The present situation (quasi dictatorship) is most comparable to which previous, historical situation?

Politics & Elections
1

The US is on the road to full-on dictatorship. I’d say we’re about 20 percent there, on a continuum from 1 percent = full-on liberal democracy and 100 percent = Nazi Germany.

This is comparable to …? I wouldn’t say that Trump Regime = Pinochet Regime, as we’re not yet to the point of widespread disappearances, systematic torture, etc. Yet. I’d say the direction we’re heading is more towards Francoist Spain than Nazi Germany or Pinochet’s Chile or what have you.

What say you, fellow Doper?

2

I’d say it belongs somewhere in the current crop of dictators and quasi-dictators around the world. Take your pick somewhere on the spectrum between Victor Orban and Vladimir Putin

3

It depends on when they start rounding up anti-government citizens and holding them for an indefinite period of time, like they did in Francisco Franco’s Spain or Benito Mussolini’s Italy, and we’re a long way from that. I think we’re currently moving into the Ferdinand Marco’s Philippines area right now. Becoming a democracy in name only.

4

All I can think of is Parable of the Sower and Parable of the Talents by Octavia E. Butler. Especially the latter.

5

Depressing article on point:

6

I think the rise of Putin in Russia comes closest with its oligarchy, unsustainable political/economic system and an aggrieved racial base that wants revenge more than anything else.

7

A good discussion of this topic https://youtu.be/vK6fALsenmw?si=r5xQWVIt0EMkOMDv

Sorry, I struggle with embedding video. It is a Wired video in which a political science prof answers questions on dictators and puts Trump in context.

8

You will find this video Q&A with a history professor on-point and enlightening. It’s 30 minutes, surveying past dictatorships for parallels, and informative in every single minute. Highly recommended.

The problem with trying to draw historical analogies is that no two situations map precisely into one another. There will always be grounds for someone to object to the comparison: “you said A is like B, but that can’t be because XYZ.” You need to study lots of examples to begin recognizing the commonalities, and even then very few observations will be analogous to every single member of the set.

9

That’s the video I was trying to embed above. Great minds and all that.

10

What we are becoming is a new type of fascism - American Exceptionalist Fascism. Nobody does it like we do!

11

Yeah that’s a key point here. We are living in unprecedented times, not in a good way. Yeah there are parallels in Putins Russia or Orban’s Hungary. But Trump’s USA is neither of those things. Nothing like this has happened before, if anyone thinks they know how this is going to turn out, they are wrong

12

Pinochet’s Chile comes to mind. We stayed with a hotelier who was a victim ( the court case goes on even now. ) The details were gruesome and our heart went out to him.
I’m not certain that elements of that dictatorship are no present now in some of the over reach by security agencies or even over zealous police…seizure of cash without due process on a traffic stop comes to mind. Thin edge…

13

So Freedom house is one of the groups that measures democracy and human/civil/political rights.

The US was at 94/100 around 2010 before the GOP won the house. Then after about 13 years of the GOP, the US’s score dropped to about 83-84.

As part of their Freedom in the World survey series, Freedom House downgraded the United States’s score significantly in their civil rights and political liberties index between 2010 (94) and 2020 (83), including an accelerated 6-point loss during the first presidency of [[Donald Trump alone, citing the need for 3 main reforms: removing barriers to voting, limiting the influence of money in politics, and establishing independent redistricting commissions.

I have no idea how bad it could be. Under Biden we jumped a whole point up to 84, but we’re going to start sliding again, probably more than the 6 points we lost under the first Trump administration. I’m ‘hoping’ that the worst case scenario is maybe a latin american nation or eastern european nation. Maybe Poland or Hungary.

The issue is the judicial system will just be ignored, the legislature has willingly given up its power.

14

No doubt I am way too unsophisticated to enter this conversation, but didn’t we just have a an election, why is it a dictatorship?

15

Quazi dictatorship-using the election to gain political power…then throwing rules, precedent and standards right out the windows in a naked attempt to become an emperor of sorts, intimidating whenever possible, trying to turn political opponents into actual political prisoners, embracing lies and openly advocating hatred and bigotry.
BTW, what is “unsophisticated” supposed to be a euphemism for?

16

Trump being free to do as he pleases because he was legally elected is the same reasoning as Ted Bundy being free to do as he pleased because the women got into his car.

17

Right, this is a good example of my point above that these kinds of analogies are never precise. The rule of Pinochet is comparable to Trump’s rise in that—

  • Both ascended to power under the semi-covert influence of a malevolent foreign power. Putin’s meddling in American elections is similar to the way Nixon ordered the sabotage of Chile’s economy under Allende in an attempt to undermine his support.
  • Just as Trump is selling himself as a populist reformer, Pinochet justified his self-serving attacks on state institutions by claiming to be rooting out corruption and improving efficiency on behalf of the people.
  • Both openly express contempt for democratic freedoms as the path to weakness and failure. When Pinochet took power, he referred back to the earlier Chilean politician Diego Portales to explain his approach. Trump is obviously not in any way a political philosopher, but his objectives and his disregard for democratic norms result in similar rhetoric.
  • Despite his abusive regime, Pinochet never lost the support and protection of his allies, and all attempts to put him on trial and hold him responsible for his crimes came to nothing; he died a free man. The same has been true for Trump, and barring some miraculous change in American politics, it will continue to be true.

But it is not comparable in that—

  • Nixon’s sabotage was unsuccessful; Allende won the election, and it was necessary to remove him and install Pinochet by means of an overt military coup. This obviously didn’t happen with Trump.
  • Pinochet was a career military man, and his rule was greatly informed by this background; he thought about power in terms of physical force. Trump, by contrast, is a businessman (quote-unquote); he thinks about power in terms of financial leverage.
  • Chile was obviously much smaller and less powerful; its dictatorship was almost entirely inwardly focused, with limited ambitions outside its borders. Pinochet’s regime supported anti-Communist efforts in, say, El Salvador, but they weren’t interested in broader conquest. Trump, meanwhile, is openly throwing American weight around to dominate the hemisphere.

And so on, and so on. Which points of comparison are more or less important? Which similarities matter, and which don’t? Which differences matter, and which don’t?

Again, the idea is not to find historical precursors which precisely mirror current events, because they don’t exist. One must study many examples and identify the broader commonalities. Chile is a good example in many ways, but the analogy also breaks down in many specifics where other historical forebears may offer a closer equivalence. Any one comparison will take you only so far. You need many.