How irreplaceable is Trump?

Don’t see it.

He’s done SO man things that are simply stupid–i.e., self-destructive, not in his own best interests, shooting himself in the foot–but has gotten away with them because his supporters are willing to overlook so much. Imagine a Trump who knows how to capitalize, to take a trivial example. Now, some of his supporters might say “Excellent! A man who flouts the foolish academic rules about capitalizing nouns!” but I think more voters say “A man who can’t master a simple rule we were all taught in third grade may be too dumb to serve as POTUS, just saying.” Multiply this effect by 1000, which doesn’t begin all the just-plain-dumb things he does, and I think his dumbness costs him votes he could otherwise win.

I don’t think you should be worrying about the next Donald Trump, I think you should be worrying about the next John McCain. Someone with military experience, popular appeal, a solid conservative record, but also an independent streak. Suppose Romney hadn’t run to be the Republican candidate in 2012, but McCain and Trump both had. My opinion only, but I think McCain would have kicked Trump’s ass.

Out of curiosity, I looked at Congressmen with military experience. One name that jumped out was Tom Cotton, the junior senator from Arkansas. He’s not a maverick in the McCain mold. However, he’s a US Army combat veteran with a Ranger tab, a Harvard law school graduate, has strong conservative credentials, and has occasionally gone against the Republican leadership. I’m not sure how charismatic he is, but he seems to be solidly anti-woke. I’ve never seen him but on paper he seems to be the type of politician red-meat Republican voters would rally behind.

Yeah, Cotton is who I mean by

No sex scandals, no “cofveve” idiocy, but all of the evil, mean, racist qualities.

Cotton doesn’t ragingly piss off liberals. Cotton is boring. Cotton doesn’t make racist jokes, slander, and mock people based on disability, ethnicity, gender, etc. DC insiders aren’t terrified of Cotton. Cotton lacks pretty much every characteristic that made Trump so popular with his biggest fans.

That’s undeniably part of it. I also think a lot of people also liked Trump because he didn’t come off as a normal politician delivering polished statements.

Jesus, I live in Arkansas and I never thought I’d see the day where we’d be talking about Cotton in a favorable light.

Are those pros or cons towards replacing Trump? Restate those qualities as anti-liberal, unwilling to compromise, and anti-immigration and I see them getting support.

His name also lends itself to terrible jokes. That can be good or bad.

Cotton sticks, but just in the way most Republicans in office suck. IMO he doesn’t stand out.

Oh, they’re positives among Trump/Cotton voters. I’m saying that they share those qualities, but Cotton has none (or few) of the things that hurts Trump with his supporters (saying stupid shit that doesn’t make sense in its own terms, cofveve, etc. They SAY they like this stuff but come on, man. If he ate his own shit on TV, they’d SAY they approve of his taste in food.)

Endorsing cannibalism is a bold strategy.

That seems very unlikely. Trump has been battling a lot of enemies in the Republican party, but he has not released any opposition research on any of them. His go-to route has been to call them childish names (e.g. “Old Crow” etc. etc.), false claims (e.g. “he came begging for my endorsement and only won because of me”) and, if they are running for re-election, to endorse opposing primary candidates.

Back when Trump was just a businessman he was pretty much under the radar in terms of his illegal business tactics. The main government officials he needed to influence back then would have Democrats, who controlled the cities where he did his real estate developing and other ventures, and would have a lot of influence over things like permits and approvals etc.

Trump’s a unique individual. He’s been in the public eye for decades. And for all that many posters on this board denigrate him and point out his failures, he’s had a lot of success and positive publicity. I may not view being a Wrestlemania star, or appearing on the cover of Playboy magazine as accolades, but there are plenty of people who do. I can think of plenty of celebrities that have more widespread recognition than Trump did before 2016, but few with his level of brashness. And I don’t think any of them are interested in running for President. (Although there was a Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson rumour a couple of years ago - is The Rock a Republican?) So I don’t think there’s going to be a Trump 2.0, especially while “The Donald” is still on the political landscape.

So who would replace Trump as a Republican front-runner? I don’t think it will be Romney. And Romney himself is pretty unique so it won’t be a Romney 2.0. Instead, my guess is that it will be someone in the McCain model - military background, mainstream conservative, strong local support, and a good background story. I spotted Cotton as someone who fits that model, even if he’s not a close fit to McCain the individual.

Of course, this presumes that Trump has reached the end of his political career. I think he has. I’m not sure he really expected to win in the first place. I don’t think he enjoyed being president. The loss to Biden obviously stung. And now he’s mired in lawsuits and criminal investigations. My guess is that Trump will continue to hold political rallies and be a conservative social media icon, but will find some excuse for why he’s not interested in running again. Maybe he’ll say he can do more to clear the swamp from the outside, rather than the inside.

He has 90% of the power out of office that he held in it, which is to endorse GOP candidates he likes and to speak against those he doesn’t. A few of those endorsements turn out to be for losing candidates, though, and the GOP no longer fears him, and there goes almost all of his remaining power.

He previously identified himself as Republican, but then publicly endorsed Biden/Harris in 2020.

So maybe he’s someone like me, who got fed up with Trump and decided that sanity is better.

ETA: Here is more info.

So, he even spoke at the RNC in 2000. But he despised Trump, and then supported BLM. And then…

So yeah, he seems to have switched sides.

