Because they forget 2004?
Exactly right. But unless those “early lines” were very extreme there is little significance to any information even well focused. Too far away.
Hard line Trumpists and heck hard line Far Rightists are loud right now. There is a primary season coming up and their beloved former president is, to their minds, being persecuted by a corrupt Democratic controlled deep state.
Even those us overall very pleased with Biden’s accomplishments are not very likely shouting about it. Many who will vote for him are less going to be voting for him than voting against the threats to what we value and to the world that the current GOP represents and has successfully implemented to scary degrees already. We do not have a Biden religious fervor.
Can’t use signs out as a sign of much.
I think you’re being too dismissive in classifying these as “culture war” issues, particularly the abortion issue.
When politicians are telling women that they can’t get health care, when they might have to wait until they’re at death’s door before it’s clear that the procedure is not an “abortion”, as defined by politicians, that’s not a culture war issue.
That’s a basic health care issue that might affect a woman’s life and health, not just “culture”.
ETA: and, it’s an issue that is gaining traction with women across party lines:
As for what is popular, if you can get through a WaPo paywall, a poll is here.
Biden should take positions he finds to be morally correct, regardless of the polling. That is – unless it is a matter of terminology, as in the definition of a woman. There he should just say “adult female,” refusing to elaborate. Long answers would be deadly.
If, when asked whether a teacher is sometimes justified in keeping the name or gender a student is known by in school from custodial parents, he can honestly respond with no, then his chances of winning the election are greater. If that’s his answer, I hope he is asked. And if he is thinks it is OK for public school teachers to keep such a secret, I hope he is never asked.
Someone might ask, what if Biden thinks it is extremely rare that a secret should be kept, but perhaps it should if, say, a custodial parent has an police-documented history of physical abuse and is being given a last chance? I’m afraid that there’s a point where one has to give up some nuance to beat DJT.
To keep Trump from running away with this thing, Biden needs to find a Sister Souljah moment where he takes a controversial within his base, but actually popular, position. Affirmative action could have worked, except that Joe Biden sincerely believes in reverse discrimination, and has said it. So, too late on that one. But trans kids could work because I don’t think he has said anything, so far, that would require a flip-flop. When he hosted a trans girl at the State of the Union last year, she was with her family.
From the poll it is clear that a broad consensus believe that trans individuals should not be discriminated against. There is no anti-trans consensus in this country per that poll.
Every question about trans issues Biden is asked needs to be answered by identifying how the GOP is passing laws to discriminate against them. It is also clear from the poll that many Americans are understandably confused about what treatment for gender dysphoria is teens is. Answers to all questions must include support of parents rights to make decisions for their children working with healthcare professionals of their choice, without hateful politicians getting in their very private business. No matter what he or you believe about gender identity. That healthcare guidelines try to avoid irreversible changes, in order to allow a person to be able to make the decision as an adult for themself. And that discrimination of their discordant gender identity, forcing them to act other than how they feel, how they identify, causes real harms.
If the questioner still notes that he never answered about respecting the name chosen by the child without informing the parent(s), answer that he parents and kids should have open loving and supportive relationships which schools must respect.
Cynically that will win the most votes: highlighting GOP discrimination in action and GOP interference with parental decision making. We can all be confused about the rest together.
Trump called it a landslide, but that doesn’t make it so. Hs 2016 win was close. So was his loss to Biden in 2020. In football terms, I’d say Trump won 2016 by a score of 21-20 with a last second field goal. Biden won 20-18 when Trump missed his last second field goal.
As for why he’s a viable candidate, it’s because Republicans would be dead in the water without his supporters. The last time a party had drifted too far away from center, Democrats gave up on insisting on a leftist and went with Bill Clinton. For whatever reason, Republicans decided that the lessons of 2008 and 2012 weren’t “we need to go with someone who’s at least perceived as a more moderate candidate so we can win over moderate Democrats (see Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan as examples)” but rather “we’re going to double down on the crazy.” And so we ended up with Trump.
But his endorsement hasn’t always been a guaranteed key to victory, has it?
No, but it’s been enough to keep things close, assuming Republicans still try the “double down on the crazy” strategy. If all the voters who are MAGAs but couldn’t give a rats ass about the Republican Party had stayed home in 2018, 2020, and 2022, Biden would have won in a landslide, the House would be safely Democratic, and the Senate with a filibuster proof majority. Yes, some far left types who only came out to vote against Trump would have stayed home. But the MAGAs outnumber the far left. The only other alternative would have been to move to the left to try to win with Reagan Democrats rather than MAGAs. And they just didn’t want to do that.
What do you think culture is? One of the casualties of the culture war is women’s health care. There’s no such thing as “just culture” because this kind of thing has a real impact on the lives of people.
He already has:
This is a great example, thanks for posting.
No question there are lots of ways for polling to be done poorly or misleadingly.
Which is why knowing the track record and potential leans of the different houses matters.
Polling also can be and is done well.
Who are the Conservatives? Six types of people.
Excerpt: (see link below, much deeper dive):
The Moderate Establishment (14%). Highly educated, affluent, socially moderate or even liberal and often outright Never Trump.
The Traditional Conservatives (26%). Old-fashioned economic and social conservatives who oppose abortion and prefer corporate tax cuts to new tariffs. They don’t love Mr. Trump, but they do support him.
The Right Wing (26%). They watch Fox News and Newsmax. They’re “very conservative.” They’re disproportionately evangelical. They believe America is on the brink of catastrophe. And they love Mr. Trump more than any other group.
The Blue Collar Populists (12%). They’re mostly Northern, socially moderate, economic populists who hold deeply conservative views on race and immigration. Not only do they back Mr. Trump, but he himself probably counted as one a decade ago.
The Libertarian Conservatives (14%). These disproportionately Western and Midwestern conservatives value freedom and small government. They’re relatively socially moderate and isolationist. Other than the establishment, it’s Mr. Trump’s worst group.
The Newcomers (8%). They don’t look like Republicans. They’re young, diverse and moderate. But these disaffected voters like Democrats and the “woke” left even less.
I like that taxonomy. Except where they keep mistakenly using the word “conservative” where the word “reactionary” applies.
He’s viable because his opponents don’t know how to fight him. And in their shoes I’d be frustrated too. This article talks about how the indictments will probably help him in his campaign.
That was me once, which makes sense given where I live and grew up.
But that was a while ago.
Morning Joe says poll numbers are starting to move against Trump:
Just one data point, but this is a new poll taken since the Georgia indictment fell:
It makes me smile.
Yep. Just like after the Access Hollywood tape came out.
From The Onion: