This is inspired by a comment in one of the many other threads suggesting that America appears on a path which could result in America being ruled by an autocrat and oligarchs a la Russia under Putin. I was surprised that a (admittedly pretty quick) Google did not turn up a clear side-by-side comparison of what Putin did with what Trump is doing, and what steps would result in future America more closely resembling present Russia.
I just started thinking of this recently, so my thoughts are as yet unformed. But it seems unnecessary to imagine dystopian futures, when we have a pretty clear real life analog to compare. Add in Trump’s bro-love for Putin… What US institutions could/would prevent progress down this path? I guess we lack Russia’s long history of authoritarian rule, but I’m not overly confident that the US’s proclaimed historic democratic values will provide sufficient protection.
Finally, exactly what would it be like for US folk in different social strata to live in today’s Russia? As a white, cis, atheist, upper middle class male nearing retirement, I could imagine my physical comfort to be somewhat similar to what I currently enjoy. I imagine would not enjoy my current freedom of speech - which I value tremendously. And I imagine just about anyone not in my “categories” would be considerably less “comfortable” than I.
I thought this specific (and interesting/important) enough to warrant its own thread. If my musings are ignorant and immature, and have been addressed elsewhere on the Dope, please point that out.
If you count this as Trump year 5, before now Putin had his richest oligarch in prison. And other oligarchs were soon jailed, forced to emigrate, or died under suspicious circumstances.
Also, Putin isn’t afraid of launching wars.
In Trumpian terms, Trump may be tough, but Putin is much tougher.
Comparison with Turkey may be better.
P.S. But your musings are certainly not ignorant or immature!
I wonder if there is an availability heuristic in picking Putin as the one authoritarian, out of many in the world, to say is similar to Trump, or successor, due to Putin being so much better known than some others.
Putin’s Ukraine war performance gives the appearance that he believes what his yes men tell him. Besides doing much worse than expected in Ukraine, he was on the losing side in Syria. He did win the Russo-Georgian War and Second Chechen War. Even though I don’t really see Putin and Trump as super-similar, you could say that just as Putin overreached militarily after early successes, Trump is doing the same with his recent expansionist rhetoric.
While I’ve said that Erdoğan is the closest out there to Trump, Erdoğan appears more competent than either Trump or Putin. So, even though Erdoğan is Trumpy, maybe Trump’s successor will be even more Erdoğany. This is not a happy thought! Here is an outstanding substack article comparing Erdoğan and Trump. It was written before the 2024 election, but the author’s expectation for how Trump was going to govern is spot on:
I feel I’m familiar enough with history to spot some patterns. And one is that a common factor you see in all dictators is how hard they worked to seize power.
Trump’s not a hard worker. If he has a historical model, it’s being a king not a dictator.
I feel Trump hasn’t got enough longevity to really establish himself the way Fidel Castro or Vladimir Putin have. By the time he dies, Vance may try, but he just hasn’t got Trump’s moxie. The whole MAGA cult relies on - well, cultiness, but I don’t think anyone other than Trump can pull it off.
And despite all the talk about how America is headed towards fascism, the checks and balances here still remain far stronger than in Russia.
Orban had a first term, and was voted out of power.
When he was reelected in 2010 he worked to slash taxes (implementing a flat tax), limit immigration, and ramp up spending (including giving grants to families that had 3 children).
Simultaneously, he worked to clamp down on media he didn’t control and gerrymander the hell out of the electoral process. He also stacked the courts, removing judges he didn’t control. Mix in a ton of corruption and using government funds to support party goals, and you can see the path the GOP might take.
Google has already gone along with the Gulf of America shtick. How much money has to be shoveled their way before they start tweaking search results? How about Facebook? Obviously X is already fundamentally a MAGA mouthpiece. These companies will be happy to tow the party line if it keeps the funding flowing.
AP got barred from the Musk/Trump show for not using Gulf of America. If more and more media self-censors in order to keep access (and not get threatened by the FCC like CBS is), you can see how a one-party system can be propped up for a very long time.
When one party controls the media (social media perhaps most importantly), the courts, and the voting systems, you have the recipe for something like Hungary or (at the most extreme end) Russia.
Notice Trump proposed to use a sovereign wealth fund to have the US potentially buy TikTok. Guess who would ultimately end up running a US-owned TikTok?
Those of you saying Trump isn’t young enough or hard enough of a worker to make this happen don’t realize he’s not the one running the show anymore. He’s the figurehead. A movement can easily outlast it’s figurehead once the system of control is in place.
Those who said “Trump-45 wasn’t so bad; don’t worry so much about Trump-47” have been proven wrong. This second incarnation of President Trump is far FAR worse than the first.
One piece of good news is that Trump will be 82 if he survives to the end of this term; and won’t amount to much even if his fans subvert the Constitution to give him a 3rd term. None of his sychophants have a fraction of Trump’s “charisma.” Ivanka is the only one of his children who might have a chance and she seems to have almost disowned him.
The long-term adversity depends therefore on how much permanent damage he does to American institutions and how much power gets entrenched by Trump followers like Elon Musk. Those futurities do seem bleak.
Comparisons with other autocrats get confused: There are strong similarities but also strong differences. Some take hope in that Trump is a semi-literate buffoon. But underneath the veneer of stupidity he is a most cunning con-man.
Your thoughts are by no means ignorant nor immature.
A clear side-by-side comparison of Putin and Trump will show at a first glance more differences than similarities: Putin is of modest background, starting as a kind of mobster and than rose up in the ranks of KGB, where he got the most important part of his education. For him the breakdown of the Soviet Union was the most important occurence of the 20th century and left him humiliated and looking for revenge for the politics of the West. Trump is of a wealthy background, has little formal education and no career in politics (before 2016). In the tradition of Russian politicians Putin allows very little information about his private life and does not allow glimpses or presumptions about his personality.Trump in the US tradition shows much more. In Putin’s obsessive hate against the West and his strive to be seen and treated as a kind of Czar one might presume some narcissistic traits but probably not as many and not as pathological as in Trump.
The similarities are to be found in their strive to be someone very special, to be granted privilege, not to allow opposition and their wish to be all powerful. At the moment Trump crashes democratic structures in the US, with the help of minions. Putin did the same in the first years in office. Putin started with a democratisation of the country but very soon it became clear that this was not the structures he wanted. He used the nationalisation of companies to enrich himself, political opposition was harassed and quite a few opponents fell out of windows, were shot or poisoned. Trump starts with the deconstruction of government structures with the help of Musk and will certainly take the chance to enrich himself. So far no opponents were killed in the US by Trump (to my knowledge) but he announced his revenge to prosecutors who investigated in his cases, hinted that he wouldn’t care if something happened e.g. to Fauci whom he refused further security detail, intimidation is his choice for the moment. What will follow is not yet clear. So they are quite different people in different political and historical backgrounds but their objective is very similar: build an authoritarian society with no political opposition, no participation of the population and present themselves as a kind of king or czar. No more elections needed.
It is very difficult to compare today’s Russia with the US, social stratification is very different. In Russia your social status is very dependent on your political views and contacts. If you are a yesman you and your family might live as you described above. Your freedom of speech might be restricted to be a supporter of official positions, your life and that of your family would be very dependent on your political position. If you can live with that, you might be ok but be aware of wrong opinions. In this case you might prefer to look for an apartment in the basement.
Thank you. I guess I thought of Russia - largely because I studied the SU in college back in the 70s, and because Russia seemed one of the closest to the US in terms of “size” (population/military/foreign influence…)
When I say Trump reminds me of Putin, I guess I did not really mean they were of similar backgrounds and capabilities. Instead, I was mainly thinking they are both folk who want to make a large country more autocratic. Whether Trump has Putin’s abilities, or is just allowing himself to be used as a figurehead, I’m not sure how much that matters.
Or their respective ages. If Trump succeeds in sending us far enough down a certain path, and really breaks enough democratic institutions, it seems more possible his followers will be able to continue that path.
I’m not sure this can be considered year 5 of Trump. He clearly hit the ground this time with far more of a coordinated plan or lawlessness.
I’ll do some more looking up on Turkey and Hungary.
I won’t 100% say that’s impossible. But I see Musk as more of a Goring/Malenkov type; a second rater who saw the advantage of sucking up to the big guy.
Elections conducted with all the due formalities and solemnities - but rigged by excluding potentially embarrassing oppositional candidates on various pseudo-legal grounds, limited media exposure for any remaining nominally alternative candidates, deluging voters with pro-regime propaganda, and various tricks and manoeuvres to discourage/penalise voters who look like voting against.
I doubt if likely candidates would risk making themselves too visible yet, nor is there likely to be an anointed successor even in pectore. It might well vary from country to country, but those in the predominant power bases are likely to be ready to start jostling among themselves - business oligarch or apparatchik? It could turn nasty - and wouldn’t favour democracy unless the regime were visibly failing even to believe in itself.