A play on Goldwater’s campaign slogan, “In Your Heart You Know He’s Right”. Another was “In Your Heart You Know He Might”…ie, drop The Bomb.
Each of those polls has a margin of error. So the average of those polls also has a margin of error.
I am a registered Republician but more of a main-street; no-aluminum foil hat libertarian, moderate type than the current party. I voted for Obama twice and I plan on voting on for Clinton*. IMHO she’s practical and competent and would be a good president even if I don’t agree with all her positions. Also I don’t want to see social conservatives on the Supreme Court.
I think Bernie is a good man but his ideas are pie in the sky. I don’t believe he would make a good president as he is more of a rabble-rouser type than an executive. Sanders vs. Trump would be a tough choice. Lets hope it doesn’t come to that.
Sanders and Trump have lots of potential cross-over appeal. They both appeal to angry and scared of the future whites. Trump is currently big with working class whites but they could conceivably switch to Bernie. How many times has it been asked why this demographic votes Republican which is against their economic interests?
*If Kasich by some miracle got the nomination, I would consider him but I think he maybe too social conservative. I haven’t studied up on him too much. Clinton vs Kasich, I would probably go Clinton. Sanders vs. Kasich, Kasich easily.
Hillary supported Goldwater. (Disclaimer: There was a phase in my youth when I did as well.) And a lot of people consider him one of the better candidates ever, when it comes to principle/ policy, not popularity. That’s why the Ron Paul people were so excited to get Barry Jr on board, among other things. He’s like the great All-American last defender of the Constitution. It was everyone else that was crazy, for supporting that socialist instead. I suspect some people will fondly remember Trump in the same way when he loses. All you idiots wouldn’t support the one guy who would make American Great Again.
I would not support Trump because he’s a joke, but also because he has no good consistent policy positions. There is no way he can appeal to anyone unless they are ignorant and/or have no consistent beliefs themselves (which is probably fairly common). He’s not conservative, liberal, libertarian, or anything else I can really identify. He likes using Big Government to enrich himself. He’s not a religious conservative (neither am I, I just don’t understand his appeal to those types). I will vote for anyone against Trump.
I forgot as to why Trump supporters wouldn’t defect to Clinton. She’s seen as establishment/typical politician and they want a “tell it as it is” outsider. She also carries a lot of baggage. For almost 25 years, the hard right has been vilifying her and lots of the Trump crowd believes it all.
IMO support for Hilary is very shallow among Democrats. No one I know really likes her, but would vote for her over any conceivable Republican candidate, or maybe stay home altogether.
Bernie, however, generates interest real interest, either fandom or some kind of bemused fascination. I think he will get more people to get out to vote for him than Hilary will, and that’s why he outpolls her in a match against Trump. Because people see him as a chance to change the game, albeit a slim one. Hilary is just another political hack, though less scary than the Republican hacks.
Confirmation bias. If you hang out with mostly white, under-50, secular folks, you meet a lot of passionate Bernie supporters. If you hang out with a different crowd, you see a lot of passionate Hillary supporters. The data says Hillary has higher favorables among Democrats and higher enthusiasm among her supporters (though not by much, both tend to be in the higher 30s for “enthusiastic” support).
So what? You said that the source was biased, when all the source did was average a bunch of other polls. Do you hold that it’s biased to average a bunch of polls together?
He started with the sentence “And that’s within the margin of error,” which seems to be the perspective of his side of your back-and-forth.
He then continued with “And then you have to consider HP’s Democrat bias,” which seems to be where you’re coming from.
The two do seem to fit together conversation-wise if you end up on the same page. I stopped reading HP a long time ago (I grew weary of their constant shouting headlines and proclivity towards click-bate), so don’t know how unbiased they are in terms of which polls they chose to include in their sample.
I’m pretty much accepting now that Trump will probably be the nominee. I know this fills many of my fellow Democrats with glee, but I prefer not to tempt fate. What if he actually won? The horror! The horror!
I look on the bright side – a Trump victory might destroy the modern incarnation of the Republican party.
Well, the wife and I are about to move back to the US, and we don’t want no President Trump, no matter how entertaining he might be.
Given the Supreme Court situation I consider any of the GOP candidates to be pretty horrible. Kasich is just as much a social conservative as the others though he is better at playing nice in public.
I too consider all the GOP candidates pretty horrible, but really, Trump is in a class all by himself.