize “collateral damage?”
Years ago, Tom Clancy was asked about the possibility someone might be able to smuggle a nuke into the US. Going from memory, his reply was a sardonic, “Sure. All they’d have to do is put it into a big crate and stamp it COCAINE.”
The phones could have an embedded solar charger. In the past the equipment was too big to hide and the govt could limit electricity. But now the devices can be hidden anywhere and be recharged with the sun.
It occurs to me - that I would much rather have this guy making noise than being quiet - its when NK goes ‘dark’ for awhile after these sanctions that we have to actually worry - as long as he’s making noise, they are empty threats, hoping to get attention and extort money on the off chance he actually ‘means it’ this time.
Wouldn’t that effectively start World War III though?
I’ve got more to say on this topic, but I’ll do it some other time.
One bit of reality here.
Cell phones, DVDs and other materials smuggled in from China is already quite common, especially along the borders. South Korea soap operas are quite popular. An informal market economy has been slowly forming, with some trade openly practiced.
It’s still a bad place, but NK of 2013 is not exactly the sales as NK of 1995.
A few possible things come to mind:
- It’d start a war.
- I don’t know if anyone knows enough about what goes on inside North Korea to pinpoint where they are at any particular moment.
- Does it improve anything? It’s not as if Kim Jong-Un came up with this nuclear program himself. What happens if you kill the guy? Either a relative or some top general takes over. Are they deterred from developing weapons or encouraged to negotiate? I don’t see it. Since killing the guy would be an act of war and would almost certainly lead to South Korea or someone else getting attacked, I don’t see how it’s an improvement over what’s going on now.
I dunno, perhaps they are given some kind of honorary commission and a salary to live on, but SK would be insane to put them in actual command of any significant military forces. The North has been sending in infiltrators for decades, and the South cannot afford to have chunks of their military suddenly disobeying orders if any of these defectors turn out to be spies.
According to the book I read (Nothing to Envy). Defectors that reach SK first go through about a month of training (maybe two) on how to live in a modern culture, and then $20,000 to start a life. Sometimes a lot of that money is paid back to the people that helped smuggle them out though.
I wouldn’t dispute that, but my response was specifically to the claim that defecting military officers from the North are granted commissions in the ROK army (or navy or air force, presumably). I think that’s very unlikely (unless it’s entirely ceremonial), but I’m willing to be corrected if someone can provide a cite.
Oh. I wasn’t disagreeing with you either. Just thought it was relavent.
I doubt Kim is old enough to remember basketball greats Rick Barry and Michelle Marciniak
The Bundeswehr tried intergrating former Volksarmee personnel (only the men, & no flag officers) after German Reunification, but it didn’t work out very well. Most had to accept demotion a rank or two and none lasted more than a few years.
in my very humble opinion, you dont, especially not the UK or the US since they have successfully screwed up a bunch of countries by “trying to solve their problems” see Yugoslavia, Africa, and South east asia. North Korea should figure it out for themselves. Maybe having a dictatorship like theirs is best? Maybe they are happy?
Nuke Pyongang… easy
Yes, how foolishly Western-centric of us to think that Koreans like food just because we do. Perhaps they’re all happily starving to death so the Kims can afford liquor and missiles. The U.S. has plenty to be ashamed of foreign policy wise, but let’s not condescend by pretending these people would choose to live like this if they had any kind of choice. They’re not trading freedom for political stability here; they’re getting the worst of everything. It’s believed a few million people have starved to death over the last 20 years, a few million are in prison camps, and pretty much the entire country is severely malnourished. What money there is gets spent on the ruling family and the army. If you think up conditions nobody wants to live under, North Korea probably has them.
What is so damned hard about this:
China’s Interests <> USA Interests. They may overlap, but will NEVER include "US Client State on Chinese Border. We already have India, Japan. S. Korea, and Taiwan.
