I get despondent at times due to thinking about some of the challenges we are going to face over the next 40 years. Peak oil, climate change, the global recession, a brain/science drain as India & China’s economies grow, shortages of various natural resources, medical care becoming more unaffordable, the shrinking middle class, etc.
So what are the big reasons to be optimistic about the future? Offhand I can think of
Renewable energy will keep getting cheaper. Wind power has dropped from about $0.50 a KWH n 1980 down to about $0.04 a KWH now. Solar has dropped about 90% in cost during the same time frame. So energy will get cheaper and will start being the ‘natural’ alternative due to cost. Wind has already achieved this, since it is cheaper than coal its rate of growth is about 20% a year. As a result wind barely existed 5 years ago, is now about 1-3% of energy and will likely make up 20% of energy by the 2020s.
The digital divide will shrink as cheap information technology saturates Africa, Asia and Latin America. As a result not only will people have access to the info to improve their own lives, but the increased transparency will hopefully increase levels of democracy and human rights.
Medicine will get more expensive (it is on track to double in price every 10 years) but it will get better. Diseases we cannot cure now will be curable.
The US will probably fall behind in Science and R&D but nations in Southeast Asia will produce more scientific advances.
Consumer goods will be more durable, multifunctional (a modern laptop can do the work of a half dozen consumer goods from a decade ago) and longer lasting.
Due to demographic changes the US seems to be entering a progressive era that will usher in economic, social and political reforms over the next few decades.
Social progress and more open public dialogue will be made on issues such as mental health tolerance, GLBT tolerance and hopefully even issues we tend to hide from/ignore like child sexual abuse.
We should see massive advances in nanotechnology, IT, biotechnology and robotics.
Advances in fighting global poverty, illiteracy, disease and malnutrition.
Futurism is one of the most inexact forecasts that even the most informed person can try to make. It has a horrible record even ten years out. The web itself is only about 15 years old for practical purposes and most people have only been on it for less than ten but few saw it coming. Everyone was thinking about flying cars in while it was in its infancy and those still haven’t worked out worth a damn.
I like to use my imagination but I don’t even try on this topic anymore. No one in the world knows.
I think items 6 and 7 in your list will exacerbate the advances in items 5, 8, and 9, and help to reverse the negative trends in item 4 as fear of intellectualism and reliance on religious dogma continue to wane, albeit very slowly in some parts of the country.
I’ll most very likely be dead in 40 odd years, at which point many things will be bother me much less and the amount of complaining I do will drop dramatically.
So, there is at least one modest point of improvment I can forsee…
Well, computers are going to get smaller and definitely find their ways into more stuff. Meanwhile the balance of international power shifts between US and China, which hopefully means that if the US gets a flu the rest of the world won’t follow. And Japan came up with giant mecha robots.
Other than that, I think everything is going downhill.
Well, that would reverse a long downward trend. Everything today is made of plastic and made to break so you have to buy another. A toaster used to last years and years. Now you are lucky to get past the one year mark. I still have a plumber’s snake of my Dad’s that has been around since i was a kid, every part made of metal. Go in to a Home Depot and examine a new one. The ring that holds the friction screw is made of PLASTIC. If you tighten the screw enough to use the tool, it will snap on the first try. Furniture used to be made of hardwood. Now most furniture contains particle board.
The fact is, a lot of stuff that is made these days is junk, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. That’s why I hold on to my old stuff.
Yup. I still have the electric rice cooker my dad bought in Japan in the 1960s. I use it several times a week. It is nearly 50 years old and I don’t see why it will not still be around in 40 years.
The biggest reasons to be optimistic about the future are the economic growth of China and India. I don’t know what will occur within the next 40 years, but sometime in the future this will mean:
For the first time in human history, more than half of the planet’s population will have a 1st world standard of living.
By tripling the population of the first world, we will have three times as many scientists, engineers, artists, etc. The sheer rate at which our species will be able to generate and test new ideas will overpower huge numbers of problems.
Even if the US does “fall behind in Science and R&D” in a relative sense, there is no reason it will do so in an absolute sense. The US has dozens of amazing research institutes, and there’s no reason for this to change if other countries open up their own institutions. When in doubt, see point 2.
Regarding Wesley Clark’s point about consumer goods durability: people often say that older cars, which were made of more steel and less plastic, are more durable and better able to survive an accident. If you are one of those people, watch this video.
We might hope that, expanding on the OP’s #7, there will be much less supression of demographic subgroups all the way around.
As communication and to a lesser degree transportation continue to improve, the ability of governments to contain their people in feudal style will be weaker. In some ways at least, it may be practically nil.
Like billfish, I’ll probably get much more rest than I do now…
You are right. Most things we can’t imagine and things we imagine happening don’t.
When I was in grade school (in the 50s) I remember seeing an exhibit of the city I lived where all the streets had moving sidewalks. That never happened except for perhaps in a couple of airports I’ve been in.
The OP mentioned 40 years. I can do the math… I’m not really thinking of what is possible then because I doubt that I’ll still be here.
While it’s much easier to find a plastic plumber’s snake for a reasonable price, the quality tools are still being made. It’s just that you have to pay a premium for them because there are now multiple echelons of “quality” of a certain type of tool. Same goes for furniture. Most of the big name furniture stores sell disposable furniture- it’s made to wear out and be thrown out in seven years, because that’s the average amount of time most people are content with their decor, then they redecorate and buy some more disposable furniture. A salesman at one of those furniture stores told me this when I told him I was looking for furniture that would last for 40 or 50 years, like my parents have.
You can still find the “old world craftsmanship” in just about anything, but you’ll pay for it. The reasonably-priced stuff is ubiquitous, but it’s cheap. But most people are satisfied with it, because they’ll use it a few times, throw it out, and get another one.
But do most people want to pay $250 for a toaster that will last them 40 years? No, me included. So I pay $35 for a toaster that lasts for 4-5 years, then I get another one.
I’ll finally have my flying car, the one that was promised to me back in the 60’s that I’d have by the year 2000. It’s ten years late now and starting to really piss me off.
Why does everyone think everything is “designed to break”? It’s designed to be made as cheaply as possible. As it happens, cheaply made products and materials tend to break sooner. I know I’m saddened that my great grandchildren won’t be able to inheret my plumber’s snake. But what does it matter? They will probably be using sonic plumber’s snakes to fix their space toilets.
Also, you can buy quality hardwood furniture if you like. It’s just very expensive.
Or your furniture. Or your house. Or your anything.
It doesn’t matter if stuff isn’t designed to break. If it’s designed to be made cheapshit so as to generate maximum margin, that’s pretty much the same thing.
Sadly, that’s the only way you can make anything today at a price most people can afford.
I bet you’re pissed off you preordered and paid for the car already. Trust us it will be out for public purchase next month and you’ll have a reserved car you can just drive away in from the lot.
