People vote for their candidate for two reasons:
- They love their candidate.
- They hate the other one.
Joe Biden has made it a sport to get as many Republicans furious with him as he can. His anti-Maga speech with the red backdrop was received very poorly by at least half of America. The J6 prosecutions and the heavy sentences strike a lot of people as patently unfair as they see a grandma who wandered through the capital get jail time when a violent riotor does not.
Every time Trump gets indicted, his popularity goes up. This is so reliably true that a lot of Republicans now think that the Democrats WANT to run against Trump, and everytime it seems like he might fade they do something else to him that riles up the right again.
This should tell you something. If a candidate claims that there is a ‘deep state’ targeting him, and his voters believe him, indicting him on marginal charges was bound to increase his popularity. I have heard many Republicans say something along the lines of, “You know, I didn’t vote for Trump, and I always thought his yakkig about the ‘swamp’ was bullshit. But after seeing them throw everything they have at him to keep him off the next ballot, I’m starting to wonder…”
The left has not been covering itself in glory lately. The President is old (yes, Trump is old too, but Biden looks and acts old to a degree that Trump does not), the VP is an incompetent affirmative action pick, the border is open and a disaster, there are two wars going on, at least one of which is starting to look like it might end in failure (Ukraine), a portion of the left has taken a turn towards vocal support of a terrorist group and anti-semitism.
You guys have to stop saying the economy is great, posting unemployment and GDP numbers as if that proves it. When 85% of the public says the economy is bad, that’s not a messaging issue. If you don’t understand why they say that, maybe you should pay attention to what they are saying rather than rolling your eyes and quoting the unemployment numbers, or asking people who already agree with you. The wisdom of crowds isn’t always true, but you ignore them at your peril. If the polling on the economy was split right down partisan lines, I’d say it was a messaging issue. But when 84-85% of the public say it, they are seeing something you aren’t. For example:
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If you are retired, there is nothing good about this economy. Inflation has caused your fixed income to decrline and your assets to be devalued. Food and rent and energy are your major expenses, and all have gone up more than general inflation.
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If you already have a job, as most working Americans do, you don’t care about the unenmployment numbers. You DO care if your wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, which most people’s wages are not.
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Home ownership is now completely out of the reach of many young people, due to home price inflation and interest rates.
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gas prices and utility prices have increased more than inflation in many places, and these are major expenses for middle class Americans.
And any gains in GDP have to be counted against the 2 trillion dollars in spending of borrowed/printed money. That’s a significant percentage of GDP right there. The foolishness of huge deficit spending during times of resource shortages and low unemployment is going to come back as more inflation and interest rates remaining higher for onger than they otherwise would. Government deficit spending is why the central banks are refusing to lower interest rates. The governors of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England just admitted it.
The last reason Trump is still popular is because there is a conservative wave going across the world, and he’s benefiting from it. The Conservatives in Canada are now poised to win the most seats in Canadian history. Argentina remarkably elected a government-slashing libertarian in a landslide. There’s been a wave of conservative governments coming into power in Europe.
This is, in my opinion, a backlash against globalism, the lockdowns and mandates, etc. People got a taste for what it’s like to be ruled by some stranger in a far-off place during the pandemic, and they don’t like it. And unchecked immigration is a massive gift for nationalist politicians. The Hamas atrocities and the reactions to them by the millions of new immigrants in the west is going to further strengthen parties who demand strong borders.
I don’ agree with all this, but I hear it. People think the world has become unmoored, institutions are being revealed as corrupt or incompetent, the political leadership class is the worst we’ve ever seen, violence in the cities is up, etc. It’s not all economic news, but it all contributes to a feeling of failure and chaos descending on the world. That’s bad news for incumbents everywhere.