How high must wages go to make large scale factory automation attractive?

Toyota workers in Kentucky plant made more (on average) than UAW members last year

Granted, this is to prevent the workers from unionizing and this was a one-time spike; but as the article points out Toyota regularly pays American auto factory workers wages that are near the level of UAW average. Even the idea of paying near-UAW level wages did not prompt Toyota to replace these workers with automation… as recently as 2007.

If the capital costs to switch to automation in a car factory are higher than the costs to pay wages that approach the UAW average… then how, in the foreseeable or mid-term future*, will automation (of the level that replaces these high-wage workers) ever be feasible?

Basically, the theory is that if you bring manufacturing work back from overseas to America to serve the American market, then employers will simply switch to automation. This meme has been repeated many times. Yet how can this theory hold when reality demonstrates that foreign companies who put factories here have chosen to pay almost Union-level wages** than replace these expensive workers with robots and they’re dominating the market while doing so?

  • In the long term, of course, there is the dream of nano-manufacturing. And American bullet trains and honest politicians, too.

** It is safe to assume that once you are paying workers wages at or near UAW averages, you’re at or near the market limit for auto factory wages. (For instance.)

I don’t know anyone on this MB who is saying that, so that’s your first mistake. For me, all I said was that the higher the wages, the more incentive there is to automate.

Your second mistake is focusing only on wages. One of the UAW’s (or, rather, the companies that employed to workers) problems is with health care benefits promised to already retired workers. You would have known that if you just read the 1st comment someone made to the article in your link.

Your third mistake is to assume “manufacturing jobs” = “automobile manufacturing jobs”.

Your fourth mistake is assuming that automobile manufacturing in countries like the US, Japan and Germany are not already highly automated.

I’ll leave it to others to point out what your 5th and further mistakes are.

As to the question posed in your title… that’s an investment decision that depends on a lot of factors, only one of which is the labor rate.

That’s the extent of my contribution to this thread. Any other comments I have I’ll make in the Pit.

If we raise tariffs against low wage nations what is your theory on the response by industrialists? Yeah, like I said, you believe they’d automate.

NOT a mistake.

Even without the UAW benefits those wages being paid to Toyota workers FAR exceeds what you’d see for Chinese workers producing the same vehicles.

I wasn’t talking about WAGES PLUS BENEFITS because the discussion didn’t need to go there. Thirty bucks an hour for making cars is so far to the north of what they pay in other countries that it’s downright superfluous.

NOT a mistake. I used that as a measurable example.

Define “highly automated”. Perhaps you don’t realize how many workers they have in those factories? For God’s sake Toyota just added 1000 more workers to build Tacomas at their Austin plant… in August. 2010.

GM and the Big Three have been cutting back while Toyota has been (at times) ramping up.

Robots or not, 1,000 extra people is a lot of work at one factory.

Ah, another futile debate! Excellent.

Foreign companies who build plants in the US build highly automated plants. Did you think they were putting in Chinese style low skilled labor type plants?? :stuck_out_tongue: So, how do they pay ‘Union-level wages’ to their workers? Well, it’s not a big mystery. For one thing, they don’t have to pay into the vast retirement accounts that American auto-manufactures do, due to decades of union collective bargaining for better benefits including that retirement. My guess is that Toyota pays less in loaded costs per employee than GM or Ford does, and that lets them pay a higher salary. In addition, due to that automation stuff you don’t seem to have a clue about, companies like Toyota and BMW can build state of the art and highly automated plants here in the US which require less workers with higher skills to run them.

lol…you talk like this is some future technology that people are merely speculating about! We’ve been moving in these directions for decades now, and the fact of the matter is that more folks have lost their low skill manufacturing mobs to robots than to Indian or Chinese workers. You simply can’t seem to grasp this, sadly.

Wages are only ONE factor that make up the equation of whether it makes sense to automate or to outsource or relocate the plant to another region, state or country. There are all sorts of other factors like the loaded cost of an employee (wages + benefits + overhead), taxes, the capital costs of building the automated plant and projected ROI, amortization of the investment, etc etc. Your cartoon view of the this subject is laughable.

But they DID automate their plant. They built a highly automated state of the art manufacturing plant and then staffed it with high skilled workers to integrate and maintain the system. Plus, they are almost surly paying less in total loaded costs per employee, even if the salary is similar. In addition, foreign companies often get all sorts of tax breaks and other benefits (they don’t pay import fees IIRC) for building plants in the US. Taken all together, the only one surprised or confused by this seems to be you (well, might be speaking too soon as the thread just started).

-XT

Pfft.

After looking at the facts, automation is not the big bad wolf it’s made out to be. One thing’s for certain it will not replace far too many workers, no matter how big it gets.

They said automation was catching on in the tech industry. I see plenty of it there but until they can make computers that write and test software it’s no friggin’ threat. And the day they can do so we’re gonna have bigger problems on our hands than a million lost jobs.
If anything studying the statistics of automation in manufacturing has moved me away from Luddite thinking.

Automation builds a better more consistent product. Before automation fits were sloppier and welds could come loose. You used to calculate 2 poor welts per foot. Now they are all the same and reliable. Machines don’t get sick, high or come in with a hangover.
But they are expensive to develop, build install and maintain. The modern ones requires highly trained maintenance staff and operators.
An auto plant has always been a loud, dangerous and dirty place to work. They are cleaner now because the machinery requires it. But they are unpleasant to work in and if you think you have to do it for 30 years or more it can be disheartening. It is a job almost anyone on this board would hate and many could not do.

What do you consider large scale automation?
Every press in my company has a robot. Some simple pick and place, some with 5 axis Fanuc robots. We did 5 million in sales 10 years ago with 90 people. This year around 10 million with 60 people.
Far fewer people putting parts in a box. The skilled workers designing and building end of arm tooling are still employed.

Well there is this fantasy that gets bandied about in some places about totally automated factories run by machines and maybe a handful of workers to service and program them. Hell, even I bought into the idea that automation threatens line workers. If they do, I haven’t seen much evidence.

There’s large scale automation in that there are a lot of robots at work out there and they are making line workers more efficient… and then there’s the kind I was concerned about… the kind of large scale automation in that line workers are a thing of the past. The former is very much here; but after studying up, though, I no longer see how the latter is anywhere on the horizon except, maybe, when you’re mass-producing plastic grocery bags? Maybe?

Yes, the silly idea that future factories will be tended by a man and a dog, and the dogs’ job is to keep the man away from the machines.

The company I work for now builds and sells four times the units with half the direct labor than a decade ago. We still need actual people in our factories, just far fewer of them. Our processes are not totally automated, and probably never will be. But that doesn’t make a lot of difference when you are one of the six out of ten jobs we HAVE automated.

And ten years ago we were mostly in Asia in terms of manufacturing. We are still mostly in Asia - we just have a lot fewer Asian employees.

What’s missing in this equation is the jobs that are created because products are cheaper and better.

Cars today are cheaper in real terms than they have ever been, and more reliable than they’ve ever been. A good part of the reason for that is automation. The result is that people use less of their disposable income in the purchase and maintenance of their car, so they own two cars, and a second car factory is created, providing more jobs. Or perhaps they only have one car, but now they have more money for iPods and travel, creating jobs in the computer and travel industries.

The service industries have been a major area of job growth in the west, for the simply reason that people are now wealthy enough to demand more services. More people get maids to come in a couple times a month. More people get their hair styled more often, or eat out more often, or purchase various entertainments in more quantity.

The main reason labor-intensive goods are being built overseas is because it makes sense to do so. Once you reach a certain level of average wealth, it no longer makes sense to employ highly productive people by sitting them on chairs and having them thread leather needles through running shoe uppers. So we either automate or outsource it.

Instead, we employ people in high productivity jobs that leverage our strengths. Auto workers don’t make $35/hr because of union pressure - as the OP just admitted. So how come an auto worker can command that amount of money? Because his labor is being magnified by millions of dollars in capital investment. A skilled operator controlling a fanuc welding robot is generating a lot more wealth per hour than a semi-skilled worker manually riveting car bodies, or an unskilled worker lugging heavy parts around a plant.

I’ve never understood why the left thinks this is a bad thing. It’s exact what we’ve always hoped we’d become - the smart, rich people in the white coats and suits doing the planning and design and high value stuff, while having our basic needs provided by high quality goods made by people who have not climbed as far up the productivity ladder as we have. But the fact that we’re buying from them is exactly what they need to learn to be productive and join us. That’s what happened to Japan, and South Korea, and Singapore, and Shanghai, and it’s currently happening in India and Indonesia and other places. It’s a win-win situation. The world gets better for everyone when everyone is free to do what they do best and trade with each other for mutual benefit.

But one reason the left doesn’t like this is because the power center of the left is dominated by trade unions, and trade unions lose power as the workforce becomes more skilled and more differentiated. That’s why union power has been declining in the west for decades. It’s not because of the shenanigans of the evil right wing - it’s because unions don’t work very well in a modern information age economy.