This is so important, and not just for banishing Trump but for the survival of our democracy. If every Trump-aligned wingnut who wins the GOP nomination in a genuinely contested race* loses to the Democrat, the GOP might finally grow the stones to speak out against the loons, uncategorically affirm Biden’s win and shut Trump out from all party activity.

(*I realize there are many districts and states where the GOP nominee could be a convicted child rapist and still win. Can’t hope for much from those.)

If the wingnuts show they can beat Dem candidates in purple districts and states, however, it only encourages the GOP to go full wingnut (if they haven’t already).

I agree. A lot of his appeal is in his unique circumstances. According to the popular narrative, he’s a self-made billionaire and extraordinarily successful in business, he’s got a tough-guy attitude, he’s derisive of things he doesn’t like, agree with, or understand, and he fits a certain set of masculine stereotypes that play well with the far-Right (never apologizes, alpha male, etc…).

And he’s got a certain ability to tell that crowd what they want to hear in a way that they understand, and they love him for it. Most other politicians are too concerned about how they’re heard and how they’re perceived to go all-in with that crowd, and if they do, they’re perceived as insincere. Now how Trump managed to be perceived as sincerely on their side I have no idea whatsoever.

In other words, it’s his personal charisma that make him so adored, not the fact that he’s the de-facto leader of the Republican party. Some will certainly vote for other candidates for that reason, but those other candidates won’t be loved; they’ll be voted for out of duty.

:flushed: Thank you!

Okay, you make a very good point. It would be highly unusual for Trump to have any power or information and not try to leverage it for his personal advantage. The thing about opposition research however, is that you can only pull that trigger once. It is the difference between a muzzle loading flint lock, and a modern assault rifle; once you fire the musket you are done! The question is can Trump control his impulses enough to sit on that kind of weapon??

Only Trump himself, his adult children, his employees, his staff members, his accountants and lawyers, and his valet know for sure how deep his liability runs. Trump himself would very likely fire that one shot at first opportunity when the enemy is still a very long way out of range, but by now every advisor would have given him encouragement to aim and fire. Perhaps you are right and he has nothing but bluster to stave off discontent in the ranks. (Or maybe he is really good at bluffing. We have discussed often how good Trump is at talking around a subject. Perhaps he has convinced some party members that he does have dirt on them and without being certain they are not going risk it. If he phrases it vaguely enough and puts the right spin on it, maybe he can make it work. “After what my investigators have turned up . . . I would have thought you might be more agreeable. Why don’t you go back to your office and think it over - and then come back and tell me where you landed on this issue which is VERY important to me, your President.”)

Still, I just have to wonder about experienced politicians who are on a national stage and have been through many election cycles continuing to defer to Trump (or returning to defer to Trump after denouncing him). It defies all bounds of . . . . well, not humanity- they are politicians, not logic- same reason, morality- felt silly even typing that one, self preservation. Yes self preservation!

Trump is not the goose who lays the golden eggs – Trump is the goose who shits all over the golden eggs he inherited. Why oh why do these otherwise competent men and women stick to him??? Do they all have battered spouse syndrome??

I still believe he may have some damning evidence. Perhaps he is already using it by showing it to the subject and promising to make it public if they do not declare fealty. In that case the blackmailer has as much (or more) motivation to keep the secret secret because he loses his power over the subject once the secret becomes known. I say I would face a firing squad before I would defer to the likes of Trump (but truthfully it has been a very long time since a gun was ever pointed at me).

You do recall that McCain did run – and did get his ass kicked?? And by an inexperienced and long shot Democratic candidate- albeit a very likable one.

Not to give those guys any ideas, but what about Cotton at the top of the ticket with Noem or some other fire breather as the VP candidate? Move the comic relief to the supporting actor and let the top appear statesman like?

This is an interesting angle. The people who seem to most strongly support him are the ones most distant from him. People distant in position and wealth and even geographically – people who have met him tend to hate him (unless they work for him or otherwise profit from being associated with him). The people who love Trump are the ones who Jordan Klepper makes fun of while they don’t even realize they are the butt of the joke. Most people who have actually met Trump hate him. That includes every foreign leader who ever had the misfortune, all of the White House staff, every bureaucrat in DC, Republican leadership, Democratic leadership, every celebrity who was ever on a talk show with him, etc.

I had a very proudly Italian relative who loved to point out how beloved Bing Crosby was by all of America – and how universally hated he was by his own family and those closest to him. At the same time Sinatra hung out with gangsters, smoked and drank, and many disapproved of him. But his friends and family loved him and were devoted to him. Trump can fool the distant masses and a very few close sycophants - but it works for him very well.

Agreed

But his charisma is that of a teamster delegate. He is adored like the toughest guy in a working class bar. His fan club are all guys (or so it seems to me) who are so delighted that one like them has ascended to the heights!! Kind of like a floor worker in a factory being promoted up to work in the corporate offices so the suits can stay in touch with the work force. Well that is why the guys like him. The women seem devoted because their charlatan religious leaders told them Trump was God’s own appointed choice. Of course those two groups have married each other and encourage each other.

They tried this with McCain/Palin.

Yes, but the danger is that they will learn from their mistakes . . . despite Trump . . . and everything.

Plus, Palin wasn’t supposed to be the comic relief – that was a happy accident encouraged by Tina Fey that very strongly supported the Democratic ticket that cycle.