You are correct LSL. Trump is not clueless on how to manipulate and grift people. I wonder if he can tie his shoelaces though.
And yes, he is ruthless, and single minded. But that’s not working out too well.
I find fault with his parents for not instilling SOME kind of decency in him.
Hopefully, Barron is getting some of that, but that’s a long shot. A very, very long shot.
To the first: facts not in evidence. Most polling demonstrates that few who identify as independent are actually ever voting for other than one party. That said even the very few of them matter in very specific states.
To the second: moderates and so-called independents are very different groups with little overlap in today’s world. Many independents are not wanting to identify with the party they vote for because the party is too moderate for their taste. Yes even today’s GOP. And the Democratic Party is dominated by moderates. Appealing to them is what they do best of all. Getting them to get off their asses to vote is a different task.
I do not think he is diminished at all; he has always been a gaffe machine. The issue of age is, yes, GOP marketing aided and abetted by what makes good tv and social media, and actuarial.
The statistical odds of even a healthy very vibrant eighty plus man suddenly hitting the wall and aging very fast both cognitively and physically are significant. A few years younger matters. Trump is at high risk of death, from a heart attack or stroke most likely I’d WAG, but becoming suddenly more enfeebled cognitively than he is at baseline? Less risk. And like it or not the jerk succeeds at creating an image of having energy.
Well, his father’s father was a draft-dodger and a whoremonger, so I’m guessing decency was not a priority.
Prior to Trump, I think that sort of background alone would have kept a candidate out of contention. Trump has made vice a virtue. As has been said many times before, Trump’s base (in two senses of the word) wish they could get away with what Trump does. They blame The Others for their shortcomings, and Trump reenforces their beliefs. That’s why he’s still a viable candidate.
I didn’t understand the point about white people.
Just the fact that my rural nebraska people do not run into anyone but white people in their daily life. They cannot imagine a different cultural environment.
They are proud of having lived in the same county for generations.
I have a different hypothesis. I think there are very few swing voters. I think what it comes down to is the relative sizes of two groups. Moderate / traditional conservatives who plan to vote for Biden because they recognize Trump for what he is on the one hand. On the other hand, there’s far left liberals who will stay at home because they are more motivated to show up to vote against an incumbent Republican but tend stay home when there’s an incumbent moderate Democrat. The relative size of these two groups is what it’ll come down to.
But but but…the baseline is so low to begin with …
Thanks—I see what you mean.
@Dr_Paprika lets return to those voters who both are concerned about Biden’s age, maybe aren’t thrilled with him in general, and who are also concerned with Trump’s corruptness. Some of those may be in the undecided camp right now and answering the polls as neither of the above (NOTA) right now. Some of those voters will just stay home. Some will vote third party. Some will eventually swing one way or the other.
Do we data on them, the NOTA group? Why yes we do!
Of note:
If they vote they will be voting for no one … but against Trump much more likely than against Biden. The rub is that they are not reliable voters.
Fortunately we can rely on Trump to motivate them.
This is true for Democrats, according to polls, literally for every presidential election.
You are using logic. (comparing ages, saying it’s an equal gamble)
But politics today does not run on logic…it runs on image.
Trump projects an image of a robust, broad-shouldered man with cheering fans…
Biden projects and image of your 85 year old grandfather–a doddering old man, who you help walking up the stairs, and you definitely do not trust with your car keys.
And during the next year of heavy travelling and strenuous campaigning, those images will be critical.
For Trump–Maybe he will lose a bit of weight or look a little less robust than today.
But for Biden–there is no “maybe”. He surely will look even weaker and more doddering than today…
How old is the plant?
A lot can happen in a year. You know, quite a few Canadians essentially define themselves in terms of not being American. I never much liked that. Canadians are a thrifty, humourous, educated and creative people, much more diverse than the dated tropes Canadians too often rely on. We don’t need to compare and this navel gazing is a national weakness. And many Americans differ greatly from their stereotypes, like anyone else.
Trump changed what I think about Americans. About 15% of Canadians like Trump (less since January 6, but more in private than polling; probably about the same in practice). Hopefully his contrarian views more than his intolerance and constant snark; some find him entertaining or amusing, and he certainly can be if in a sufficiently surreal mood. Most Canadians are appalled by his obvious unsuitability for governance. The fact so many Americans can overlook that, for admittedly many different reasons, speaks to having very different values and leaves one’s judgement in question.
Obamacare is instructive. Though clearly flawed in many important ways, it brought better health care to many under impossible circumstances. For all their kvetching and pearl clutching over many years, the Republicans had bupkis to replace it in terms of pragmatic policy. A fact which supposedly surprised Trump, who is the last person who should have been surprised by this. So what freethinking patriot would trust them with democracy? What is the real plan after replacing the institutional memory, talent, ability and character of the military, civil service, diplomatic corps or experienced functionaries? It is easy to complain about the many mistakes made by Canadian politicians, but I show my naïveté in believing Trump could not be elected here despite a degree of charisma. Not after he stopped selling quality steaks and quality neckwear, anyway. Steaks are delicious, and even better with angry grandma chili crisp.
He could certainly be elected to Parliament, but I can’t see him as a party leader. Can you imagine Trump in the French-language debates?
It’s pretty old; there’s no mistaking that. The alternative plant, though almost as old, seems to some people to be more vibrant. But it’s actually an invasive species that’s out of control, like kudzu, and has done terrible things to its surrounding environment.
I believe Trump would use the best, greatest, most mellifluous, mellisonant and melodious French ever spoken. Ceci n’est pas un pope.
True and let me just restate that I’ve been always skeptical of the people out there (and some here) who talk about how he’s “two hamberders away” from keeling over. That’s not how health outcome statistics work, and yes he absolutely comes across more energetic. The average follower out there does not stop to consider that he is seeing agitation rather than vigor, he just can see energetic expression.
And side by side with this, there’s the enabler segment who will say to you “look, I don’t like it any more than you, JRD, but in this Real World the TRUTH is the aggressive a-holes rule. We don’t have to like it but we have to live with it and we can’t change it, might as well go along with it”.
Well FWIW statistically someone Biden’s age, condition, and lifestyle habits is more likely to be alive in five years than someone of Trump’s age etc.
Both have some actuarially positive factors: neither smokes nor drinks to excess; both are socially connected; and both are educated upper SES.
Trump’s morbid obesity, poor nutrition habits, and lack of adequate exercise (riding on a golf cart and frothing at the mouth hardly are enough) though place him in a higher future mortality group, a year or so younger not withstanding. Biden is closer to a healthy BMI, has better nutrition habits, and is more aerobically active. Likely more strength training too.
I could see Biden following in Carter’s longevity and healthspan path; I see no chance of Trump doing that.
But public perception is not based on health outcome statistics.
This is perhaps the most apt comparison of DJT that I can recall.
I see what you are saying. But the problem with both leading candidates is not that they are insufficiently nationally known. And it be seems to be giving away too much credit and power by saying candidates have accrued years of defamatory mudslinging AND yet are not well known nationally. Success at the state level might imply the tarnishing is of limited effect.
I see the media has been extremely successful in their efforts not to make everything about Trump this time around. Or not.
You seriously felt compelled to say this, given the notorious video of Trump needing help going down a relatively shallow ramp, from 3 years ago?