Rigid hierarchies and promotion through seniority and pay equality may be fine when every worker is exactly the same, when they’re all just automatons doing the same job on an assembly line. But when people have to exercise judgment and leverage knowledge and be adaptable, unions fall apart. Unionized professionals are a horrible idea.

So the auto workers, and the public union leaders, and the steel workers and the other unions lobby and propagandize about the ‘death’ of American manufacturing, and demand tariffs and barriers against foreign labor. They are the modern labor equivalents of the Luddites in the 17th century who went around destroying powered looms and factories because they were taking away the jobs of weavers.

American manufacturing is not dying. It’s growing (or was until the recession). The number of people employed in it has fallen, but in dollar terms manufacturing itself is just fine. But Americans don’t export running shoes and cheap T-shirts and pocket radios - they export robots and power plants and turbines and engineering consulting services. Americans export the high value stuff, and let the poorer nations do the cheap stuff. Because it is America’s comparative advantage to do so.

By the way, where are these factories that are paying their workers so much? They’re in places like Texas, where they set up to avoid rigid union rules, high taxes, and bureaucracy. Texas maintains a low tax, low regulation, high growth governmental model. This has resulted in job growth and an atmosphere in which highly skilled employees are worth more and get paid more.

What’s missing is that workers can improve themselves too. They really ought to look into Hatha Yoga, for starters.

Technology and Job Loss Your sense that automation has replaced workers is correct. According to Sales in this article 6.5 million jobs, in America, from 1988 to to 1999. It has resulted in a permanent class of unemployed people. The class gets bigger by a half a million a year. It is a problem because machines don’t buy things to keep the economy humming.

You say that it’s a problem because machines don’t buy things and keep the economy humming. By “keep the economy humming” do you mean maintain aggregate demand above aggregate supply to prevent a liquidity trap? If so, the State can quite well make up for that by increasing the quantity of money until aggregate demand is a few percentage points above aggregate supply.

Also, you realize that if it’s a problem, it’s been a problem since the start of the industrial revolution since machines didn’t buy things 200 years ago anymore than they do now.

A problem I see is the group of people who will never learn how to progam a robot, troubleshoot an interface, design a fixure, or machine a one off replacement part. Those with the skills to do that will have a job. The people who did what the robots can do are not needed.
What jobs are there for these former factory workers?

I am a leftist by nature, but I do not see much point in trying to hold back automation, it has expanded the economy in many ways and provided other employment in ways not even thought of just a few years ago.

We don’t really want ot see workers breaking their backs doing unskilled manual labour when they could be doing something far more fulfilling, like doing the things that only people can do, instead of just being an organic machine.

Another point is this, if you don’t invest in automation, then your production will be lower and quality will be poorer, and your competitors will certainly invest in it.

Automation also leads to changes in design, and this makes product manufactur simpler, with fewer parts, energy consumption per unit is lower, and newer dsigns have more recyleable parts than ever.

There is always a cost in employment to automation, but we have been doing it since , well for ever and it is not going to stop now.

The question underneath the question, the one we dare not ask: what are we going to do with all these useless people? We’re content to preach the work ethic to the unemployed when there really aren’t that many of them, we can get away with that, up to a point.

But sooner or later we have to have a national discussion on the nature of work and its rewards. Why do we value work? And what value do we assign to it? Is our economy a mechanism to supply wealth and well-being to as many of our people as possible, or are we conducting a gigantic game of Monopoly, and Devil take the hindmost. If we automate away the necessity of labor, how does it have any value, for anyone?

Sorry for the hijack, but where do useless people really come from? Consider Eisenhower’s Cross of Iron speech, or these excerpts:

Thanks, that was great reading.

That technology may be possible… in the very far future. But not any time in the foreseeable years ahead.

In any case, if we suddenly were forced (by, say, sudden currency devaluation) to bring manufacturing back home, automation would not stop those jobs from reaching the masses.

Does anyone honestly believe that if automation did displace a ton of workers and every manufacturing worker learned how to program a robot, that they would all find a job?* Hell, many of them would be denied work because of age discrimination.

I look at another area - construction. Cranes have done precious little to stem the amount of work in construction even though that automates the work that would have been done by, say, so many people trudging up a ramp (think: Egyptian pyramid slave gangs, but paid). What killed construction jobs? The subprime crash, not automation.

  • DISCLAIMER: this question must assume the scenario that automation would have put tons of people out of work. Automation has hardly snatched line worker jobs yet, so this scenario is way, way, way off. That said, I would NEVER tell someone NOT to learn how to program today’s robots in today’s economic climate.