Let’s see how the group decides if the Chinese buy up Baja California and install a puppet regime. As well as one on Cuba.
I believe it was RAND which came up with the troop estimate of 250,000 - 400,000 US troops (depending on level of “pacification” required) to administer the 24.5 million people in DPRK.
Still sound like a good idea? Best we could hope would be to convince China that they were now rich enough to adopt the North and industrialize (talk about cheap labor!) and feed it. Then comes education.
For those who absolutely MUST absorb the North into the South:
What point in the South is visible to the largest number of people in the North?
Announce the location as the new Capital of the South and build a large, well-lit city there.
Forget trying to set up cell towers, hidden web repeaters, parachute drops - just let them see for their own eyes what is possible. It will drive the artillery commanders nuts.
Unless you can get together a mixed fleet of Chinese, Russian, American, British, French. German, Indian, and Pakistani bombers under Chinese command, to carpet-bomb the North’s artillery, they are a credible threat.
And you do NOT have to miniaturize your warhead to deliver it - your spooks could smuggle it in pieces wherever you want it to go.
Still with me? When W went after Saddam (he tried to kill my daddy!). the US had as good a setup as possible - the target was a desert, all our troops were out of enemy range, we had lots and lots of cruise missiles, EMT’s etc to take out command and control. YOU COULDN’T ASK FOR BETTER KILLING GROUNDS.
Despite all those advantages, Iraq still got off 23 missiles. OF WHICH 9 were successfully destroyed.
Less than half of obsolete Soviet export-grade missiles intercepted by state-of-the-art US hardware.
Please don’t tell me you’re going to attack the North without kissing Seoul (and much of whatever naval forces the ROK has goodbye.
I’ve reading up on DPRK lately - utterly fascinating.
For one thing the new “First Lady” is their equivalent of Jackie Kennedy - the women are getting their hair styled like hers, are dressing kinda like her (she gets away with more feminine clothing that does the average female prole).
BUT: she hasn’t been seen public for weeks - one rumor has it she was seen without her “Glory to Founder” pin -required bo be worn by everyone always and has become a non-person just like that.
Anyway - part of the regimented life is that there is an easy was to “decapitate” the leadership - it seems that there is a weekly gathering of simply ALL the political and military honchos - in a single hall. You miss the meeting, you lose your job.
Since they know of the capability of the Cruise missile (and if they didn’t already, asshole PARK (new Pres of ROK) has been boasting about it enough) I don’t see why they would continue to hold such meetings.
The trouble is there will be some time between that cruise missile and the destruction of the cannon, rocker launcher, mortar, etc. That time will be enough to wipe out large chunks of ROK and possibly Japan.
And, as far as we know, their command is “dead-man’s hand”: the order is sent out to attack in one hour unless a counter-command is given. If you take out the leadership, that counter-command doesn’t get sent.
The one interesting bit is the Un nephew is attending school in the West and is making friends with not only S. Koreans, but Americans as well.
Add to this that Un’s daddy wrapped him in several layers of protection against palace coups and the fact that Un has now not only dismantled most of those protective layers (killing some), and you have the potential to have another “People’s Glorious Revolution” to install his nephew, and you might have a rational butt on the throne.
Easy. You don’t. Crazy as their regime is, they have every right to defend themselves from attack.
Why does anyone think they weren’t chosen first in The Axis Of Evil?
They won’t subjugate to the US’s wishes? The horror! Fact is, the US won’t fuck with nuclear armed nations for obvious reasons – and they’ve shown it. Which naturally leads to more ‘conflicting’ nations to pursue just that goal. Thank you, Bush. Truly a mastermind of FP.
Point being if it wasn’t obvious by now, quite the contrary actually, if we live and accept a nuclear world w/out hypocrisy, it’s either or – countries that can develop them, ought/should do so. No reason it’s a club of what? Seven or eight now and the rest can suck eggs if confronted.
The most blatant example being Israel of course. Hardly hear a peep about them.